Alabama #1 in Rankings, but #2 In Mock 16 Team Playoff Rank


Alabama remains the #1 ranked FBS program in my weekly rankings, but is seeded #2 in my early MOCK/Fictional 16 Team Playoff Model. The Broncos from Western Michigan are ranked and seeeded opposite of Alabama at #2 and #1. The first order of business, is can both Alabama and Western Michigan remain the only 0-loss programs left standing after the 12regular season game schedule is complete? Research supports and states that on average there are (2.62) 0-loss programs per each FBS season. We have one week remaining in the FBS regular season. Alabama (11-0) hosts (8-3) Auburn, while (11-0) Western Michigan host (9-2) Toledo. Both games are not easy games to win as Alabama and Western Michigan look to stay un-defeated. We shall see which one of these two stay at 0-loss or who falls into the 1-loss group.

Weekly rankings and seeding criteria are different in relationship to how each assigned ranking and seeded number is applied to each FBS program. The playoff seeding rank is a quantifiable process based upon research and multiple quantifiable variables which are standardized and used for all FBS programs. This weeks Playoff (PO) seeded positions are not 100% accurate, but a quick look at where the seeding of the mock field of 16 would be seeded. Preliminary seedings indicates some great first round games. Looking quickly at the games we would possibly have are ; Alabama hosting Houston, Western Michigan hosting Oklahoma State, Boise State hosting South Florida, Ohio State hosting Colorado, Michigan hosting Nebraska, Clemson hosting Wisconsin, Washington hosting Louisville and Penn State hosting Oklahoma. I can guarentee you all of those games would be exciting and SOLD OUT.

Currently, 65 FBS programs are bowl eligible with another 18 FBS programs still eligible to become bowl eligible with 5-wins and 1 or 2 games remaining on the FBS season. If all 18 eligible FBS programs win their last games then, the total number of bowl eligible FBS programs would be at 83 and no need for any (5-7) program to be considered for any open bowl spots. The last week of college football will be entertaining to watch all weekend long, starting with 3 MAC games on Tuesday night and concluding with UMass and Hawaii on Saturday.

On to this weeks rankings:

RANK CONF TEAM RECORD OPP W/L OPP % CONF W/L CONF % PO SEED
1 SEC ALABAMA (11-0) (63-46) 0.578 (22-27) 0.449 2
2 MAC WESTERN MICHIGAN (11-0) (42-68) 0.382 (18-31) 0.367 1
3 B10 OHIO STATE (10-1) (67-54) 0.554 (28-34) 0.452 4
4 B10 MICHIGAN (10-1) (63-59) 0.516 (25-37) 0.403 5
5 MWC BOISE STATE (10-1) (58-63) 0.479 (25-26) 0.490 3
6 ACC CLEMSON (10-1) (67-42) 0.615 (30-29) 0.508 6
7 P12 WASHINGTON (10-1) (52-56) 0.481 (26-40) 0.394 7
8 B10 PENN STATE (9-2) (68-53) 0.562 (30-33) 0.476 8
9 B10 WISCONSIN (9-2) (64-56) 0.533 (33-31) 0.516 11
10 B12 OKLAHOMA (9-2) (62-55) 0.530 (23-37) 0.383 9
11 B10 NEBRASKA (9-2) (61-60) 0.504 (30-34) 0.469 12
12 ACC LOUISVILLE (9-2) (60-61) 0.496 (22-36) 0.379 10
13 P12 COLORADO (9-2) (67-54) 0.554 (34-41) 0.453 13
14 AAC HOUSTON (9-2) (57-51) 0.528 (20-29) 0.408 15
15 AAC SOUTH FLORIDA (9-2) (54-55) 0.495 (22-27) 0.449 14
16 B12 OKLAHOMA STATE (9-2) (52-54) 0.491 (23-37) 0.383 16
17 MWC SAN DIEGO STATE (9-2) (41-69) 0.373 (18-33) 0.353
18 SEC FLORIDA (8-2) (55-50) 0.524 (24-34) 0.414
19 AAC NAVY (8-2) (54-45) 0.545 (22-26) 0.458
20 B12 WEST VIRGINIA (8-2) (50-47) 0.515 (28-26) 0.519
21 SBC TROY (8-2) (48-47) 0.505 (22-16) 0.579
22 P12 USC (8-3) (68-53) 0.562 (33-40) 0.452
23 P12 STANFORD (8-3) (62-58) 0.517 (36-37) 0.493
24 SBC APPLACHIAN STATE (8-3) (59-58) 0.504 (19-26) 0.422
25 SEC TENNESSEEE (8-3) (72-37) 0.661 (29-24) 0.547

