Clemson and Iowa are atop the Polls


This past weekend of college football was very precitible, entertaining and lots of games that made the weekend full of excitement. After Ohio State and Oklahoma State losses this past wekeend, it allowed Clemson and Iowa to move into the top two (2) spots. Interesting Iowa has not been getting the ranking they deserve but remain as a 0-loss FBS program. Clemson and Iowa are both (11-0) heading into this weeks final games for them and could maintain as the only two (2) 0-loss FBS prorgams. This is what my research proved, that during the course of the college football season that on average only 2.5 FBS teams will remain un-beaten or as 0-loss programs. You cannot say Clemson and Iowa have not earned the top spots this season to this point in time. As for the rest of the FBS programs, those with 0-losses earned their first loss. With Clemson and Iowa at (11-0), thay have already secured a spot in my field of 16 mock playoff system. With 14 spots remaining which of the remaining twelve (12) 1-loss teams will earn their spot and which of those 1-loss teams will be dropped to the 2-loss group. My research proved that all 1-loss FBS programs would earn a spot in the field of 16 in my mock playoff brackets. Now the ultimate question is, which of the 2-loss programs will stay at two (2) losses to be evaluated for the remaning spots after all the 0-loss and 1-loss teams are seeded?

Now the most interesting moments of this past weekends college football season was the struggles that the Southeastern Conference (SEC) had with the Sun Belt, Conference USA and an FCS program. The upset of the week goes to the Academy at Citadel for beating South Carolina 23-22. Then to add to that, Florida (9-1) struggles with (2-8) Florida Atlantic, needing overtime to squeak the victory away from them 20-14. Speaking of overtime, Georgia (7-3) needed overtime to squeak by Georgia Southern (7-2) 23-17. To add to those three (3) games, Auburn (5-5) needed to play a stronger second half to pull away from Idaho (3-7) 55-34. Seems to me that the SEC has lost its dominance, but the voters and CFP commiteee just does not see it that way. The SEC does have a media and CFP committee bias. They wont admit it, but its clearly evident.

The rankings this week showed many changes since the weekend created many losses with FBS teams that you thought would win, but did not. Tell me ESPN, how is that FPI rating system working for you? In time studies and research will be performed on that provings it not a viable or credible metric or data point to rank FBS football programs. As the season progressed the cream usually rises to the top of the forefront. Now for my weekly rankings for FBS college football. Remember there are two (2) types of rankings, PMT for the Professional Model Theory and the PMT+ which is the Professional Model Theory plus other categorical variables.

The rankings below are from my statistcal analysis and data collection experience and expertise on college football ranking systems.

PMT Rankings:

CLEMSON (11-0)  ↑ 1
IOWA (11-0)  ↑ 1
NOTRE DAME (10-1)  ↑ 3
OKLAHOMA (10-1)  ↑ 3
MICHIGAN STATE (10-1)  ↑ 3
OHIO STATE (10-1)  ↓ 5
FLORIDA (10-1)  ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA STATE (10-1)  ↓ 4
HOUSTON (10-1)  ↓ 4
ALABAMA (10-1)  ↑ 1
NORTH CAROLINA (10-1)  ↑ 1
TOLEDO (9-1)  ↑ 1
NAVY (9-1)  ↑ 1
BAYLOR (9-1)  ↑ 1
WESTERN KENTUCKY (9-2)  ↑ 2
TEMPLE (9-2)  ↑ 3
MICHIGAN (9-2)  ↑ 4
STANFORD (9-2)  ↑ 4
MARSHALL (9-2)  ↓ 3
NORTHWESTERN (9-2)  ↑ 6
FLORIDA STATE (9-2)  ↑ 5
TCU (9-2)  ↓12
APPALACHIAN STATE (8-2)  ↑ 2
BOWLING GREEN (8-3)  ↑ 2
UTAH (8-3)  ↓ 5
NEXT FIVE
UCLA (8-3)  ↑
WISCONSIN (8-3)  ↓
BYU (8-3)  ↑
MEMPHIS (8-3)  ↓
PITTSBURGH (8-3)  ↑

PMT+ Rankings

CLEMSON (11-0)  ↑ 1
IOWA (11-0)  ↑ 1
NOTRE DAME (10-1)  ↑ 3
MICHIGAN STATE (10-1)  ↑ 5
FLORIDA (10-1)  ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA (10-1)  ↑ 2
OHIO STATE (10-1)  ↓ 6
ALABAMA (10-1)  ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA STATE (10-1)  ↓ 5
HOUSTON (10-1)  ↓ 5
NORTH CAROLINA (10-1)  ↔
NAVY (9-1)  ↑ 1
TOLEDO (9-1)  ↑ 2
BAYLOR (9-1)  ↔
MICHIGAN (9-2)  ↑ 3
STANFORD (9-2)  ↑ 3
TEMPLE (9-2)  ↑ 6
WESTERN KENTUCKY (9-2)  ↑ 4
NORTHWESTERN (9-2)  ↑ 7
FLORIDA STATE (9-2)  ↑ 6
TCU (9-2)  ↓9
MARSHALL (9-2)  ↓6
APPALACHIAN STATE (8-2)  ↑ 2
UTAH (8-3)  ↓ 7
UCLA (8-3)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
BOWLING GREEN (8-3)  ↓
WISCONSIN (8-3)  ↓
MEMPHIS (8-3)  ↓
PITTSBURGH (8-3)  ↑
BYU (8-3)  ↑

Seems that the AAC has been consistent week to week in my polls as the SEC has many dropped from my polls.  At the end of the CFB/FBS season, I will publish several posts that are statistically driven to show evidence of what the committee and subjective voters fail to see, recognize or even report on. Thus poroving that there are hidden biases in college football at thi s

To the sports media, If you use any of my postings for your own in comments within your publishings or articles or posts, this includes use of radio and television broadcast’ please use the APA/MLA format and cite the the source.

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here or through twitter at     cfbpoexpert.com


Week 3 of the CFP Predictions


The committee is getting more and more predictible by the week. Interesting that I can prepare a CFP Prediction Rankings in less time that the actual committee takes in deliberating how to rank the CFP Top 25. Last week in comparison to the CFP Top 25 and my predictions, again I was 96% accruate in selecting the pool of 25. I had Mississippi in the CFP Top 25 and the inexperienced committee selected Wisconsin. As for placement accruacy, I was 32% accurate. That’s up 400% from the first weeks rankings with many of the ranked FBS teams off by one spot. Either I had a ranked FBS team higher or lower by one position difference. Let’s see how I do this week in the prediction of the CFP Top 25.

