CFP Playoff Field of 16 Mock 2017.3


This is the third installment of my MOCK college football playoff field of 16 for the FBS level of play. If only the power brokers of college football could see how this expanded playoff format would be more beneficial to the the fans of college football, then we woudl truly possess a real “National Champion”.

If you have followed along with my MOCK field of 16 as I have posted them throughout the course of this FBS season, you can admire the changes from week to week, in how the games have become more interesting as the season winds down. I believe that this type of playoff format would make for better entertainment and causes confusion amongst the television media on which game to show to the fans who cannot be in attendance. All 8 of these games would make for great television, viewership and media attention.

This is how the field of 16 would be seeded if the season were to have concluded this past weekend and the playoffs starting this following weekend:

16 SEED OHIO STATE (8-2) AT 1 SEED WISCONSIN (10-0)

9 SEED WASHINGTON STATE (9-2) AT 8 SEED USC (9-2)

12 SEED OKLAHOMA STATE (8-2) ST 5 SEED OKLAHOMA (9-1)

13 SEED NOTRE DAME (8-2) AT 4 SEED CENTRAL FLORIDA (9-0)

14 SEED BOISE STATE (8-2) AT 3 SEED MIAMI FLA. (9-0)

11 SEED SOUTH FLORIDA (8-1) AT 6 SEED GEORGIA (9-1)

10 SEED MEMPHIS AT 7 SEED CLEMSON (9-1)

15 SEED MICHIGAN AT 2 SEED ALABAMA (10-0)

If you examine the playoff pairings; of these 8 games, 3 of the games would be conference bragging rights or rematches between top programs. Three (3) of the games would have 3 FBS programs traveling some distance to play the games. However, in today’s scheduling of regualr season games; I don’t think traveling would a problem. With an average of 37+ Million fans that attend collge football games annually, I believe each of these games would be SOLD OUT. Can you imagine how much fun, excitement and media coverage the first weekend of December would be for college football with so much at stake.

The breakdown for the field of 16 based upon conference affiliation, numbers per conference, Power Five Conference and Group of Five Conference is; 12 FBS programs from the Power Five Conferences and 5 FBS programs from the Group of Five Conferences. ALL Power Five Connferences would possess representation into this field of 16. Is that not what the power brokers want. The opportunity to be part of the playoffs and not left out because of subectivity. The remaining 4 playoff spots would be secured by the Group of Five Conferences. I believe that ALL the Group of Five Conference programs want is the OPPORTUNITY to compete in the playoffs, compete for the $50 Million dollars on the table, the gold statue and the notoriety which comes along with being called ” National Champion”.

As for the breakdown for each conference;  the Power Five Conference breakdown is led by The Big 10, who would possess 3 seeds, the ACC, the Big 12, the Pac 12 and the SEC would each hold 2 seeds. Notre Dame would be the only Independent program represented in the playoffs. In addition to those 12 FBS programs, the Group of Five Conferences would be represneted with 3 FBS programs from the American Athletic Conference (AAC) and 1 FBS program from the Mountain West Conference (MWC).

In about two (2) weeks, I will publish the final pairings of my MOCK field of 16 for college football. In addition to the final posting I will even post how the playoffs would be played out in the month long tournament.

If you plan in using any of my ideas, thoughts or ranking to disucss publically in print, web based media postings or on air debates either in television or radio; please adhere to the APA/MLA policies and procedures when citing sources.

My book “College Football In The BCS Era The Untold Truth Facts Evidence and Solutions” (Siggelow, 2016); is the published research, The book is available at lulu.com


Wisconsin Remains #1 As The Unexpected Continues


From the Big 10 Conference, Wisconsin remains number one in my weekly poll for the fourth week in a row. Looking below Wisconsin in my college football poll, it seems there is constant movement of musical chairs being played as the college football season winds down in the home stretch. The upsets and unexpected outcomes of college football keeps happening. What many media members fail to understand is towards the end of the college football season, normalcy does not exist, but the unexpected seems to rear its ugly head. This causes a shake up with everyones polls, rankings, confidence levels, cognitive thoughts and the facing of the reality of how college football changes on a week to week basis. These types of changes are great for the sport of college football and those fans who enjoy the games, in addition to the possibility of expanding the playoffs.