 

Key:

Record- Team Overall Win Loss Seasonal Record

OPP W/L Record- The Combined Overal W/L Record of ALL Scheduled FBS programs that you played to this point in the season.

OPP %- The W/L Percentage Rate of the combined OPP W/L Records.

CONF W/L Record- The Combined Overall W/L Record of Scheduled FBS Conference Opponents ONLY, already played to this poing in the season.

PO Seed- Current Mock Playoff Seeding in my ficticious 16-Team Playoff Format. This seed number is not accurate or solidified until the completion of the 12-Games FBS season is complete.

 

If you have any questions, please contact me via twitter @cfbpoexpert

 


Alabama Still #1, With Upset Saturday


The Crimson Tide from Alabama at (10-0), one of two 0-loss programs remaining, retains the #1 ranking in my weekly poll. The other 0-loss program left standing are the Broncos from Western Michigan at (10-0). The main sports media in print from the USA Today and television from ESPN won’t recognize the feat in which the Broncos have amassed in remaining un-defeated like Alabama. The best way to interpret this type of media coverage from television and the print media is, Western Michigan is from that side of the tracks and they don’t play the same teams we do. We (the Power Five Conferences and Programs) are “entitled” to this type of coverage and are “MORE deserving” of the $50 Million dollars on the table, the accolades that come with that and are the only programs “allowed to” be called “National Champion” in college football in the CFP era, under the NCAA blue logo.

If Western Michigan stays un-beaten, 0-loss, or un-feated; then by all rights they should be part of the the CFP 4-team playoff, no matter what their conference affiliation is or classification that the NCAA/FBS group of power brokers and sports media classify them as. No FBS programs beat them, they would have won ALL thier games; so why leave them out. Does not CFP mean College Football Playoff, meaning all college FBS programs who compete. I believe that the CFP chairperson and Texas Tech Athletic Director Kirby Hocutt, need to re-examine and evaluate the protocol of the selection process for the CFP and $50 Million dollars on the table for winning the National Championship at the FBS level of play. All FBS programs should be eligible to be selected for the CFP 4-team playoff, unless they are on probation, and not the select group to earn and be called National Champions in college football.  The higher level of critical thinking to evaluate, rank and seed college football programs is tough enough but when committee members have vested interest, lack of knowledge or experience to select and seed; then you only punish those who are deserving to be part of the CFP 4-team playoff versus name brand program who should not be part of the process.

There were some credible wins by FBS programs that upset ranked FBS programs to earn thier bowl eligible status. Wins by; Eastern Michigan, Georgia, Iowa, Pittsburgh and yes Idaho earned their 6th win this past weekend, making them bowl eligible. Idaho might want to re-think their decision on returning to the FCS level of play after the 2017 FBS season. Congratulations to those programs for earning bowl eligibilty. As of to date, there are now 57 bowl eligible programs, 21 FBS programs with 5-wins and needing one more win to earn bowl eligibility; and 18 FBS programs with 4-wins with at least two chances or more to earn their 6th win on the season to become bowl eligible.

This weeks rankings has an additional category to it, and that is my fictional/mock 16-team playoff seeding number (PO SEED) if the college football season were to have ended last weekend and I were seeding and selecting the mock/fictional field of 16. The seed number you see now is not 100% accurate but close to accurate compared to the CFP 4-team playoff, since I “include” ALL FBS programs in my playoff format. Which 16 FBS programs will make the field of 16. This time next week, we could have part of the field entered, but not seeded.