The final weeks of the season are going to be crazy and more crazier as the final week approaches. FBS teams that you thought would win struggle and lose, fail to play to their potetnial and escape with a win or lose all together on last series by opponents. What will this week bring in college football? It seems with 2 or 3 games left in the season, depending on which FBS program and conference you are in, the excitement is just beginning. As for one of the higher ranked FBS programs in the CFP poll, they have a simple week this week. More specifically the Southeastern Conference (SEC) or who I call the Schedule Easy Conference. This week #2 rankes Alabama and in my rankings #11 Alabama scheduled an FCS game at HOME versus Charleston Southern. Research tells me that Alabama will win by 4+ posessions, meaning 28 points or more. But would it not be apprapoah if FCS Charleston Southern pulled the late season FCS upset over Alabama and put the crowning moments on the SEC’s chances of being selected as one of the four in the CFP playoffs. Oh wait, it would have to take more than that for the SEC to be left out of the field of four, since the chair of the CFP is SEC Athletic Director from Arkansas; Jeff Long. In addition to, the founding fathers of the BCS and CFP are all SEC related. Guess we will find out when Auburn and Florida State put a monkey wrench in to the whole process at the end of the season over Thanksgiving weekend, by giving Florida and Alabama their second loss and all SEC programs possessing at least 2-losses or more.

Now for my prediction on how the CFP Committee will rank the FBS prorgams one (1) through twenty-five (25) this week.

CFP PREDICITON RANKINGS

CLEMSON (10-0)
ALABAMA (9-1)
OHIO STATE (10-0)
OKLAHOMA STATE (10-0)
NOTRE DAME (9-1)
IOWA (10-0)
FLORIDA (9-1)
OKLAHOMA (9-1)
MICHIGAN (8-2)
MICHIGAN STATE (9-1)
TCU (9-1)
NORTHWESTERN (8-2)
BAYLOR (8-1)
FLORIDA STATE (8-2)
STANFORD (8-2)
HOUSTON (10-0)
UTAH (8-2)
NORTH CAROLINA (9-1)
LSU (7-2)
WISCONSIN (8-2)
NAVY (8-1)
MEMPHIS (8-2)
MISSISSIPPI (7-3)
TOLEDO (8-1)
MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-3)

I do believe that I have probably increased my placement accuracy this week. I do believe I might have 50% or greater this week in placement accuracy. We shall see.

See the CFP Committees job is not that hard. I can do it without needing three (3) days to debate and argue. However, I woul rank differently as you can see by how I rank.

To the sports media, If you use any of my postings for your own in comments within your publishings or articles or posts, this includes use of radio and television broadcast’ please use the APA/MLA format and cite the the source.

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here or through twitter at     cfbpoexpert.com


College Football Increases the Excitement


With the last few weeks of college football remaining, the rankings are starting to stablize. Many top ranked teams either just surviving or playing hard enough to win the game. Did not Coach Jim Valvano say it best “Survive and advance”. The final weeks will determine who will make my field of sixteen (16) and which FBS teams will make the final four (4) for $50 Million dollars on the CFP table. As the college footbal season un-ravels, we now know that the pre-season rankings from the so called “experts” were wrong about the Southeastern Conference (SEC). The SEC seems to be leveling off and becoming not as dominant as they once were or ever were. If I recall did not the so called “experts” rank seven (7) SEC teams in the Top 25  in the pre-season, but but now we are down to two (2) maybe three (3) in the Top 25. I believe I saw crystal balls for sale from ESPN and their group of experts on EBAY and Craigslist; selling thier crystal balls that predicts accuracy and winners. Oh that’s the Future Prediction Indicator (FP)I model they created. I guess that’s why the coaches and athletes play the games versus relying on prediction models that are suppose to tell the college football fans who will win. I wonder what was the FPI rating was for LSU winning versus Arkansas yesterday from ESPN’s FPI model. How did that game turn out. I believe Arkansas won 31-14. Oh, the SEC only has two (2) 1-loss teams left. Maybe ESPN should just stick to reporting the games and leave the analysis to real experts. Stop trying to play the role of Karnak.

A Baylor loss dropped them from the group of 0-loss programs, which now leaves us with five (5) 0-loss programs. Ohio State (10-0) has Michigan State (9-1) and Michigan(8-2) left, Clemson has Wake Forest (3-7) and South Carolina (3-7) left,  Iowa has Purdue (2-8) and Nebraska (5-6) left, Oklahoma State has Baylor (9-1) and Oklahoma (9-1) left, Houston has Connecticut (5-5) and Navy (8-1) left. Which of these five (5) 0-loss teams will survive? That means we have four (4) from the Power 5 Conferences and one (1) from the Group of Five Conerences. So if Houston is the only remaining 0-loss team left, are they in? They should be but the bias CFP committee will leave them out. Can you say breach of the Sherman Act of 1890.  My insticts tell me that Ohio State and Oklahoma State will lose one (1) of thier remaning games. My insticts also tell me that both Florida (9-1) and Alabama (9-1) will both lose thier final game of the season with Florida State and Auburn. That would mean the SEC would all have teams with 2-losses or greater and should be left out of the CFP discussion.

This weeks rankings show that that the top five (5) stayed in the same ranking position and Notre Dame moved up one (1) with the Baylor loss to Oklahoma State. Losses in my rankings are more severe than rankings used by the subjective voters for the USA Today Amway Coches polls and the AP Poll. I use the professional model theory plus other categorical variables that create a more valid ranking based upon results, not an eye test. Within my rankings, there are (16) FBS teams that represent the Power 5 Conferences and (9) that represent the Group of 5 Conferences. Intersting how the Group of Five still do not get the recognition they deserve. Below are my rankings this week for college football.

