Big 10 split the No.1 spots


With the college football season working itself towards the finsih line the Big 10 are still atop my polls with Ohio State No.1 the Professional Model Theory poll (PMT) and Michigan State No.1 in the Professional Model Theory (PMT+) poll plus one other categorical variable. The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) finally cracks the Top 5 of the PMT+ poll with a dominating win against Miami (Fla). Sandwiched betweened Michigan State and Clemson are; Ohio State, Toledo and Temple. In the PMT poll, Temple, Toledo and Memphis follow behind the Big 10. It seems that the AAC and MAC are keeping pace and climbing within both polls to keep pace with the Big 10. The true Test for No.3 Temple (7-0) will be this week versus Notre Dame (6-1).

The college football season has always been an exciting season once we arrive at the half-mile pole of college football. Georgia Tech beats Florida State on a special teams play on a blocked field goal attempt. It seems that at this point of the college football season, its always the un-predictable time of the year. What the experts predict on outcomes of this college football season are usually wrong, thats why they are the experts. I let the games play out before I make any assumptions on who should be ranked or considered for the playoffs, unless my intuition tells me something.  As of this current point in the college football season there are tweleve (12) 0-loss FBS teams, thirteen (13) 1-loss FBS teams and sixteen (16) 2-loss FBS teams. These groups will dwindle down, they always do. It’s what my research tells me.Of those (12) 0-loss teams 25% are from the Non-BCS or Non Power 5 Conference; Temple, Toledo, Memphis and Houston. In the coming weeks, the AAC members will soon be scheduled against each other. Of the (13) 1-loss teams; 2 are from that same group of Non-BCS or Non Power 5 conference members; Marshall and Appalachian State.

As the college football season progresses forward, the month of November is going to be the most entertaining month for college football, that’s always the un-predictable month. Not sure what to expect but to expect the best games of all to be played. We have 0-loss programs that were not expected to be there at this point of the season from the sports media, and are just now receiving small credit from the media. I wonder what will happen if the only 0-loss FBS team remaining is from one of the Non-Power 5 or Non-BCS Conferences. We know they will be left out of the so called “playoffs” from the very inexpereicned playoff committee. With $50 Million dollars on the playoff table the committee will ALWAYS favor the Power 5 or BCS conferneces and programs. We will watch how the remaining 5 weeks of college football plays out. The scheduled match ups we are wanting to see play, are arriving soon. Be prepared for some upsets and close games. And now to this weeks rankings.

The rankings seem to change on a weekly basis with teams moving up and moving down. What remains the same is that the Big 10 are still atop of both the PMT and PMT+ polls. What does remain the same is that the SEC has only (1) 0-loss team left and thats #6 LSU in both polls. Here are my FBS college football rankings based upon my research.

Group 1: Professional Model Thoery (PMT)

OHIO STATE (8-0)  ↔
MICHIGAN STATE (8-0)  ↔
TEMPLE (7-0)  ↑ 2
TOLEDO (7-0)  ↓ 1
MEMPHIS (7-0)  ↑ 3
LSU (7-0)  ↑ 3
CLEMSON (7-0)  ↑ 3
IOWA (7-0)  ↓ 2
TCU (7-0)  ↓ 2
BAYLOR (7-0)  ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA STATE (7-0)  ↑ 2
HOUSTON (7-0)  ↑ 2
MARSHALL (7-1)  ↑ 4
ALABAMA (7-1)  ↑ 5
NOTRE DAME (6-1)  ↑ 1
UTAH (6-1)  ↓12
OKLAHOMA (6-1)  ↑ 3
STANFORD (6-1)  ↑ 3
FLORIDA (6-1)  ↓ 1
PITTSBURGH (6-1)  ↑ 3
APPALACHIAN STATE (6-1)  ↑ 4
DUKE (6-1)  ↑ 1
FLORIDA STATE (6-1)  ↓12
NORTH CAROLINA (6-1)  ↑ 2
WESTERN KENTUCKY (6-2)  ↓10
NEXT FIVE
BOWLING GREEN (6-2)  ↑
PENN STATE (6-2)  ↑
WISCONSIN (6-2)  ↑
BYU (6-2)  ↑
BOISE STATE (6-2)  ↑

