FBS: The Field of 16


Do you ever wonder what college football would be like at the FBS level if there were a field of 16? Throughout the exhaustive research of college football at the FBS level, I was able to develop a FAIR, measurable and non-subjective criteria to determine who would make the field of 16 FBS playoffs. My system eliminates computer systems and human voters who possess vested interest and bias who can manipulate the rankings when large sums of money becomes the ultimate mission. The players and coaches are the ones who make the cognitive decisions on the field that ultimately creates their overall record and assists in determining their seeding spot if selected into the field of 16. There are also other measurable criteria that assists in seeding the field of 16 which I will not divulge at this moment and time. What I can say is that research and peer reviewed journal articles assisted in the thought process of designing the 16 team traditional playoff format. All I can say is some decisions are easy, some are challenging needing investigative analysis and some are very difficult to make.

NOTE: all games played as conference championship games were not taken into account due to the fact that ALL conferences do not possess a championship game, in addition to that only 10% of  the FBS plays a 13th game. The regular season ends after the 12th game of the season is complete. There were no favortism or bias into the seeding of these 16 FBS programs, the FBS programs earned these seeds.

This is how a traditional style bracketed playoff format could look like if the FBS/NCAA possessed a 16 team playoff.

1st Weekend of DECEMBER(higher ranked seeds Host and are Home)

#1 Notre Dame (12-0) vs #16 Clemson (10-2)

#8 Northern Illinois (11-1) vs. #9 Stanford (10-2)

#5 Florida (11-1) vs. #12 South Carolina (10-2)

#4 Georgia (11-1) vs. # 13 LSU (10-2)

#3 Oregon (11-2) vs. #14 Utah State (10-2)

#6 Alabama (10-2) vs.#11 Oklahoma (10-2)

#7 Kansas State (11-1) vs. #10 Boise State (10-2)

#2 Kent State (11-1) vs. #15 San Jose State (10-2)

3rd weekend of DECEMBER(neutral sites)

POD A

ND, CLEM, NIU  and STAN-  2 winners play at New Mexico Bowl.

FLA, SC, GA and LSU- 2 winners play at Idaho Potato Bowl.

POD B

ORG, UTST, ALA and OU- 2 winners play at Poinsetta Bowl.

KST, BOIST, KENST, and SJST- 2 winners play at Beef O Brady Bowl.

NEW YEARS DAY

POD A- final 2 remaining winners play at Orange Bowl.

POD B- final 2 remaining winner play at Rose Bowl.

JAN 7th

Championship Game with POD A  remaining winner vs POD B remaining winner at the Sugar Bowl.

Imagine the excitement, fans, media coverage and the revenue this would generate in regions across the country. The taxed based dollars would generate revenue and ALL playoff games would be SOLD OUT, no empty seats.

For those who are asking why my (10-2) team did not earn a seed, here is the best explanation without getting to deep. Both Texas A&M and Florida State only played 10 FBS games. FCS programs are in-eligible to play for the FBS championship. Yes, some seeded programs played 1 FCS program, so whats the difference? They won more games and the FCS game they played were used as analysis to assist in the seeding process with like records. Best suggestion, schedule FBS programs or only schedule 1 FCS program and/or schedule FCS programs that have made the FBS commitment in the coming years. Louisville’s Non-Conference schedule was not as credible with a combined record of (12-36). Nebrasks was the final decision on not making the field of 16. Nebraska possessed a stronger Non-Conference combined record of (18-18), but other FBS programs seeded earned a record versus those already seeded and played a tougher non-conference schedule based upon number of home and away games.

How does this playoff format change the bowl system, in reality it doesnt. The bowl games can still run congruent with this playoff format but with 76 Bowl eligible FBS teams this season, that leaves 60 FBS bowl eligible programs to be selected into the remaining bowls. My next post in the coming days will have the adjusted Bowl Games with the remaining eligible FBS teams trying to stay within the bowl contractual agreements as possible.

This is what college football could possess, just like the NCAA March Madness, but in December and Traditional New Years week. The purpose of this post was to make you look at college football differently. Yes, even during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament selection, some teams do not understand why they were left out or how they are seeded the way they were. The difference is, THEY GO PLAY no matter what. They respect the system in use and earn the championship by playing out the tournament.

Please feel free to leave me quality question(s) on here, no rants or abuse will be tolerated or you can reach me through twitter at cfbpoexpert.


BCS: Notre Dame Secures Top spot in field of 16


Notre Dame concludes the 2012 FBS season with an incredible goal line stand to secure a (12-0) season to secure the top seed in this researched based 16 team playoff format. And finally, most impressively the BCS National Championship Game versus an opponent yet to be determined by the subjective voters and computers analysis. The difference between the “official” national championship game and my researched based playoff format is that all 124 FBS programs are considered for the 16 spots depending on their FINAL regular season record. Most importantly,each individual FBS program is considered pending that they are not on NCAA probation. With that said, if  (12-0)Ohio State were eligible then where would they be seeded if they possess the same record as Notre Dame? The answer to that question is that, Ohio State would be seeded #2. Since Ohio State is ineligible who will be seeded #2, that’s the mystery.