GROUP 1 PMT RANKINGS

OHIO STATE (10-0)  ↔
CLEMSON (10-0)  ↔
IOWA (10-0)  ↔
OKLAHOMA STATE (10-0)  ↔
HOUSTON (10-0)  ↔
NOTRE DAME (9-1)  ↑ 1
OKLAHOMA (9-1)  ↑ 5
MICHIGAN STATE (9-1)  ↑ 2
FLORIDA (9-1)  ↑ 4
TCU (9-1)  ↑ 5
ALABAMA (9-1)  ↑ 5
NORTH CAROLINA (9-1)  ↑ 5
TOLEDO (8-1)  ↑ 5
NAVY (8-1)  ↑ 6
BAYLOR (8-1)  ↓ 9
MARSHALL (9-2)  ↑ 7
WESTERN KENTUCKY (8-2)  ↑ 4
BOWLING GREEN (8-2)  ↑ 6
TEMPLE (8-2)  ↓11
UTAH (8-2)  ↓11
MICHIGAN (8-2)  ↑ 5
STANFORD (8-2)  ↓11
WISCONSIN (8-2)  ↓1
MEMPHIS (8-2)  ↓10
APPALACHIAN STATE (8-2)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
NORTHWESTERN (8-2)  ↑
FLORIDA STATE (8-2)  ↑
GEORGIA SOUTHERN (7-2)  ↑
LSU (7-2)  ↓
USC (7-3)  ↑

GROUP 2 PMT + RANKINGS

OHIO STATE (10-0)  ↔
CLEMSON (10-0)  ↔
IOWA (10-0)  ↔
OKLAHOMA STATE (10-0)  ↔
HOUSTON (10-0)  ↔
NOTRE DAME (9-1)  ↑ 1
OKLAHOMA (9-1)  ↑ 5
MICHIGAN STATE (9-1)  ↑ 2
FLORIDA (9-1)  ↑ 4
TCU (9-1)  ↑ 5
ALABAMA (9-1)  ↑ 5
NORTH CAROLINA (9-1)  ↑ 5
TOLEDO (8-1)  ↑ 5
NAVY (8-1)  ↑ 6
BAYLOR (8-1)  ↓ 9
MARSHALL (9-2)  ↑ 7
WESTERN KENTUCKY (8-2)  ↑ 4
BOWLING GREEN (8-2)  ↑ 6
TEMPLE (8-2)  ↓11
UTAH (8-2)  ↓11
MICHIGAN (8-2)  ↑ 5
STANFORD (8-2)  ↓11
WISCONSIN (8-2)  ↓1
MEMPHIS (8-2)  ↓10
APPALACHIAN STATE (8-2)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
NORTHWESTERN (8-2)  ↑
FLORIDA STATE (8-2)  ↑
GEORGIA SOUTHERN (7-2)  ↑
LSU (7-2)  ↓
USC (7-3)  ↑

With the “down the stretch” weeks of college football remaining, the excitement and importance of each final game becomes increasingly important with $50 Million dollars on the table. Who will survive and advance.

To the sports media, If you use any of my postings for your own in comments within your publishings or articles or posts, this includes use of radio and television broadcast’ please use the APA/MLA format and cite the the source.

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here or through twitter at     cfbpoexpert.com


Week 2 of CFP Predictions


The CFP committee will release their College Football Rankings which has a direct effect on which four (4) FBS programs, oh mis-spoke, which four (4) Group of Five FBS programs will compete for the $50 Million Dollar prize at the end, plus being called National Champion for college football at the NCAA level. I am sorry Houston, even if you are the only 0-loss program left standing at the end of the FBS season before the committee makes thier FINAL selection, you will not be invited and biasly left out based upon your classification status in college football at the FBS level in the NCAA. Eventhough you pay the same memberhsip fee to the NCAA as the Group of Five, you are not part of the “Roman Empire”. If it were me making the selection, you would be the Number 1 seed in the final rankings. The committee released their first rankings last week and I was correct on 96% percent of the selected pool or field with 8% correct on accruate placements. I will work on improving my placement accurcy this week. I selected North Carolina in the pool of 25 and the committee selected Northwestern in the pool of 25.

Let’s move to week two (2) for the CFP selection committee and I will continue to make my predictions again with an adjustment to my CFP rankings. I do believe, I have the committee figured out. Intersting, I am not in the room and I can select and rank the CFP Top 25 in a matter of minutes not days. The first rankings were released with all great quality FBS college football programs and then by the following Saturday of college football we had seven (7) of the Top 25 lose. Nerves or did those teams lose to quality FBS programs under the sports quote “on any given day ,at any given time, anyone can beat anyone”. Well that holds true.

Here is my predictions, not my rankings, on how the CFP Top 25 will look tonight from the very in-experienced CFP committee.

CFP PREDICTION in rank order

CLEMSON (9-0)
ALABAMA (8-1)
OHIO STATE (9-0)
OKLAHOMA STATE (9-0)
NOTRE DAME (8-1)
BAYLOR (8-0)
IOWA (9-0)
STANFORD (8-1)
FLORIDA (8-1)
UTAH (8-1)
OKLAHOMA (8-1)
LSU (7-1)
MEMPHIS (9-0)
TCU (8-1)
MICHIGAN (7-2)
MICHIGAN STATE (8-1)
MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-2)
NORTHWESTERN (7-2)
TEMPLE (8-1)
FLORIDA STATE (7-2)
HOUSTON (9-0)
UCLA (7-2)
NORTH CAROLINA (8-1)
MISSISSIPPI (7-3)
NAVY (7-1)

I gave my rankings some thought with this very sensitive ranking subject matter. Rather than rank this group, since $50 Million Dollars is on the line, national prestige and the trophy that comes with it. I used my athletic directors and coaches mind set to rank these teams differently. Why differently you may ask. I believe that with the pressure that comes with college athletics at this level, the money that is involved, very LIMITED access to $50 Million Dollars with 3.6% of the FBS pool being selected and the level of athletic competition; that other factors go into account for rankings. That’s why you see a 0-loss or 1-loss FBS programs lose after the first CFP ranking when you think they should not lose. The loss happens as we saw last weekend when seven (7) CFP Top 25 FBS programs lost due to the level of competition and what is on the line. Their rankings will be effected this week, that’s just common sense.