And now for the rankings:

RANK CONF TEAM RECORD OPP W/L OPP % CONF W/L CONF % PO SEED
1 SEC ALABAMA (10-0) (57-41) 0.582 (20-23) 0.465 1
2 MAC WESTERN MICHIGAN (10-0) (38-53) 0.418 (14-23) 0.378 2
3 B10 OHIO STATE (9-1) (58-42) 0.580 (25-24) 0.510 3
4 B10 MICHIGAN (9-1) (53-48) 0.525 (20-29) 0.408 6
5 MWC BOISE STATE (9-1) (49-51) 0.490 (19-19) 0.500 4
6 ACC LOUISVILLE (9-1) (48-52) 0.480 (20-31) 0.392 5
7 ACC CLEMSON (9-1) (56-33) 0.629 (23-24) 0.489 7
8 P12 WASHINGTON (9-1) (43-47) 0.478 (20-31) 0.392 8
9 MWC SAN DIEGO STATE (9-1) (29-61) 0.322 (10-28) 0.263 9
10 SBC TROY (8-1) (37-41) 0.474 (13-16) 0.448 10
11 B12 WEST VIRGINIA (8-1) (37-41) 0.474 (17-23) 0.425 11
12 B10 PENN STATE (8-2) (60-35) 0.632 (26-23) 0.531 12
13 B10 WISCONSIN (8-2) (55-44) 0.556 (28-21) 0.571 13
14 B10 NEBRASKA (8-2) (51-49) 0.510 (25-24) 0.510 14
15 B12 OKLAHOMA (8-2) (49-48) 0.505 (15-31) 0.326 15
16 P12 COLORADO (8-2) (53-47) 0.530 (17-34) 0.333 16
17 AAC HOUSTON (8-2) (45-43) 0.511 (18-25) 0.419
18 AAC SOUTH FLORIDA (8-2) (44-45) 0.494 (16-21) 0.432
19 B12 OKLAHOMA STATE (8-2) (42-45) 0.483 (17-29) 0.370
20 P12 UTAH (8-2) (42-48) 0.467 (19-31) 0.380
21 P12 WASHINGTON STATE (8-2) (46-54) 0.460 (13-37) 0.260
22 MAC TOLEDO (8-2) (37-53) 0.411 (17-20) 0.459
23 CUSA WESTERN KENTUCKY (8-3) (52-50) 0.510 (22-22) 0.500
24 CUSA LOUISIANA TECH (8-3) (43-57) 0.430 (20-25) 0.444
25 SEC FLORIDA (7-2) (42-47) 0.472 (18-29) 0.383

The last two-plus weeks of the CFB season is going to be interesting. There are still some great games left to be played and after this past weekend, anyone can beat anybody, anywhere at any given time. Something the main sports media does not understand or accept.

Follow me on Twitter at  @cfbpoexpert and direct your questions, comments and thoughts through Twitter.

 


Alabama Stays #1 for Fourth Week


Alabama retains their #1 college football ranking within my ranking system for the fourth week in a row. Alabama (9-0) survived a scare from LSU, but the supposed “best” college football team struggels offensively. However, those CFB/FBS programs ranked below Alabama seem to outperform their opponents this past weekend by running up the scores to 50+ points to make a statement. The CFP committee possesses a challenge in ranking the college football programs 1 through 25. I did predict last week, that 0-loss Western Michigan woud be ranked no higher than 20th in the CFP poll. I was right, the CFP committee ranked Western Michigan 23rd. Wonder where the CFP committee will rank Western Michigan this week, 20th? I put more faith and confidence in (9-0) Western Michigan and have them ranked 4th this week. They have not lost, they have been consistant, earned their victoriesa dn their ranking within my poll.

