College Football Increases the Excitement


With the last few weeks of college football remaining, the rankings are starting to stablize. Many top ranked teams either just surviving or playing hard enough to win the game. Did not Coach Jim Valvano say it best “Survive and advance”. The final weeks will determine who will make my field of sixteen (16) and which FBS teams will make the final four (4) for $50 Million dollars on the CFP table. As the college footbal season un-ravels, we now know that the pre-season rankings from the so called “experts” were wrong about the Southeastern Conference (SEC). The SEC seems to be leveling off and becoming not as dominant as they once were or ever were. If I recall did not the so called “experts” rank seven (7) SEC teams in the Top 25  in the pre-season, but but now we are down to two (2) maybe three (3) in the Top 25. I believe I saw crystal balls for sale from ESPN and their group of experts on EBAY and Craigslist; selling thier crystal balls that predicts accuracy and winners. Oh that’s the Future Prediction Indicator (FP)I model they created. I guess that’s why the coaches and athletes play the games versus relying on prediction models that are suppose to tell the college football fans who will win. I wonder what was the FPI rating was for LSU winning versus Arkansas yesterday from ESPN’s FPI model. How did that game turn out. I believe Arkansas won 31-14. Oh, the SEC only has two (2) 1-loss teams left. Maybe ESPN should just stick to reporting the games and leave the analysis to real experts. Stop trying to play the role of Karnak.

A Baylor loss dropped them from the group of 0-loss programs, which now leaves us with five (5) 0-loss programs. Ohio State (10-0) has Michigan State (9-1) and Michigan(8-2) left, Clemson has Wake Forest (3-7) and South Carolina (3-7) left,  Iowa has Purdue (2-8) and Nebraska (5-6) left, Oklahoma State has Baylor (9-1) and Oklahoma (9-1) left, Houston has Connecticut (5-5) and Navy (8-1) left. Which of these five (5) 0-loss teams will survive? That means we have four (4) from the Power 5 Conferences and one (1) from the Group of Five Conerences. So if Houston is the only remaining 0-loss team left, are they in? They should be but the bias CFP committee will leave them out. Can you say breach of the Sherman Act of 1890.  My insticts tell me that Ohio State and Oklahoma State will lose one (1) of thier remaning games. My insticts also tell me that both Florida (9-1) and Alabama (9-1) will both lose thier final game of the season with Florida State and Auburn. That would mean the SEC would all have teams with 2-losses or greater and should be left out of the CFP discussion.

This weeks rankings show that that the top five (5) stayed in the same ranking position and Notre Dame moved up one (1) with the Baylor loss to Oklahoma State. Losses in my rankings are more severe than rankings used by the subjective voters for the USA Today Amway Coches polls and the AP Poll. I use the professional model theory plus other categorical variables that create a more valid ranking based upon results, not an eye test. Within my rankings, there are (16) FBS teams that represent the Power 5 Conferences and (9) that represent the Group of 5 Conferences. Intersting how the Group of Five still do not get the recognition they deserve. Below are my rankings this week for college football.

GROUP 1 PMT RANKINGS

OHIO STATE (10-0)  ↔
CLEMSON (10-0)  ↔
IOWA (10-0)  ↔
OKLAHOMA STATE (10-0)  ↔
HOUSTON (10-0)  ↔
NOTRE DAME (9-1)  ↑ 1
OKLAHOMA (9-1)  ↑ 5
MICHIGAN STATE (9-1)  ↑ 2
FLORIDA (9-1)  ↑ 4
TCU (9-1)  ↑ 5
ALABAMA (9-1)  ↑ 5
NORTH CAROLINA (9-1)  ↑ 5
TOLEDO (8-1)  ↑ 5
NAVY (8-1)  ↑ 6
BAYLOR (8-1)  ↓ 9
MARSHALL (9-2)  ↑ 7
WESTERN KENTUCKY (8-2)  ↑ 4
BOWLING GREEN (8-2)  ↑ 6
TEMPLE (8-2)  ↓11
UTAH (8-2)  ↓11
MICHIGAN (8-2)  ↑ 5
STANFORD (8-2)  ↓11
WISCONSIN (8-2)  ↓1
MEMPHIS (8-2)  ↓10
APPALACHIAN STATE (8-2)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
NORTHWESTERN (8-2)  ↑
FLORIDA STATE (8-2)  ↑
GEORGIA SOUTHERN (7-2)  ↑
LSU (7-2)  ↓
USC (7-3)  ↑

GROUP 2 PMT + RANKINGS

OHIO STATE (10-0)  ↔
CLEMSON (10-0)  ↔
IOWA (10-0)  ↔
OKLAHOMA STATE (10-0)  ↔
HOUSTON (10-0)  ↔
NOTRE DAME (9-1)  ↑ 1
OKLAHOMA (9-1)  ↑ 5
MICHIGAN STATE (9-1)  ↑ 2
FLORIDA (9-1)  ↑ 4
TCU (9-1)  ↑ 5
ALABAMA (9-1)  ↑ 5
NORTH CAROLINA (9-1)  ↑ 5
TOLEDO (8-1)  ↑ 5
NAVY (8-1)  ↑ 6
BAYLOR (8-1)  ↓ 9
MARSHALL (9-2)  ↑ 7
WESTERN KENTUCKY (8-2)  ↑ 4
BOWLING GREEN (8-2)  ↑ 6
TEMPLE (8-2)  ↓11
UTAH (8-2)  ↓11
MICHIGAN (8-2)  ↑ 5
STANFORD (8-2)  ↓11
WISCONSIN (8-2)  ↓1
MEMPHIS (8-2)  ↓10
APPALACHIAN STATE (8-2)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
NORTHWESTERN (8-2)  ↑
FLORIDA STATE (8-2)  ↑
GEORGIA SOUTHERN (7-2)  ↑
LSU (7-2)  ↓
USC (7-3)  ↑

With the “down the stretch” weeks of college football remaining, the excitement and importance of each final game becomes increasingly important with $50 Million dollars on the table. Who will survive and advance.

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