When a prestiguous program receives a high ranking in the CFP polls, attentional focus is affected, and the mind set changes based upon the number or rank associated with your ranking. That number association with your rank is a sports societal pressure. Something that the sports media has no direct relation to or comprehension skill to associate with in what it’s like to be being placed in that type of position with performance anxiety and attentional focus effected. The sports media can not even come close to what these student athletes are going through since we as a sports society place this pressure upon them. Then when the desired results do not occur the sports media places some negative affect on that program and athletes, questioning why they lost and how that will effect them in the CFP Rankings. So for me, if I were to rank the playoff eligble FBS programs I would rank them like so:

MY CFP RANKINGS, not in rank order:

BAYLOR (8-0)
CLEMSON (9-0)
HOUSTON (9-0)
IOWA (9-0)
OHIO STATE (9-0)
OKLAHOMA STATE (9-0)
ALABAMA (8-1)
FLORIDA (8-1)
LSU (7-1)
MEMPHIS (8-1)
MICHIGAN STATE (8-1)
NAVY (7-1)
NORTH CAROLINA (8-1)
NOTRE DAME (8-1)
OKLAHOMA (8-1)
STANFORD (8-1)
TCU (8-1)
TEMPLE (8-1)
TOLEDO (7-1)
UTAH (8-1)

This is my list in alphabetical order and by 0-loss and 1-loss order of FBS programs that I am considering for the four (4) CFP spots to compete for the $50 Million Dollar prize and to be called National Champion in college football at at the FBS level in the NCAA. This list places those teams on notice and does not rank them by order by hiearchal best to worst in which we as a sport society crave to have. We associate our teams by a rank in which they possess when the actual rankings by subjective systems and human voters possess NO true or valid ranking criteria in which to rank them. The rankings are opinion based not criteria based. As for the 2-loss FBS programs, I would say that you are on the watch list. I am well versed in knowing how the final numbers and statistical analysis correalte to final seaon records and how many 0-loss or 1-loss programs will remain at the end of the FBS season. So for this group of twenty (20) remaining 0-loss and 1-loss FBS teams, this is where the field of four (4) will derive from and my mock 16-team CFB playoff selection will derive from, unless we have a very small number of 0-loss and 1-loss programs.

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The Plot Thickens with 3-Weeks Remaining


As we head out of turn four of the college football season, the plot thickens. The group of 0-loss programs has been just about cut in half from eleven (11) to  six (6) in a mere week. LSU, Memphis, Michigan State, TCU and Toledo fall from the 0-loss ranks.  I told you the last four (4) weeks of the college football season gets interesting. I think the CFP committee forgot how the last (4) weeks of college football gets more complex as we head down the stretch. With the various rankings that are published, the sports fans and media are only interested in the one ranking system, that being the CFP poll. It seems that the CFP committee made their first rankings and parts of the sports world in college football and the media were all up in arms with how they ranked the FBS teams one (1) through twenty-five (25) in their first rankings.

With LSU losing this past Saturday to Alabama, that leaves the SEC with ZERO 0-loss programs left. Wonder how the CFP committee will select an SEC team into the 4-team playoff if there are four (4) 0-loss FBS teams left at the end of the season? Ranking FBS college football teams week to week is not as easy as everybody thinks. There are many categorical variables you have to look at before you rank teams and rank fairly. You must put aside your favorites and look at the facts and evidence before you rank. As we all witnessed this past Saturday, there were MANY great games played and still many GREAT GAMES to be played.  Those great games caused and will cause all the rankings to change with many postion changes this week and in the weeks to come.

As for my weekly rankings, each week is more interesting than the last. The rankings change week to week dependant on which group you look at. If I were to compare my rankings to the ones the media posts on the web or news print weekly, mine are different each week. The ones in the print news or websites have more Zero or NO position changes, becuase the voters do not want to change the rank unless they must. Now to my weekly rankings.

Ohio State survives and stays atop in both my polls, the PMT and PMT+. As for the remaining spots after that, all the losses by the 0-loss programs caused a change throughout the rankings. Clemson, Iowa and Oklahoma State follow the BIG 10, chasing after them. Clemson beats Florida State, Iowa sneaks by Indiana and Oklahoma State puts to rest TCU. Houston remains the lone 0-loss FBS program from the Group of 5 and hoping to remain a 0-loss program. With three (3) to four (4) weeks left, depending on the conference, there is still some great college football to watch, games to root for upsets and games to see how the last play ends the game.

Group 1 PMT

OHIO STATE (9-0)  ↔
CLEMSON (9-0)  ↑ 2
IOWA (9-0)  ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA STATE (9-0)  ↑ 2
HOUSTON (9-0)  ↑ 2
BAYLOR (8-0)  ↑ 5
NOTRE DAME (8-1)  ↑ 6
TEMPLE (8-1)  ↑ 6
UTAH (8-1)  ↑ 6
MICHIGAN STATE (8-1)  ↓ 8
STANFORD (8-1)  ↑ 5
OKLAHOMA (8-1)  ↑ 5
FLORIDA (8-1)  ↑ 5
MEMPHIS (8-1)  ↓11
TCU (8-1)  ↓ 9
ALABAMA (8-1)  ↑ 5
NORTH CAROLINA (8-1)  ↑ 5
TOLEDO (7-1)  ↓ 9
LSU (7-1)  ↓ 9
NAVY (7-1)  ↑ 3
WESTERN KENTUCKY (8-2)  ↑ 3
WISCONSIN (8-2)  ↑ 4
MARSHALL (8-2)  ↓11
BOWLING GREEN (7-2)  ↑ 2
UCLA (7-2)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
MICHIGAN (7-2)  ↑
BYU (7-2)  ↑
APPALACHIAN STATE (7-2)  ↓
BOISE STATE (7-2)  ↔
NORTHWESTERN (7-2)  ↑

Group 2 PMT+

OHIO STATE (9-0)  ↑ 1
CLEMSON (9-0)  ↑ 1
IOWA (9-0)  ↑ 1
OKLAHOMA STATE (9-0)  ↑ 3
HOUSTON (9-0)  ↑ 3
BAYLOR (9-0)  ↑ 5
NOTRE DAME (8-1)  ↑ 6
FLORIDA (8-1)  ↑ 6
MICHIGAN STATE (8-1)  ↓ 8
UTAH (8-1)  ↑ 5
STANFORD (8-1)  ↑ 5
OKLAHOMA (8-1)  ↑ 6
TEMPLE (8-1)  ↑ 4
ALABAMA (8-1)  ↑ 5
MEMPHIS (8-1)  ↓ 10
TCU (8-1)  ↓ 10
NORTH CAROLINA (8-1)  ↑ 5
NAVY (7-1)  ↑ 5
LSU (7-1)  ↓9
TOLEDO (7-1)  ↓11
WISCONSIN (8-2)  ↑ 5
WESTERN KENTUCKY (8-2)  ↑ 3
MARSHALL (8-2)  ↓11
MICHIGAN (7-2)  ↑ 2
UCLA (7-2)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
BOWLING GREEN (7-2)  ↑
NORTHWESTERN (7-2)  ↑
MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-2)  ↑
BYU (7-2)  ↑
FLORIDA STATE (7-2)  ↑

Each Tuesday during the college football season, I will post my CFP rankings and how the committee will rank each week.

