The 2017 College Football season has come to it’s regular season conclusion, all except for the Army/Navy game this weekend. When the college football season draws to a conclusion, this sport possesses a post season events like none other to end the calendar year. They call it bowl season and the College Football Playoffs. This is reletively a new tradition that was started in (1996) with a two team playoff format called the BCS. That was suppose to be the “best” way to determine college football’s national champion. However, after a 12-year run, it was determined that the BCS system was a bifurcated system and many were calling for expanding the playoffs. The decision to only select two FBS teams to compete became tougher, because other FBS programs with similar or better records were left out and did not know the reason why. The BCS system ran its course, which allowed the power brokers of college fooball, Mike Slive, Bill Hancock, ESPN and a few other big name college football commissioners; decided to expand the college football playoff to four teams. Let’s expand to four teams and guess what, lets have a committee of “experts” select the four teams, develop criteria, change the criteria, not sure which criteria to use, have committee members who need to be excused from the selection process due to the fact that they are related to a member on the football team or represent that school.
This is where we are now in its early stages, a four team college football playoff (CFP) and after 4 years of this new tradition, the fans are ready for expansion and the “sports media experts” are already talking about expanding the playoffs as a topic, but with no real crystal clear cognitive thoughts on how to explain their reasoning. Becuase they believe they are the “experts” with a platform and voice with microphone or television camera, makes them more knowledgeable then someone with a degree, authored a book, performed research and already investigated the expanded the college football playoff concept. I believe that college football at the FBS level of play, under the NCAA blue logo and allows all FBS members a fair, equal and just opportunity to compete for the $50 MIllions dollars at stake, the gold statue and the notoriety that comes along with winning the national championship and being called a “National Champion” in college football at the highets level.
For the past 10+ years now I have performed a MOCK selection and seeding my field of 16 for college football at the FBS level. I started with the 1996 college football season, and continues to seed and select the current and future college football season. The reason why, is to prove that an expanded playof format can be implimented at this level of college athletics. If I can demonstrate that an expanded playoff format can be implimented based upon research, selection and seeding based upon criteria, then this would provide me with strategic positioning. I developed a ranking and selection system which is based upon the current season, many categorical variables, examines the current scheduled season and developed criterion on how each FBS teams should be ranked. I possess no biases and I treat each FBS team as equals. All playing under the same rules. For those who are going to ask, how do you rank, seed and select for your MOCK field of 16? I use the professional model theory to rank, seed and select my field of 16. I have been performimg MOCK playoff fields since (2007). Yes, it can be done ranking 1 through 130 FBS teams with not worrying about conference affiliation or member name. Each FBS team is ranked by the criterion in which I developed. My system is more accurate and provides a better playoff picture allowing more FBS programs a playoff opportunity without eliminating any bowl games.
From what my research has discovered, is that every 0-loss team and 1-loss team at the end of the regular season would make the field of 16. All 2-loss programs have an 83% success rate of making my mock field of 16. Yes, it is possible for a 3-loss team to make my field of 16 but only at a 38% chance. That means, that during the course of the college football season, that any FBS team does not have to worry about losing 1 game or requiring them to complete the season with no losses in any games. My expanded playoff format of 16 would significantly decreases emotional and mental pressure from both coaches and players to end the season at 0-losses and placing the fate of their playoff hopes in the hands of a subjective, Democritusly driven and biofurcated system. A loss is a loss. A win is a win. There are no bad losses or good losses. No need to split hairs and try to scrutinze or provide an answer to the reason. No need for a committee to select or seed. All the players and coaches would have full comprehension of how the playoff system, format and selection process works.
I will now present my 2017 MOCK playoff field for college football at the FBS level of play, under the NCAA blue logo. ALL FBS teams are eligible to compete under my research, system and theory. The ONLY way an FBS football program is not eligible to compete for my playoff format is if they are UNDER NCAA violations and or sanctions, which automatically eliminates them from competing in post season.