Group 2 Professional Model Theory Plus one Categorical Variable

MICHIGAN STATE (8-0)  ↑ 1
OHIO STATE (8-0)  ↓ 1
TOLEDO (7-0)  ↑ 2
TEMPLE (7-0)  ↔
CLEMSON (7-0)  ↑ 4
LSU (7-0)  ↑ 2
IOWA (7-0)  ↓ 1
MEMPHIS (7-0)  ↑ 2
TCU (7-0)  ↓ 2
BAYLOR (7-0)  ↑ 3
OKLAHOMA STATE (7-0)  ↑ 1
HOUSTON (7-0)  ↑ 2
ALABAMA (7-1)  ↑ 3
MARSHALL (7-1)  ↑ 5
UTAH (6-1)  ↓12
FLORIDA (6-1)  ↓ 1
NOTRE DAME (6-1)  ↔
OKLAHOMA (6-1)  ↑ 3
STANFORD (6-1)  ↑ 1
PITTSBURGH (6-1)  ↑ 4
APPALACHIAN STATE (6-1)  ↑ 4
FLORIDA STATE (6-1)  ↓11
NORTH CAROLINA (6-1)  ↑ 3
DUKE (6-1)  ↑ 2
PENN STATE (6-2)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
WISCONSIN (6-2)  ↑
WESTERN KENTUCKY (6-2)  ↓
BOWLING GREEN (6-2)  ↔
NORTHWESTERN (6-2)  ↑
MISSISSIPPI STATE (6-2)  ↑

If you have any questions or comments about my rankings, please feel free to send comments to me and follow me on twitter  @cfbpoexpert


Book Update and New Release Time


To all the college football fans who would appreciate an expanded tournament style playoff bracket of more than 4 Power 5 FBS teams in the NCAA at the FBS level of college football. I authored and released a book in 2013 which is pictured on my webpage on the right side. I have taken on the subject matter again and that book although available now but not the one you should read. Proof reading what I wrote, I discovered that I left out some vital and pertinent information that is definatively needed to prove my point and support for a change for a 16-team playoff expanded format for college football at the FBS level of play in the NCAA. My research and playoff format allows all (128) and or future FBS programs an equal, fair and just opportunity to compete for the National Championship in college football at the FBS level of play in the NCAA and an opprtuinity to comepete for $50+ million dollars.

I have added 4 new chapters, added new tables, adjusted tables and data to support my findings, a secret chapter and changed the title. I am currently writing that secret chapter now which offers evidence and proof that certain rules have been broken and that those rules need to be brought to light. I am writing this book from a District Attorney’s positon who is trying a defendent on a first degree murder charge and I am that District Attorney with all the evidence and facts.

When you author a book and make any changes to that book, such as additional chapters or change in data, you need to re-apply for copyright protection and a new ISBN Library of Congress number. This does not mean that the book I authored already is not valid, just means that I am offering more supportive evidence and findings. You may ask why the long delay in re-release. When you work 70+ hours a week, you have time for a few pages here and there plus reflect on what you wrote.

My target time to be completed with this project from the writing sense is at the end of 2015, basically December 31, 2015. Once that is complete, I will proof read what I wrote again and then re-submit for copyright protection by the end of January 2016. Once I have obtained my new copyright, I will be looking for at least (20) volunteers to enter into a contractual agreement to read my book to offer thoughts and comments. The target date for consumer purchase will be on or just after July 1, 2016. Right before college football season starts up with the pre-season polls and conference media days.

The volunteers I am searching for are sports writers from across the country, atheltic directors outside of the FBS or FCS level of play, sports fans who possess an open mind  and passionate about college football when reading a topic of this magnitude, sports news casters who possess no ties to ESPN, FOX Sports, HLN Sports, NBC Sports, CNN Sports or any other major media sports outlet. As a volunteer you will enter into an agreetment that hold you to secrecy and not able to discuss the book and its contents until I officially release it to the general public. Specific details of being a volunteer to be the first to read my book will be released later when that time comes.