With three (3) weeks remaining in the college football season, their are only four (4) 0-loss programs remaining. Of those 0-loss programs, Central Florida from the American Athletic Conference (AAC) is not receiving the credit or just due ranking either in the coaches poll or CFP polls, for their successful season in which they have earned, not given. I am the only one who ranks Central Florida in the Top Five (5). Central Florida ranks first in Offensive Efficiency with my rating system in which I designed and created. Central Florida’s Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) is at (.580). This means Central Florida’s scoring efficiency is based upon number of total game possessions both offensively and defensively, and turning those possession into points, at 58% of the time. Moreover, Central Florida ranks in the Top Half of all FBS programs in cumulative records within their non-conference scheduled opponents at a rate of (.536). I guess the CFP committee does not use all data points to give credit in ranking, where credit is due.

As we head into the final stretch run of college football, there are still MANY great games to be played with many more upsets to come. Here is my weekly Top Twenty-Five rankings:

A B C D E F
1 WISCONSIN (10-0) (.484) 86 (.488) 98 (.365) 128 (.467) 14
2 ALABAMA (10-0) (.533) 66 (.555) 54 (.388) 125 (.558) 3
3 MIAMI FLA. (9-0) (.750) 5 (.528) 70 (.400) 120 (.405) 41
4 CENTRAL FLORIDA (9-0) (.536) 64 (.533) 69 (.460) 92 (.580) 1
5 OKLAHOMA (9-1) (.387) 113 (.479) 103 (.468) 86 (.561) 2
6 GEORGIA (9-1) (.655) 22 (.593) 22 (.426) 111 (.464) 16
7 CLEMSON (9-1) (.567) 52 (.556) 53 (.491) 79 (.373) 61
8 USC (9-2) (.633) 25 (.557) 50 (.455) 99 (.415) 38
9 WASHINGTON STATE (9-2) (.500) 77 (.554) 55 (.470) 85 (.400) 42
10 MEMPHIS (8-1) (.536) 65 (.505) 88 (.460) 93 (.469) 13
11 SOUTH FLORIDA (8-1) (.194) 129 (.367) 130 (.408) 117 (.447) 24
12 OKLAHOMA STATE (8-2) (.345) 119 (.479) 105 (.484) 81 (.514) 6
13 NOTRE DAME (8-2) (.564) 57 (.639) 3 (.786) 1 (.426) 30
14 BOISE STATE (8-2) (.619) 33 (.553) 56 (.551) 29 (.427) 29
15 MICHIGAN (8-2) (.345) 118 (.538) 67 (.524) 49 (.353) 70
16 OHIO STATE (8-2) (.700) 12 (.567) 40 (.429) 108 (.530) 5
17 PENN STATE (8-2) (.517) 73 (.573) 36 (.524) 48 (.447) 23
18 SAN DIEGO STATE (8-2) (.633) 26 (.459) 108 (.429) 109 (.393) 47
19 ARMY (8-2) (.484) 87 (.418) 123 (.392) 124 (.444) 25
20 TOLEDO (8-2) (.464) 94 (.481) 102 (.521) 53 (.477) 10
21 OHIO (8-2) (.267) 125 (.382) 129 (.458) 98 (.475) 11
22 WASHINGTON (8-2) (.550) 58 (.518) 80 (.409) 116 (.479) 8
23 TCU (8-2) (.500) 78 (.518) 79 (.487) 79 (.381) 57
24 TROY (8-2) (.533) 67 (.394) 126 (.422) 114 (.344) 77
25 AUBURN (8-2) (.464) 95 (.604) 14 (.560) 24 (.474) 12

Key: A-Rank Order; B- Team and Current Overall Record; C- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Non-Conference Schedule and Rank within that Categorical Variable; D- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Overall Regular Season Schedule and Rank within that Categorical Variable; E- Percentage Rate of the ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Conference Schedule and Rank; and F- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Offensive Efficiency and Rank within that Categorical Variable.

As of this time of the current college football season there are 59 bowl eligible FBS programs with six (6) wins or more, and 21 more waiting in the wings with five (5) wins. There are three (3) weeks remaining in the season; there are plenty of opportunities for the 21 four (4) win FBS programs to earn bowl eligibility. Time is running out on some. Who will earn those bowl bids? How many FBS programs will become bowl eligible? We will find out soon.

If you plan in reciting any of my ideas, thoughts or rankings to disucss publically in print, web based media postings or on air debates either in television or radio; please adhere to the APA/MLA polocies and procedures when citing sources.

My book “College Football In The BCS Era The Untold Truth Facts Evidence and Solutions” (Siggelow, 2016); is the published research, The book is available at lulu.com