So why can’t the CFP committee rank Western Michigan in the Top 4 of their weekly rankings? One reason is that the CFP protocol DOES NOT allow any Group of Five CFB/FBS member access to the $50 Million Dollars at stake but can be considered for a bowl game with some prestige to it and I do believe its comes with a $10 Million dollar payout. The birdesmaid gift for going 0-loss the whole season. The second reason is, if and only if the 0-loss Group of Five FBS/CFB programs is ranked higher than any remaining Power Five Conference Champion but ranked the Group of Five FBS/CFB program must be ranked no lower than 12th in the final rankings. That means for any Group of Five member to gain financial accolades, they must meet specific criterion which is subjective and manipulative based upon the very “inexperienced” CFP committee, coaches who vote with vested interest and a media bias. Pretty hard to swallow for a CFB/FBS/NCAA member institution to abide by even though they pay thier annual membership dues to participate in college athletics, but vehetmetly withheld from the $50 Million dollars on the table and that crystal football to be called National Champion.

As for this weeks rankings, many of the programs are taking a foothold on maintaining thier top 25 rank within my poll. The bottom part of the poll seems to be musical chairs. With three weeks remaining in the CFB season, those competing for my ficticious 16-team playoff spots are getting closer to securing spots. Within the next two weeks, some of the 16 spots will be secured but not finalaized. Facts about this weeks data and bowl eligibility:

48 CFB/FBS programs have secured or earned bowl eligibilty with 6-wins or greater.

24 CFB/FBS programs are 1-win away from earning bowl eligibility.

19 CFB/FBS programs are 2-wins away from bowl eligibility and need to win 2 of their last 3 or 4 games remaining to earn bowl eligibility.

Total number of CFB/FBS programs needed to participate in bowl games is 80.. will the bowls turn to (5-7) programs to complete the bowl season???

Now for this weeks rankings:

 

RANK CONF TEAM RECORD OPP W/L OPP % CONF W/L CONF %
1 SEC ALABAMA (9-0) (49-32) 0.605 (16-17) 0.485
2 B10 MICHIGAN (9-0) (42-40) 0.512 (13-23) 0.361
3 ACC CLEMSON (9-0) (45-26) 0.634 (16-19) 0.457
4 MAC WESTERN MICHIGAN (9-0) (33-41) 0.446 (10-17) 0.370
5 P12 WASHINGTON (9-0) (32-40) 0.444 (10-21) 0.323
6 B10 OHIO STATE (8-1) (47-34) 0.580 (19-17) 0.528
7 MWC BOISE STATE (8-1) (41-40) 0.506 (15-12) 0.556
8 ACC LOUISVILLE (8-1) (38-34) 0.469 (14-24) 0.368
9 MWC SAN DIEGO STATE (8-1) (25-50) 0.333 (8-21) 0.276
10 B12 WEST VIRGINIA (7-1) (29-34) 0.460 (13-17) 0.433
11 SBC TROY (7-1) (29-34) 0.460 (7-13) 0.350
12 B10 PENN STATE (7-2) (52-30) 0.634 (21-15) 0.583
13 SEC AUBURN (7-2) (46-33) 0.582 (13-18) 0.419
14 B10 WISCONSIN (7-2) (47-34) 0.580 (21-15) 0.583
15 B10 NEBRASKA (7-2) (41-41) 0.500 (18-18) 0.500
16 B12 OKLAHOMA (7-2) (39-42) 0.481 (11-25) 0.306
17 SBC APPLACHIAN STATE (7-2) (38-42) 0.475 (9-15) 0.375
18 SEC TEXAS A&M (7-2) (42-29) 0.592 (20-14) 0.588
19 P12 COLORADO (7-2) (47-34) 0.580 (14-24) 0.368
20 MWC WYOMING (7-2) (40-32) 0.580 (11-15) 0.423
21 AAC HOUSTON (7-2) (38-33) 0.535 (15-17) 0.469
22 ACC NORTH CAROLINA (7-2) (38-34) 0.528 (15-18) 0.455
23 ACC VIRGINIA TECH (7-2) (37-35) 0.514 (12-20) 0.275
24 AAC SOUTH FLORIDA (7-2) (36-37) 0.493 (12-16) 0.429
25 B12 OKLAHOMA STATE (7-2) (35-36) 0.493 (13-21) 0.382

 

As the season concludes the rankings will stil remain the same but soon be transposed into playoff rankings. In the next two weeks, Alabama will add an FCS game to their total and any FCS games scheduled counts as a win or loss but does not count as part of your FBS schedule data. This means Alabama is more than likely not going to beable to retain their #1 rank in my poll.  I will explain more when that happens.