Could you be a volunteer? If you have any questions or would like to be considered as a volunteer to read my book before the general public please contact me either by:

email:     cfbpoexpert@gmail.com    or       Twitter:      cfbpoexpert

I look forward to your comments and the possibility of you being one of those (20) volunteers.


Ohio State remains No.1


It’s mid-October and we are about at the half-mile pole for college football with the cream slowly rising to the top, others gaining ground and some slipping into the pack. Of the field of (128) FBS programs, there are NO Secretariat’s in this group. Ohio State remains number 1 in both of my polls. Michigan State is a close second but actually stole a victory to stay at (7-0) and with pace with Ohio State. The Big 10 has established thier dominance this year but that can change as we head into the last half of the college football season. Utah, Temple and Toledo all exchange places as they settle in behind the leaders in the third through fifth positions.

The college football season has had many great games and non-historic FBS programs earning success this season, but not receiving the media credit coverage from print, radio and televised media that they deserve. Congratulations to Memphis at (6-0) from the American Athletic Conference(AAC), a Non Power 5 or Non BCS conference member.  Memphis started out being ranked in my polls at 10th and 11th, then 8th and 11th, last week 10th and 12th and this week 8th and 10th. Memphis has been consistant all season long, but no real mention in the media until now.

Yesterday, Memphis earns a program and conferene credibilty win against SEC member Mississippi. If I recall, was not Mississippi now (4-2), ranked in the top 10 in the preseason polls by the so-called experts and sports media.The only credit Mississippi has to thier credit is the win against Alabama. And NOW ESPN’s Mike and Mike and other college football shows in the sports media in print, radio and television are now showing slight interest. Seems that Memphis deserves more credit that what the media are offering. This also includes Toledo, Temple, Navy, Houston and Utah; they too deserve more media coverage. Oh wait, Toledo, Memphis, Houston, Navy and Temple are not Power 5 Conference members and are left on the back burner. Interesting that they pay the same NCAA and conference membership fees like the Power 5 conferences, compete on the same field of play as them but have to wait to receive media credibilty. That’s like the Kansas City Royals who have won the AL Central and hoping to play in thier second consecutive World Series. Interesting analogy is that the New York Yankees make the most money for MLB but finsihed behind Kansas City this season. Guess who is playing for the possibility to play in the World Series, not the Yankess. The Royals players and coaches EARNED that spot these past two seasons, not given to them. Maybe the sports media should immediately recognize when non-primary or Non-Power 5 FBS college programs are doing better than thier crystal ball expectations and predictions from the media and give them thier just due credit.

And now to this weeks rankings. There have been a few changes with FBS teams moving up, some moving down. As of the half mile pole of the FBS college football season there are (14) 0-loss and (15) 1-loss programs left in FBS colege football. From the 0-loss group; (12) are from the BCS/Power 5 Conferences and (4) are from the Non-BCS/Non-Power 5 conferences. Those (4) are Houston, Memphis and Temple all from the American Athletic Conference(AAC) and Toledo from the Mid-Amercian Conference(MAC). We know that only (1) from the AAC could emerge as the only 0-loss FBS program and still no media coverage. Below are the current rankings based upon my research and assessment on how college football should be ranked; not by popularity, confernece affiliation labels by the sports media mean nothing to me or which FBS progam generates the most revenue dollars is a non factor. Finally, congratulation to Appalachian State from the Sun Belt Conference (SBC) for cracking my Top 25. I hope they continue their success and end up at (11-1). We shall see.