ALL GAMES BELOW start on the First WEEKEND of December and SEEDS 1 THROUGH 8 RECEIVE Home field advantage becaused they earned it based upon data and records earned.
|16 WASHINGTON (10-2)||1 WISCONSIN (12-0)||80321||$9.5 MIL|
|9 USC (10-2)||8 MEMPHIS (10-1)||62380||$7.7 MIL|
|12 SAN DIEGO STATE (10-2)||5 CLEMSON (11-1)||81500||$9.6 MIL|
|13 TOLEDO (10-2)||4 GEORGIA (11-1)||92746||$10.5 MIL|
|14 TROY (10-2)||3 OKLAHOMA (11-1)||86112||$10.1 MIL|
|11 PENN STATE (10-2)||6 ALABAMA (11-1)||101821||$11.6 MIL|
|10 OHIO STATE (10-2)||7 MIAMI FLA (10-2)||65326||$8.0 MIL|
|15 AUBURN (10-2)||2 CENTRAL FLORIDA (11-0)||45323||$6.0 MIL|
Last Team Out: TCU (10-2)
The breakdown per conference relationship: American Athletic Conference 2, Atlantic Coast Conference 2, Big 10 Conference 3, Big 12 Conference 1, Southeastern Conference 3, Pac 12 Conference 2, Mountain West Conference 1, Mid American Conference 1, Sun Belt Conference 1, Not represented: Conference USA and the Independents. With this format their will be plenty of represnetation, just not the Power Five Conferences.
Estimated revenue possibly generated from these 8 playoff games: $72+ Million Dollars, exlcuding any advertising dollars and television dollars.
GRID EXPLANATION: A- Visiting Team and Record; B- Home Team and Record, (NOTE: I DO NOT COUNT CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES, explanation below); C- Stadium Seating Capacty of the HOME TEAM and D- Estimated Revenue possibly generated by Ticket Sales, Concessions, Parking, Souvenirs and Tax Based Dollars and Ripple effect by these games in that specific area or region of the country that effects businesses.
Conference championship games are only an extra game to help determine who the conference champion is and not automatically scheduled. The conference championship games are earned, not entitled. If my expanded playoff format were to be implimented, then the conference championship games would be replaced by the first round of 16, on the first weekend of December. The second week of December is scheduled for Acadmics Final week. Student Athletes need time to take their final exams to remain eligible as student athletes for the second semester and the bowl season. The winners of the first round of 16 games will move forward to play in first set of bowl games on the third weekend of December when bowl season starts.
Winner of Seed 16 and 1 will play Winner of Seed 8 and 9
Winner of Seed 12 and 5 will play Winner of Seed 13 and 4
Winner of Seed 14 and 3 plays Winner of 11 and 6
Winner of Seed 10 and 7 plays the Winner of Seed 15 and 2
This creates four more games and use of the four early bowl games to add more revenue and more excitement. Keep the bowl game names and game dates in tact but move the bowl game sites to another location to increase seating capcacity. This would create an exponential influx of revenue, advertising dollars and significantly improve the beginning of bowl season with games that possess meaning and purpose. Each of these Quarter-Final Games would more than likely sellout, generate more revenue and fan interest. You do realize that there are 37+ Million college football fans across America.
Once these four games are decided then the four winners advance to the Semi Final Bowl Games and Championship Game which are already in place and sites already established. With this playoff format, the college football season DOES NOT start any earlier than scheduled within the rules and bylaws of the NCAA guidelines and DOES NOT end any later than the college football season that ends now. NO DRASTIC changes.
I believe that the exponential financial growth from an expanded playoff format such as the one I developed, would generate in upwards of $250 MIllion Dollars over the course of the college football playoff format. This is all hypothetical because the power brokers fear a playoff expansion due to the fact they want to control every part of the system.
In conclusion, the playoff system we have now for college football may be better. However, with that said, the committee has a tough job in selecting and seeding four FBS college football teams and making it right. Furthermore, the criterion in which they are to use is always ever changing. There is no one specific criterial process in which they follow. It’s very sad for those FBS programs within the Group of Five Conferences to work so hard, achieve greatness and sometimes end with 0-losses. All to find out that they will NEVER compete for the $50 Million Dollar prize, the gold statue and the notoriety that comes with being called “national champion”. It’s time to seriously think about expanding the playoffs for college footbal and increasing the number to 8 then 16. Either way 8 and 16 work.
If you plan on using any of my ideas, thoughts or rankings to discuss publically in print, web based media postings or on air debates either in television or radio; please adhere to the APA/MLA policies and procedures when citing sources.
My book “College Football In The BCS Era The Untold Truth Facts Evidence and Solutions” (Siggelow, 2016); is the published research, The book is available at lulu.com