Please follow me on Twitter at cfbpoexpert

Comments, questions and debate welcomed by all. Let see how this final 3 weeks determine my field of 16.

 


Alabama Holds #1 Ranking for Now


This college football seson has seen it share of great games and surprises. Alabama stills holds onto the Number 1 ranking in my weekly poll. However, there were some position changes with GREAT FBS programs below Alabama, who could and CAN pose a challenge to Alabama. Alabama (8-0) travels to Baton Rouge this week to play (5-2) LSU. Do not be surpired if Aabama falls out of the small group of 0-loss programs after playing at LSU. This college fotball season has seen its share of upsets, surprises and great story lines.

With four weeks of college football left in the regular season schedule, excluding the traditional Army/Navy game, we are now down to five 0-loss teams left and still Western Michigan is not receiveing any credit in the weekly polls outside of mine. I rank the Western Michigan Broncos 4th in my poll. The published polls of the AMWAY Coaches Poll (a.k.a. USA Today Coaches Poll), and the AP Poll has Western Michiagn ranked 18th and 17th. When the CFP Polls are announced November 1st live on the “expert” sports channel, I bet Western Michigan is not ranked any higher than 20th. Just curious of those FIVE 0-loss programs left, who will remain standing at 0-losses? My bet is if Western Michigan is the ONLY remaining 0-loss FBS program standing at the end of the season, then the very in-experienced CFP committee won’t even give them a sniff or credibilty to compete for the “National Championship”, the $50 Million Dollars at stake and national acccolades for college football because of “CFP Protocol”. Can anyons say Sherman Act breach of anti-trust.

As of the completion of this past weekends games, 37 FBS programs have earned bowl eligibilty. with a group of 24 5-win FBS programs waiting in the wings within the coming two weeks to secure bowl eligibilty. If all 24 5-win programs win this week and or next, that makes the bowl eligible group total to be 61. Right behind that group of 5-win programs, is a group of 25 4-win programs who are working towards bowl eligibilty. If all 25 of those 4-win programs earn bowl eligibilty, then we have a group of 86 FBS programs eligible for post season bowls and not enough slots. My guess is, that someone gets left out.

As we get towards the end of the college football regular season, you will find that FBS programs will maintain thier rankings the majority of the time. Wyoming (6-2) makes my Top 25 rankings this week after pulling off a (30-28) win over Boise State, now (7-1). There were some other great games this past weekend, besides the Wyoming win over Boise State. If I were to select my field of 16 FBS teams for my mock playoff format, then my research and data holds true. The field would possess 11 Power Five Programs and 5 Group of Five Porgrams.

Here is this weeks weekly rankings:

RANK CONF TEAM RECORD OPP W/L OPP % CONF W/L CONF %
1 SEC ALABAMA (8-0) (39-27) 0.591 (12-13) 0.480
2 B10 MICHIGAN (8-0) (32-33) 0.492 (8-17) 0.320
3 ACC CLEMSON (8-0) (37-18) 0.673 (11-14) 0.440
4 MAC WESTERN MICHIGAN (8-0) (27-32) 0.458 (9-10) 0.474
5 P12 WASHINGTON (8-0) (29-36) 0.446 (9-18) 0.333
6 B10 OHIO STATE (7-1) (35-29) 0.547 (12-13) 0.480
7 MWC BOISE STATE (7-1) (33-30) 0.524 (10-7) 0.588
8 ACC LOUISVILLE (7-1) (31-33) 0.484 (11-15) 0.423
9 B10 NEBRASKA (7-1) (29-36) 0.446 (10-15) 0.400
10 SEC TEXAS A&M (7-1) (33-23) 0.589 (14-11) 0.560
11 MWC SAN DIEGO STATE (7-1) (20-39) 0.339 (5-15) 0.250
12 AAC HOUSTON (7-2) (34-29) 0.540 (13-15) 0.464
13 AAC SOUTH FLORIDA (7-2) (32-33) 0.492 (11-14) 0.440
14 P12 UTAH (7-2) (31-34) 0.477 (13-18) 0.419
15 SEC FLORIDA (6-1) (26-31) 0.456 (9-16) 0.360
16 B12 WEST VIRGINIA (6-1) (25-23) 0.521 (11-9) 0.550
17 SBC TROY (6-1) (25-23) 0.521 (5-12) 0.294
18 B12 BAYLOR (6-1) (17-31) 0.354 (6-14) 0.300
19 B10 WISCONSIN (6-2) (41-23) 0.641 (16-9) 0.640
20 B10 PENN STATE (6-2) (43-23) 0.652 (15-10) 0.600
21 SEC AUBURN (6-2) (36-26) 0.581 (10-12) 0.455
22 B12 OKLAHOMA (6-2) (34-31) 0.523 (9-16) 0.36
23 SBC APPLACHIAN STATE (6-2) (32-32) 0.500 (8-9) 0.471
24 P12 COLORADO (6-2) (39-26) 0.600 (11-17) 0.393
25 MWC WYOMING (6-2) (33-24) 0.579 (8-9) 0.471