Group 1 Rankings: Professional Model Theory

OHIO STATE (7-0)
MICHIGAN STATE (7-0)
TOLEDO (6-0) ↑ 3
UTAH (6-0) ↑ 1
TEMPLE (6-0) ↓ 2
IOWA (7-0) ↑ 1
TCU (7-0) ↑ 1
MEMPHIS (6-0) ↑ 2
LSU (6-0) ↑ 5
CLEMSON (6-0) ↑ 2
FLORIDA STATE (6-0) ↑ 4
BAYLOR (6-0) ↓ 1
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0) ↓ 4
HOUSTON (6-0) ↑ 2
WESTERN KENTUCKY (6-1) ↑ 2
NOTRE DAME (6-1) ↑ 3
MARSHALL (6-1) ↑ 6
FLORIDA (6-1) ↓ 15
ALABAMA (6-1) ↑ 9
OKLAHOMA (5-1) ↑ 7
STANFORD (5-1) ↑ 6
CALIFORNIA (5-1) ↑ 3
PITTSBURGH (5-1) ↑ 2
DUKE (5-1) ↓ 2
APPALACHIAN STATE (5-1) ↑ 1

Group 2: Professional Model Theory, plus one more categorical varaible

OHIO STATE (7-0)
MICHIGAN STATE (7-0)
UTAH (6-0) ↑ 1
TEMPLE (6-0) ↑ 1
TOLEDO (6-0) ↑ 1
IOWA (7-0) ↑ 1
TCU (7-0) ↑ 1
LSU (6-0) ↑ 5
CLEMSON (6-0) ↑ 1
MEMPHIS (6-0) ↑ 2
FLORIDA STATE (6-0) ↑ 3
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0) ↓ 3
BAYLOR (6-0) ↑ 3
HOUSTON (6-0) ↑ 1
FLORIDA (6-1) ↓ 12
ALABAMA (6-1) ↑ 11
NOTRE DAME (6-1) ↑ 2
WESTERN KENTUCKY (6-1) ↑ 2
MARSHALL (6-1) ↑ 6
STANFORD (5-1) ↑ 7
OKLAHOMA (5-1) ↑ 6
CALIFORNIA (5-1)
TEXAS A&M (5-1) ↓ 12
PITTSBURGH (5-1) ↑ 2
APPALACHIAN STATE (5-1) ↑ 1

The remaining last half mile of this college football season is going to get very interesting with upsets, great games. close games and a wire finish in the last 2-weeks of the season. Some that are ranked in my Top 25, are more than likely not going to be there in the last poll.

If there was a 16-team playoff format based upon my research findings and my book; the group of (29) FBS programs with 0-losses and 1-losses are 100% guarenteed a spot in the field of 16 when the final season completes itself. That means at the end of the FBS season, any 0-loss or 1-loss FBS program are guaranteed a spot in my field of 16. The group of (22) FBS programs with 2-losses have an 83% chance of making the field of 16. We shall see how the last half mile plays out.

If you have any questions or comments about my rankings, please feel free to send comments to me and follow me on twitter  @cfbpoexpert


Ohio State Remains No. 1 Michigan State and Florida change spots


Week three (3) of my college football polls have been interesting to compute, analyze and watch the many changes in positions occur as I collect the numerous amounts of data. Not much has really changed in the top spot of both of my two (2) polls. Ohio State (6-0) still remains as the number one (1) college football program in both polls. The next two (2) spots changed from the previous week with Michigan State and Florida battling it out for the ranking of 2nd and 3rd. In addition to Temple and Utah holding on to the 4th and 5th spots in Group 1. In the Group 2 rankings Michigan State and Florida change spots as well as Temple and Utah. There are many newly ranked FBS teams which I knew would make the rankings once the season started to get deeper into the college football season. As you read through my Top 25 rankings there have been some position changes both up and down.

As of this week in the 2015 college football season we are now down to (16) 0-loss programs and (20) 1-loss programs. This is due to the fact that the college football season is heading into conference play and conference play gets very competitive for all conferences, not just the Power 5 or BCS conferences. What my rankings offer is that all 128 FBS programs have an EQUAL opportunity to be ranked, not just the Power 5 or BCS conferences and schools.

This weeks rankings have every conference representation all except the Sun Belt Conference (SBC). The closests SBC member is Appalachian State at (4-1), which is in its second season as an FBS member and ranked number 32 out of 128. They have an outside chance to make my Top 25 and possibly make my field of 16 if they remain as a 1-loss FBS team. Here are my week six (6) college football Top 25 rankings in both groups. Group 1 is based upon the professional model theory and Group 2 is the professional model theory plus one additional categorical variable.