If you read my postings and use any information from it, please remember to use APA/MLA format and cite your sources.

If you have any comments or questions, please do not hesitate to ask or contact me on twittrer at    cfbpoexpert

 


Predicting the CFP’s 1st Poll


I am beating ESPN and the CFP Committee to the punch and predicting the CFP Rankings from 1 through 25 before they are actually released live at 7PM tonight.

Tonight on November 3rd, 2015 at 7PM the College Football Playoff Committee will release thier first CFP Rankings on ESPN, the Expert Sports Programming Network. I follow various twitter accounts that tweet about college football which includes television, radio, analysts and the “experts” at ESPN. Last week the CFP committee Chair, Jeff Long; the Athletic Director at Arkansas an SEC Conference member , The Football Four, and The USA Today Sports sent out a tweet promoting the CFP Top 25 to be released Tuesday November 3rd. I sent a tweet back to them saying that I bet I could predict with confidence who the committee will rank in order and be 90% accurate. I received a tweet back from Jeff Long or his twitter account saying “Go For It! Knock yourself out, have fun with it …Go on! My return tweet was “as Barney Stinson said (from the CBS show How I Met Your Mother) “Challenge Accepted”.

Challanege Accepted and Completed. Below is how I believe the CFP Committee will rank the Top 25 FBS college football programs for the first CFP poll. You need to remember that the first poll is not the actual final poll but a feel out poll to see which 25 FBS programs are being considered for the Final Four Spots.  This is thier “on thier radar poll”. They will leave some very good credible FBS teams out and off the list. From this list some will play themselves out, some will change thier rankings and some will play themselevs into the poll and fail to receive thier just due credit, also known as any 0-loss or 1-loss programs from the Group of 5.

Below is how I have predicted how the CFP Committee will rank the first Top 25 Poll.

Disclaimer: This is not how I believe I would rank the CFP Poll. This is a Prediction Model of the CFP Poll.

PREDICTION OF CFP POLL

OHIO STATE (8-0)
BAYLOR (7-0)
CLEMSON (8-0)
LSU (7-0)
TCU (8-0)
MICHIGAN STATE (8-0)
ALABAMA (7-1)
FLORIDA (7-1)
NOTRE DAME (7-1)
STANFORD (7-1)
IOWA (8-0)
OKLAHOMA STATE (8-0)
OKLAHOMA (7-1)
UTAH (7-1)
FLORIDA STATE (7-1)
MEMPHIS (8-0)
MICHIGAN (7-1)
MISSISSIPPI (7-2)
HOUSTON (8-0)
TOLEDO (7-0)
NORTH CAROLINA (7-1)
UCLA (6-2)
TEMPLE (7-1)
MISSISSIPPI STATE (6-2)
TEXAS A&M (6-2)

I do believe that the committee has a very hard job to get this right at the end of the year. I also believe the committee does not look at all the variables that needs to be examined to rank more accurately each FBS team 1 through 25. Thier inexperience shows dramatically. What the public also need to rememeber is that there is $50 Million Dollars prize on the table, a trophy and title with national recognition on the line that is attached with this playoff format. This committee does possess vested interest and will do thier best to keep out any Power 5 FBS program out of the Final Four Spots.

If you have any questions about my rankings please contact me through twitter at    cfbpoexpert  or leave a comment on the page.


Last 4-weeks, Excitement, Upsets and Surprises


The college football season is now heading into the clubhouse turn and there are still MANY great scheduled games to be played to determine who will be bowl eligible, playoff bound and entered into my mock field of (16) college football playoff format. At the top of my weekly rankings nothing has changed, Ohio State and Michigan State are split at Number 1 and Number 2 atop the PMT and PMT+ polls. There was some shuffleing among the other (23) ranked FBS teams. Both had bye weeks this past Saturday as they head into the final (4) game run to end the college football season at the end of November. There are probably still 50+ great games scheduled that are going to determine who’s in and who’s out of the playoffs.

The American Athletic Conference (AAC) has been playing very competitive college football and are not receiving any credibility from the sports media except for the small interests showing. And when the AAC teams lose or fall from the 0-loss rankings, the media loses interests or comments with the “I told you so” comments. Temple (7-1) fell from the 0-loss list after losing in the last 2-minutes to Notre Dame 24-20. Houston (8-0) slaps the Schedule Easy Conference around by shutting out the “great” SEC and Vanderbilt 34-0, to remain in that 0- loss group. Memphis (8-0) starts slow versus Tulane (2-6) but finishes strong to show they belong in the CFP talk. Finally, Navy (6-1) increases thier chances to stay in the 1-loss group. If I recall is not the AAC (2-1) versus the Schedule Easy Conference (SEC) and should be by all rights be (3-0) versus the SEC. Wins versus a pre-season ranked Mississippi, a dominating win versus Vanderbilt, Missouri stuggled to win verses Connecticut by kicking the winning field goal at the end of the game and an added note of Toledo (7-0) going into Arkansas and winning. The fans and Schedule Easy Conference media, staff and coaches say “top to bottom” the SEC can beat anyone and anytime. What’s it like to eat crow? The AAC and Group of 5 FBS members belongs in the discussion of the CFP committee and one of those 4-spots.