With the 2012 FBS season concluding next weekend with five conferences; the Big East, the Big 12, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt  and the Western Athletic finishing with conference games the seeds will not be released until early Sunday morning. I can offer this tidbit of information, the following are in the playoff format with seeds to be determined excluding Notre Dame who has earned the #1 seed.

  1. Notre Dame IND(12-0)
  2. Florida SEC(11-1)
  3. Kent State MAC(11-1)
  4. Oregon PAC 12(11-1)
  5. Northern Illinois MAC(11-1)
  6. Alabama SEC (11-1)
  7. Georgia SEC(11-1)

With 7 spots secured that leaves 9 spots with a possibility of 14 FBS teams to be examined for the remaining 9 spots. It does appear that 10-2 is the record to be achieved to be considered for the field of 16. Being 9-3 may not enough to get in when in some seasons it’s enough to be at least considered. Hopefully your (10-2) team will be selected and even not they will play in a prestigious bowl game.


BCS: 2 MAC FBS Teams Secure Playoff Spots


2 Non-BCS/FBS programs secure 2 of the 15 remaining playoff spots with victories today on the last weeks and final games of the FBS season. Both Northern Illinois and Kent State both ended the season with a 11 wins, which secures their spots.  Kent State ran off 10 wins in a row, while Northern Illinois ran off 11 wins in a row. Of the non-conference  victories that were earned by Kent State were at Army(IND) and at Rutgers(BE), while Northern Illinois earned wins versus at Army(IND) and home versus Kansas(B12). Northern Illinois almost finished the 2012 FBS season as one of the undefeated FBS programs, but lost the first game of the season to Iowa(B12) at Iowa(B12) 16-17.   The lone loss that is the only blemish on Kent State’s record was at Kentucky 14-47. Both of these FBS programs earned these 2 playoff spots with seeding placement to be determined upon the completion of the 2012 season and/or when all playoff eligible programs are being considered.

With 3 playoffs spots secured by Notre Dame, Kent State and Northern Illinois, that leaves the possibility of 34 FBS programs in the final weeks or final game to secure one of the remaining 13 spots with seeds to be determined. We will all be glued to our televisions this weekend to watch how the remaining games to be played turn out. There will be upsets I am sure,  as well as close games and blowouts. There will be more surprises in final 13 spots as well as who is seeded where.

 


BCS: Notre Dame secures spot in Playoff!!!


With the 2012 FBS college football season drawing to a close, Notre Dame has secured one of the hypothetical playoff spots in my field of 16 teams. Notre Dame’s seed position is yet to be determined. However, the 5 years of college football research in which was performed by myself, examined that from 1996 to the present, that any FBS team that earns 11+ victories are 100% guaranteed a seed within the field of 16. Since 1996, the largest number of 11-win FBS programs were 8, in 1998 and 2001. Lets not forget about Ohio State, if not placed on probation by the NCAA would have also secured a playoff spot like Notre Dame with seed to be determined. By playing by the rules, Ohio State or any FBS program could be playing for prestige, honor and national notoriety. This excludes the increases in media exposure, recruiting and financial gains by participating in additional games.

There are specific criterion that determines the field of 16 in my playoff format. Although hypothetical for now, the criteria possesses NO vested interest, NO human polls and NO computer calculations. The seed selection process is determined  by multiple variables that are determined within the current season and no hypothetical situations.

The remaining 15 spots in my playoff format are still up for grabs. However, as the 2012 season concludes, the current situation is as this for the remaining spots. I will not specifically name any FBS programs currently competing for the remaining seeds, until they have actually secured one of the 16 spots. Of the current (9) 10-win FBS teams, there is an 80% significance that they secure a spot within my field by earning their 11th win. By earning the 11th win, they are 100% guaranteed to secure a spot in the filed of 16, with seeding to be determined. There is still a chance that some or all of these (10) win FBS programs lose this week staying at (10) wins.  Of the current (13) 9- win FBS teams, they can become part of the (10) win with an 80% significance in securing one of the 16 playoff spots. By ending the season with 10 wins, the significance of securing one of the 16 playoff spots is significant.  By ending the season as a (9) win FBS  team, there is only a less than 9% significance in earning one of the 16 seeds.  The largest number of 10- win FBS teams were 10 in successive years, 2006 and 2007. However, in 2007 all (10) 2-loss FBS programs made the field of 16.  In 2007, of the (15) FBS teams with 2-losses (10) made the final field of 16. Does this mean that an FBS team currently with (8) wins looking for the 9th or even 10th are not being considered, No. They still have an “FAIR” opportunity to make the field of 16.

There are 2-weeks still left of the FBS football 2012 season, but many finish the regular season this coming weekend. Only the Big East, Big 12 and the Army/Navy game extends into the first weekend of December. Conference Championship games are not take into account when the selection process. I will not explain why for now.

You will surprised at who is being seeded where………..stay tune for more.

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