Group 1

OHIO STATE (6-0)
MICHIGAN STATE (6-0)
FLORIDA (6-0)
TEMPLE (5-0)
UTAH (5-0)
TOLEDO (5-0) ↑ 1
IOWA (6-0) ↑ 4
TCU (6-0) ↑ 4
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0) ↑ 5
MEMPHIS (5-0) ↓ 2
BAYLOR (5-0) ↑ 9
CLEMSON (5-0) ↑ 3
TEXAS A&M (5-0) ↓ 3
LSU (5-0) ↑ 2
FLORIDA STATE (5-0) ↑ 3
HOUSTON (5-0) ↑ 3
WESTERN KENTUCKY (5-1) ↑ 4
NOTRE DAME (5-1) ↑ 5
MICHIGAN (5-1) ↑ 6
PENN STATE (5-1) ↑ 7
OHIO (5-1) ↑ 8
DUKE (5-1) ↑ 9
MARSHALL (5-1) ↑ 10
BOISE STATE (5-1) ↑ 11
CALIFORNIA (5-1) ↑ 12
NEXT FIVE
NORTHWESTERN (5-1)
MISSISSIPPI (5-1)
ALABAMA (4-1)
UCLA (4-1)
OKLAHOMA (4-1)

Group 2

OHIO STATE (6-0)
MICHIGAN STATE (6-0) ↑ 1
FLORIDA (6-0) ↓ 1
UTAH (5-0) ↑ 1
TEMPLE (5-0) ↓ 1
TOLEDO (5-0) ↑ 1
IOWA (6-0) ↑ 3
TCU (6-0) ↑ 4
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0) ↑ 5
CLEMSON (5-0) ↑ 5
TEXAS A&M (5-0) ↓ 2
MEMPHIS (5-0) ↓ 1
LSU (5-0) ↑ 3
FLORIDA STATE (5-0) ↑ 4
HOUSTON (5-0) ↑ 4
BAYLOR (5-0) ↑ 4
MICHIGAN (5-1) ↑ 9
PENN STATE (5-1) ↑ 8
NOTRE DAME (5-1) ↑ 7
WESTERN KENTUCKY (5-1) ↑ 6
NORTHWESTERN (5-1) ↓ 11
CALIFORNIA (5-1) ↓ 4
OHIO (5-1) ↑ 3
DUKE (5-1) ↑ 2
MARSHALL (5-1) ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
BOISE STATE (5-1)
MISSISSIPPI (5-1)
ALABAMA (5-1)
UCLA (4-1)
OKLAHOMA (4-1)

I look forward to observing and anayizing how the remaining weeks of college football at the FBS season plays out. You might be surprized at how I believe the outcome will turn out.

As for an FBS statistical analysis of the FCS scheudling. As of the completion of week six (6) of the FBS season here are the results:

FBS programs are (90-9)  this 2015 FBS season with a win-loss percentage rate of (.909). Of those 90 wins by the FBS programs 74 have been won by 3 or more possessions. The FBS has outscored the FCS programs by a combined total number of 3041 points. The winning margin of victory by the FBS programs over the FCSprograms is consistent with and supprts my research by more than 4+ possessions at 30.7 points per game. The FBS programs are scoring on average 45.2 points per game, while the FCS programs are scoring on average of 14.5 points per game. There are 7 FBS/FCS scheduled games left in the 2015 FBS season; 4 for the SEC, 2 for the Independents and 1 for the ACC. Lets see how much further the statistical analysis gaps change and grow for the FBS programs between the FCs programs.

If you have any questions or comments about my rankings, please feel free to send comments to me  and follow me on twitter  @cfbpoexpert


CFB Top 25 Rankings.. Changes and Scares


Week 5 of college football produced some changes, surprises, and FBS programs that the sports media experts probably did not know would still be part of the 0-loss group. The Clemson/Notre Dame, Michigan State/Purdue and Ohio State/Indiana were great games and even close to being upsets.There are other great games that were played on college football Saturday.These just came to mind as I was preparing this post.