What the main stream media fails to understand is their are (128) FBS programs, (10) Conferences and (3) Independents competing for the (4) CFP positions but the CFP is only monitoring or selecting from the Power 5 FBS group. No matter what Memphis, Houston or Toledo do this season and remain a 0-loss program at the end, they will never get a “fair and just” opportunity to compete for the $50 Million dollar prize and the right to be called national champions in college football at the end of the season come January 2016. Listening to ESPN radio, or ESPN TV the media members on the air or behind the scenes have been brain washed that only the FBS programs from the Power 5 are “entitled” to compete for that prize. I would love the opportuinty to call into one or all of those ESPN radio or TV shows, ask multiple questions, serve and volley in an intellectual manner and watch thier heads explode with the knowledge and how well versed in this topic I am. Enough for now.. on to the rankings and numbers.

As of November 1; there are (41) FBS programs that are bowl eligible with upto (17) more possibly eligible in the next two weeks. There are now (11) 0-loss FBS members remaining, (11) 1-loss FBS members and (15) 2-loss FBS members. Intersting how the games play themselves out and that the media are only using “crystal ball” methods to impose thier “expertise” on the topic of college footbal of who’s in and who’s out. Another interesting statistic is there are (2) 0-win programs left; Kansas and Central Florida. Will they remove the (0) from the win column?

As of November 1, 2015 here are the (2) groups of standing of my PMT and PMT+ polls.

Group 1 PMT Rankings

OHIO STATE (8-0)  ↔
MICHIGAN STATE (8-0)  ↔
MEMPHIS (8-0) ↑ 2
CLEMSON (8-0) ↑ 3
IOWA (8-0) ↑ 3
TCU (8-0) ↑ 3
OKLAHOMA STATE (8-0) ↑ 4
HOUSTON (8-0) ↑ 4
TOLEDO (7-0) ↓ 4
LSU (7-0) ↓ 4
BAYLOR (7-0) ↓ 1
MARSHALL (8-1) ↑ 1
NOTRE DAME (7-1) ↑ 2
TEMPLE (7-1) ↓11
UTAH (7-1) ↑ 1
STANFORD (7-1) ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA (7-1)  ↔
FLORIDA (7-1) ↑ 1
APPALACHIAN STATE (7-1) ↑ 2
FLORIDA STATE (7-1) ↑ 3
ALABAMA (7-1) ↓ 7
NORTH CAROLINA (7-1) ↑ 2
NAVY (6-1) ↑ 3
WESTERN KENTUCKY (7-2) ↑ 2
PENN STATE (7-2) ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
WISCONSIN (7-2)
BOISE STATE (7-2)
MISSISSIPPI (7-2)
BOWLING GREEN (6-2)
MICHIGAN (6-2)

Group 2 PMT+ Rankings

MICHIGAN STATE (8-0)
OHIO STATE (8-0)
CLEMSON (8-0) ↑ 2
IOWA (8-0) ↑ 3
MEMPHIS (8-0) ↑ 3
TCU (8-0) ↑ 3
OKLAHOMA STATE (8-0) ↑ 4
HOUSTON (8-0) ↑ 4
TOLEDO (7-0) ↓ 5
LSU (7-0) ↓ 4
BAYLOR (7-0) ↓ 1
MARSHALL (8-1) ↑ 2
NOTRE DAME (7-1) ↑ 4
FLORIDA (7-1) ↑ 2
UTAH (7-1)
STANFORD (7-1) ↑ 2
TEMPLE (7-1)   ↓ 13
OKLAHOMA (7-1)
ALABAMA (7-1) ↓ 6
APPALACHIAN STATE (7-1) ↑ 1
FLORIDA STATE (7-1) ↑ 1
NORTH CAROLINA (7-1) ↑ 1
NAVY (6-1) ↑ 3
PENN STATE (7-2) ↑ 1
WESTERN KENTUCKY (7-2) ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
WISCONSIN (7-2)
MISSISSIPPI (7-2)
BOISE STATE (7-2)
MICHIGAN (6-2)
UCLA (6-2)

The college football season the next 4 weeks will be the most exciting part of the season, rivalries, great conference games and lots of upsets and programs you thought would be in the playoffs now out of the disussion.

If you have any questions or comments please leave a comment or follow me on twitter at       cfbpoexpert

 


Big 10 split the No.1 spots


With the college football season working itself towards the finsih line the Big 10 are still atop my polls with Ohio State No.1 the Professional Model Theory poll (PMT) and Michigan State No.1 in the Professional Model Theory (PMT+) poll plus one other categorical variable. The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) finally cracks the Top 5 of the PMT+ poll with a dominating win against Miami (Fla). Sandwiched betweened Michigan State and Clemson are; Ohio State, Toledo and Temple. In the PMT poll, Temple, Toledo and Memphis follow behind the Big 10. It seems that the AAC and MAC are keeping pace and climbing within both polls to keep pace with the Big 10. The true Test for No.3 Temple (7-0) will be this week versus Notre Dame (6-1).

The college football season has always been an exciting season once we arrive at the half-mile pole of college football. Georgia Tech beats Florida State on a special teams play on a blocked field goal attempt. It seems that at this point of the college football season, its always the un-predictable time of the year. What the experts predict on outcomes of this college football season are usually wrong, thats why they are the experts. I let the games play out before I make any assumptions on who should be ranked or considered for the playoffs, unless my intuition tells me something.  As of this current point in the college football season there are tweleve (12) 0-loss FBS teams, thirteen (13) 1-loss FBS teams and sixteen (16) 2-loss FBS teams. These groups will dwindle down, they always do. It’s what my research tells me.Of those (12) 0-loss teams 25% are from the Non-BCS or Non Power 5 Conference; Temple, Toledo, Memphis and Houston. In the coming weeks, the AAC members will soon be scheduled against each other. Of the (13) 1-loss teams; 2 are from that same group of Non-BCS or Non Power 5 conference members; Marshall and Appalachian State.

As the college football season progresses forward, the month of November is going to be the most entertaining month for college football, that’s always the un-predictable month. Not sure what to expect but to expect the best games of all to be played. We have 0-loss programs that were not expected to be there at this point of the season from the sports media, and are just now receiving small credit from the media. I wonder what will happen if the only 0-loss FBS team remaining is from one of the Non-Power 5 or Non-BCS Conferences. We know they will be left out of the so called “playoffs” from the very inexpereicned playoff committee. With $50 Million dollars on the playoff table the committee will ALWAYS favor the Power 5 or BCS conferneces and programs. We will watch how the remaining 5 weeks of college football plays out. The scheduled match ups we are wanting to see play, are arriving soon. Be prepared for some upsets and close games. And now to this weeks rankings.