Please share, comments and questions on twitter at cbpoexpert

Let the last four weeks of college football be fun, crazy, exciting and full of surprises.


Alabama Retains #1 Ranking


With the college football season playing within the last half of the season, upsets will occur as well as FBS programs maintaining their ranking and dominance. The last half of the college football season always seems to be the most interesting part of the season, since anything can happen from this half way point forward. Alabama (8-0) retains my number 1 ranking in this weeks poll, but could relinquish it after this upcoming weekend games and results. Even thought Alabama has a bye week this week, those (7-0) programs that play this weekend will make that (8-0) group more interesting to rank and easier to compare data against each other. Western Michigan moves up this week to the second ranked spot in my polls, as the only other (8-0) FBS team. There are five (7-0) FBS programs ranked behind both Alabama and Western Michigan. We will see who maintains their 0-loss records and changes their ranking position after this weekends games.

The biggest surprise of the weekend was Ohio State losing to Penn State (24-21), which dropped Ohio State in my polls to being ranked 12th and Penn State enters my rankings at 23rd. Along the way there will be more surprises in store. Could those surpises be Alabama losing to LSU or Auburn. Could another suprprise be Western Michigan and Boise State both be the only remaining 0-loss programs left and vehemetly being denied opportuity to compete in ther CFP playoffs, the $50 Million Dollars on the table and the opportunity to be called “National Champion”. I guess we will see how the last half of the CFB season plays out.

This weeks rankings:

RANK CONF TEAM RECORD OPP W/L OPP % CONF W/L CONF %
1 SEC ALABAMA (8-0) (34-25) 0.576 (11-11) 0.500
2 MAC WESTERN MICHIGAN (8-0) (27-26) 0.509 (9-7) 0.563
3 B10 MICHIGAN (7-0) (28-24) 0.538 (6-11) 0.353
4 MWC BOISE STATE (7-0) (25-26) 0.49 (5-6) 0.455
5 B10 NEBRASKA (7-0) (20-30) 0.4 (6-10) 0.375
6 ACC CLEMSON (7-0) (28-14) 0.667 (10-7) 0.588
7 P12 WASHINGTON (7-0) (20-32) 0.385 (3-14) 0.176
8 P12 UTAH (7-1) (20-31) 0.392 (7-15) 0.318
9 B12 WEST VIRGINIA (6-0) (17-19) 0.472 (5-7) 0.417
10 B12 BAYLOR (6-0) (11-24) 0.314 (3-9) 0.250
11 ACC LOUISVILLE (6-1) (28-23) 0.549 (9-9) 0.500
12 B10 OHIO STATE (6-1) (26-25) 0.510 (6-11) 0.353
13 SBC TROY (6-1) (22-21) 0.512 (4-11) 0.267
14 SEC TEXAS A&M (6-1) (29-16) 0.644 (12-10) 0.545
15 MAC TOLEDO (6-1) (14-31) 0.311 (4-8) 0.333
16 MWC SAN DIEGO STATE (6-1) (14-31) 0.311 (3-9) 0.250
17 P12 COLORADO (6-2) (34-24) 0.586 (8-15) 0.348
18 ACC NORTH CAROLINA (6-2) (27-22) 0.551 (9-9) 0.500
19 AAC HOUSTON (6-2) (27-22) 0.551 (9-10) 0.474
20 AAC SOUTH FLORIDA (6-2) (25-28) 0.472 (5-11) 0.313
21 SEC FLORIDA (5-1) (20-23) 0.465 (6-10) 0.375
22 AAC NAVY (5-1) (21-16) 0.568 (6-10) 0.375
23 B10 PENN STATE (5-2) (35-16) 0.686 (6-11) 0.353
24 B12 OKLAHOMA (5-2) (28-22) 0.560 (6-10) 0.375
25 SBC APPLACHIAN STATE (5-2) (27-24) 0.529 (5-14) 0.263