As of this week in CFB we currently have (20) 0-loss programs and (26) 1-loss programs. Next week we should see a 1-loss FBS program(s) reach my Top 25. As the CFB season progresses the rankings will start to almost look identical with some position differneces which are closely related to one another based upon the data and analysis used to determine the rankings. This means qauntifiable data and the professional model theory offer a true validity to reality in ranking CFB FBS programs. The human subjective polls and the (5) computer models are easily manipulated and lck quantifiable variables that were either left out of the mathematical equation on purpose or failed to think of those negative variables.

I did receive some feedback of both positive and negative on my first rankings. I thank you for the comments. I have made some slight changes in how the rankings will be posted, since many of you view web pages via your cell phone. However, this page is best viewed on your laptop or desktop screen.

How to review the rankings of both groups. FBS teams will be listed left (1) through (25), current overall record and postion difference from the previous week in which I ranked the FBS programs (1) through (25). The Next Five group are the FBS programs just out of the Top 25. Group 1 are my rankings based upon the professional model theory and Group 2 are ranked using the professional model theory, plus one more quantifiable variable.

Group 1

OHIO STATE (5-0) ↑ 1
MICHIGAN STATE (5-0) ↑ 3
FLORIDA (5-0) ↑ 3
TEMPLE (4-0) ↑ 3
UTAH (4-0) ↓1
OKLAHOMA (4-0) ↑ 2
TOLEDO (4-0) ↑ 2
MEMPHIS (5-0) ↑ 2
NORTHWESTERN (5-0) ↑3
TEXAS A&M (5-0) ↑ 5
IOWA (5-0) ↑ 7
TCU (5-0) ↑ 2
CALIFORNIA (5-0) ↑ 6
OKLAHOMA STATE (5-0) ↑ 6
CLEMSON (4-0) ↑ 6
LSU (4-0) ↑ 5
NAVY (4-0) ↑ 4
FLORIDA STATE (4-0) ↑ 3
HOUSTON (4-0) ↑ 2
BAYLOR (4-0) ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
WESTERN KENTUCKY (4-1)
NOTRE DAME (4-1)
STANFORD (4-1)
UCLA (4-1)
MICHIGAN (4-1)

Group 2

OHIO STATE (5-0) ↑ 2
FLORIDA (5-0)
MICHIGAN STATE (5-0) ↑ 2
TEMPLE (4-0) ↑ 5
UTAH (4-0) ↓ 4
OKLAHOMA (4-0) ↑ 1
TOLEDO (4-0) ↑ 2
NORTHWESTERN (5-0) ↑ 2
TEXAS A&M (5-0) ↑ 6
IOWA (5-0) ↑ 8
MEMPHIS (5-0)
TCU (5-0) ↑ 2
CALIFORNIA (5-0) ↑ 6
OKLAHOMA STATE (5-0) ↑ 6
CLEMSON (4-0) ↑ 6
LSU (4-0) ↑ 5
NAVY (4-0) ↑ 4
FLORIDA STATE (4-0) ↑ 3
HOUSTON (4-0) ↑ 2
BAYLOR (4-0) ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
WESTERN KENTUCKY (4-1)
NOTRE DAME (4-1)
MICHIGAN (4-1)
STANFORD (4-1)
UCLA (4-1)

As the CFB season progresses, the overall records will become more equal based upon total number of games played. From this group of 46, which will dwindle down to a group of 16 and will make up my playoff field of 16. Its too early to tell who will make the group of 16, let alone how the experts can verbalize who are the 4-teams in the College Football Playoff. I do not have a crystal ball like the sports media experts.

These rankings possess no bias or favortism towards any of the (128) FBS programs that compete in college football at the NCAA level. These ranking are researched based and quantifiable categorical variable related. Please offer any and all feedback to me in which group you like most based upon what you see through this website or send me comment on twitter.

Do share these rankings with your college football fans, friends and any sports media members you may know. I will post these rankings every week and now will make every effort to publish ra these rankings by 12 Noon on the following Sunday after college football Saturday.

Follow me on Twitter at      cfbpoexpert