The rankings seem to change on a weekly basis with teams moving up and moving down. What remains the same is that the Big 10 are still atop of both the PMT and PMT+ polls. What does remain the same is that the SEC has only (1) 0-loss team left and thats #6 LSU in both polls. Here are my FBS college football rankings based upon my research.

Group 1: Professional Model Thoery (PMT)

OHIO STATE (8-0)  ↔
MICHIGAN STATE (8-0)  ↔
TEMPLE (7-0)  ↑ 2
TOLEDO (7-0)  ↓ 1
MEMPHIS (7-0)  ↑ 3
LSU (7-0)  ↑ 3
CLEMSON (7-0)  ↑ 3
IOWA (7-0)  ↓ 2
TCU (7-0)  ↓ 2
BAYLOR (7-0)  ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA STATE (7-0)  ↑ 2
HOUSTON (7-0)  ↑ 2
MARSHALL (7-1)  ↑ 4
ALABAMA (7-1)  ↑ 5
NOTRE DAME (6-1)  ↑ 1
UTAH (6-1)  ↓12
OKLAHOMA (6-1)  ↑ 3
STANFORD (6-1)  ↑ 3
FLORIDA (6-1)  ↓ 1
PITTSBURGH (6-1)  ↑ 3
APPALACHIAN STATE (6-1)  ↑ 4
DUKE (6-1)  ↑ 1
FLORIDA STATE (6-1)  ↓12
NORTH CAROLINA (6-1)  ↑ 2
WESTERN KENTUCKY (6-2)  ↓10
NEXT FIVE
BOWLING GREEN (6-2)  ↑
PENN STATE (6-2)  ↑
WISCONSIN (6-2)  ↑
BYU (6-2)  ↑
BOISE STATE (6-2)  ↑

Group 2 Professional Model Theory Plus one Categorical Variable

MICHIGAN STATE (8-0)  ↑ 1
OHIO STATE (8-0)  ↓ 1
TOLEDO (7-0)  ↑ 2
TEMPLE (7-0)  ↔
CLEMSON (7-0)  ↑ 4
LSU (7-0)  ↑ 2
IOWA (7-0)  ↓ 1
MEMPHIS (7-0)  ↑ 2
TCU (7-0)  ↓ 2
BAYLOR (7-0)  ↑ 3
OKLAHOMA STATE (7-0)  ↑ 1
HOUSTON (7-0)  ↑ 2
ALABAMA (7-1)  ↑ 3
MARSHALL (7-1)  ↑ 5
UTAH (6-1)  ↓12
FLORIDA (6-1)  ↓ 1
NOTRE DAME (6-1)  ↔
OKLAHOMA (6-1)  ↑ 3
STANFORD (6-1)  ↑ 1
PITTSBURGH (6-1)  ↑ 4
APPALACHIAN STATE (6-1)  ↑ 4
FLORIDA STATE (6-1)  ↓11
NORTH CAROLINA (6-1)  ↑ 3
DUKE (6-1)  ↑ 2
PENN STATE (6-2)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
WISCONSIN (6-2)  ↑
WESTERN KENTUCKY (6-2)  ↓
BOWLING GREEN (6-2)  ↔
NORTHWESTERN (6-2)  ↑
MISSISSIPPI STATE (6-2)  ↑

If you have any questions or comments about my rankings, please feel free to send comments to me and follow me on twitter  @cfbpoexpert


Book Update and New Release Time


To all the college football fans who would appreciate an expanded tournament style playoff bracket of more than 4 Power 5 FBS teams in the NCAA at the FBS level of college football. I authored and released a book in 2013 which is pictured on my webpage on the right side. I have taken on the subject matter again and that book although available now but not the one you should read. Proof reading what I wrote, I discovered that I left out some vital and pertinent information that is definatively needed to prove my point and support for a change for a 16-team playoff expanded format for college football at the FBS level of play in the NCAA. My research and playoff format allows all (128) and or future FBS programs an equal, fair and just opportunity to compete for the National Championship in college football at the FBS level of play in the NCAA and an opprtuinity to comepete for $50+ million dollars.

I have added 4 new chapters, added new tables, adjusted tables and data to support my findings, a secret chapter and changed the title. I am currently writing that secret chapter now which offers evidence and proof that certain rules have been broken and that those rules need to be brought to light. I am writing this book from a District Attorney’s positon who is trying a defendent on a first degree murder charge and I am that District Attorney with all the evidence and facts.

When you author a book and make any changes to that book, such as additional chapters or change in data, you need to re-apply for copyright protection and a new ISBN Library of Congress number. This does not mean that the book I authored already is not valid, just means that I am offering more supportive evidence and findings. You may ask why the long delay in re-release. When you work 70+ hours a week, you have time for a few pages here and there plus reflect on what you wrote.

My target time to be completed with this project from the writing sense is at the end of 2015, basically December 31, 2015. Once that is complete, I will proof read what I wrote again and then re-submit for copyright protection by the end of January 2016. Once I have obtained my new copyright, I will be looking for at least (20) volunteers to enter into a contractual agreement to read my book to offer thoughts and comments. The target date for consumer purchase will be on or just after July 1, 2016. Right before college football season starts up with the pre-season polls and conference media days.

The volunteers I am searching for are sports writers from across the country, atheltic directors outside of the FBS or FCS level of play, sports fans who possess an open mind  and passionate about college football when reading a topic of this magnitude, sports news casters who possess no ties to ESPN, FOX Sports, HLN Sports, NBC Sports, CNN Sports or any other major media sports outlet. As a volunteer you will enter into an agreetment that hold you to secrecy and not able to discuss the book and its contents until I officially release it to the general public. Specific details of being a volunteer to be the first to read my book will be released later when that time comes.

Could you be a volunteer? If you have any questions or would like to be considered as a volunteer to read my book before the general public please contact me either by:

email:     cfbpoexpert@gmail.com    or       Twitter:      cfbpoexpert

I look forward to your comments and the possibility of you being one of those (20) volunteers.


Ohio State remains No.1


It’s mid-October and we are about at the half-mile pole for college football with the cream slowly rising to the top, others gaining ground and some slipping into the pack. Of the field of (128) FBS programs, there are NO Secretariat’s in this group. Ohio State remains number 1 in both of my polls. Michigan State is a close second but actually stole a victory to stay at (7-0) and with pace with Ohio State. The Big 10 has established thier dominance this year but that can change as we head into the last half of the college football season. Utah, Temple and Toledo all exchange places as they settle in behind the leaders in the third through fifth positions.

The college football season has had many great games and non-historic FBS programs earning success this season, but not receiving the media credit coverage from print, radio and televised media that they deserve. Congratulations to Memphis at (6-0) from the American Athletic Conference(AAC), a Non Power 5 or Non BCS conference member.  Memphis started out being ranked in my polls at 10th and 11th, then 8th and 11th, last week 10th and 12th and this week 8th and 10th. Memphis has been consistant all season long, but no real mention in the media until now.

Yesterday, Memphis earns a program and conferene credibilty win against SEC member Mississippi. If I recall, was not Mississippi now (4-2), ranked in the top 10 in the preseason polls by the so-called experts and sports media.The only credit Mississippi has to thier credit is the win against Alabama. And NOW ESPN’s Mike and Mike and other college football shows in the sports media in print, radio and television are now showing slight interest. Seems that Memphis deserves more credit that what the media are offering. This also includes Toledo, Temple, Navy, Houston and Utah; they too deserve more media coverage. Oh wait, Toledo, Memphis, Houston, Navy and Temple are not Power 5 Conference members and are left on the back burner. Interesting that they pay the same NCAA and conference membership fees like the Power 5 conferences, compete on the same field of play as them but have to wait to receive media credibilty. That’s like the Kansas City Royals who have won the AL Central and hoping to play in thier second consecutive World Series. Interesting analogy is that the New York Yankees make the most money for MLB but finsihed behind Kansas City this season. Guess who is playing for the possibility to play in the World Series, not the Yankess. The Royals players and coaches EARNED that spot these past two seasons, not given to them. Maybe the sports media should immediately recognize when non-primary or Non-Power 5 FBS college programs are doing better than thier crystal ball expectations and predictions from the media and give them thier just due credit.

And now to this weeks rankings. There have been a few changes with FBS teams moving up, some moving down. As of the half mile pole of the FBS college football season there are (14) 0-loss and (15) 1-loss programs left in FBS colege football. From the 0-loss group; (12) are from the BCS/Power 5 Conferences and (4) are from the Non-BCS/Non-Power 5 conferences. Those (4) are Houston, Memphis and Temple all from the American Athletic Conference(AAC) and Toledo from the Mid-Amercian Conference(MAC). We know that only (1) from the AAC could emerge as the only 0-loss FBS program and still no media coverage. Below are the current rankings based upon my research and assessment on how college football should be ranked; not by popularity, confernece affiliation labels by the sports media mean nothing to me or which FBS progam generates the most revenue dollars is a non factor. Finally, congratulation to Appalachian State from the Sun Belt Conference (SBC) for cracking my Top 25. I hope they continue their success and end up at (11-1). We shall see.

Group 1 Rankings: Professional Model Theory

OHIO STATE (7-0)
MICHIGAN STATE (7-0)
TOLEDO (6-0) ↑ 3
UTAH (6-0) ↑ 1
TEMPLE (6-0) ↓ 2
IOWA (7-0) ↑ 1
TCU (7-0) ↑ 1
MEMPHIS (6-0) ↑ 2
LSU (6-0) ↑ 5
CLEMSON (6-0) ↑ 2
FLORIDA STATE (6-0) ↑ 4
BAYLOR (6-0) ↓ 1
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0) ↓ 4
HOUSTON (6-0) ↑ 2
WESTERN KENTUCKY (6-1) ↑ 2
NOTRE DAME (6-1) ↑ 3
MARSHALL (6-1) ↑ 6
FLORIDA (6-1) ↓ 15
ALABAMA (6-1) ↑ 9
OKLAHOMA (5-1) ↑ 7
STANFORD (5-1) ↑ 6
CALIFORNIA (5-1) ↑ 3
PITTSBURGH (5-1) ↑ 2
DUKE (5-1) ↓ 2
APPALACHIAN STATE (5-1) ↑ 1

Group 2: Professional Model Theory, plus one more categorical varaible

OHIO STATE (7-0)
MICHIGAN STATE (7-0)
UTAH (6-0) ↑ 1
TEMPLE (6-0) ↑ 1
TOLEDO (6-0) ↑ 1
IOWA (7-0) ↑ 1
TCU (7-0) ↑ 1
LSU (6-0) ↑ 5
CLEMSON (6-0) ↑ 1
MEMPHIS (6-0) ↑ 2
FLORIDA STATE (6-0) ↑ 3
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0) ↓ 3
BAYLOR (6-0) ↑ 3
HOUSTON (6-0) ↑ 1
FLORIDA (6-1) ↓ 12
ALABAMA (6-1) ↑ 11
NOTRE DAME (6-1) ↑ 2
WESTERN KENTUCKY (6-1) ↑ 2
MARSHALL (6-1) ↑ 6
STANFORD (5-1) ↑ 7
OKLAHOMA (5-1) ↑ 6
CALIFORNIA (5-1)
TEXAS A&M (5-1) ↓ 12
PITTSBURGH (5-1) ↑ 2
APPALACHIAN STATE (5-1) ↑ 1

The remaining last half mile of this college football season is going to get very interesting with upsets, great games. close games and a wire finish in the last 2-weeks of the season. Some that are ranked in my Top 25, are more than likely not going to be there in the last poll.

If there was a 16-team playoff format based upon my research findings and my book; the group of (29) FBS programs with 0-losses and 1-losses are 100% guarenteed a spot in the field of 16 when the final season completes itself. That means at the end of the FBS season, any 0-loss or 1-loss FBS program are guaranteed a spot in my field of 16. The group of (22) FBS programs with 2-losses have an 83% chance of making the field of 16. We shall see how the last half mile plays out.

If you have any questions or comments about my rankings, please feel free to send comments to me and follow me on twitter  @cfbpoexpert