KEY:

OPP W/L and %- Combined Overall Records of Opponents already played win-loss records and percentage rate

Conference W/L and %- Combined Conference Records of Conference Opponents already played win-loss records and percentage rate.

These results are as accurate and fair as you can get compared to the USA Today Coaches Poll, the AP Poll and the soon to be release CFP Committee Poll.

Questions and comments welcomed on twitter at cfbpoexpert


Alabama, Number 1 this week…


With the fourth poll in my 2016 CFB/FBS weekly rankings, Alabama has finally secured the Number 1 spot for now. Four polls, four new Number 1’s. Of the Number 1’s CFB/FBS programs I have ranked weekly, either have dropped from the Number 1 spot due to loss or Did Not Play (DNP). Both Louisville and Tennessee were dropped from the Number 1 ranked spot due to losses.  However, Michigan drops out of the Number 1 spot due to the fact that they were on a bye week and could not increase thier win total, but are still ranked fourth (4th).

There are valid arguments to be made for those CFB/FBS programs I have ranked 1 through 3, to be ranked at the top of my weekly poll. Clemson (ACC) and Western Michigan (MAC) could also be ranked Number 1 this week, but since they already played a FCS schools, I hold that against them in the rankings since FCS schools are not eligible to compete for the $50 Million dollars at stake on the table or are classified as an FBS school for football. It’s like the NY Yankees playing their farm club and receiving credit for automatic wins. Since Alabama does not play their FCS opponent until later, they will stay at Number 1 until that point or loses. However, Clemson possesses a better Opponent Win-Loss percentage and Conference Opponent Win-Loss percentage over both Alabama (SEC) and Western Michigan (MAC). So there are VALID and measurable variables to support Clemson being ranked Number 1 in my poll. With that said; Alabama, Clemson and Western Michigan all (7-0) could be ranked 1 through 3, in three different ways depending on the variables used.

Here is this weeks rankings.

RANK CONF TEAM RECORD OPP W/L OPP % CONF W/L CONF %
1 SEC ALABAMA (7-0) (26-21) 0.553 (6-8) 0.429
2 ACC CLEMSON (7-0) (25-12) 0.676 (9-5) 0.643
3 MWC WESTERN MICHIGAN (7-0) (18-21) 0.462 (5-4) 0.556
4 B10 MICHIGAN (6-0) (21-18) 0.538 (3-7) 0.300
5 B10 OHIO STATE (6-0) (18-20) 0.474 (2-8) 0.200
6 MWC BOISE STATE (6-0) (16-21) 0.432 (3-6) 0.333
7 B10 NEBRASKA (6-0) (15-22) 0.405 (4-5) 0.444
8 SEC TEXAS A&M (6-0) (19-14) 0.576 (6-9) 0.400
9 P12 WASHINGTON (6-0) (18-22) 0.450 (2-9) 0.182
10 B12 BAYLOR (6-0) (8-23) 0.258 (2-8) 0.200
11 AAC HOUSTON (6-1) (20-16) 0.556 (5-7) 0.417
12 AAC SOUTH FLORIDA (6-1) (17-23) 0.425 (1-8) 0.111
13 P12 UTAH (6-1) (16-23) 0.410 (5-10) 0.333
14 B12 WEST VIRGINIA (5-0) (12-13) 0.480 (2-4) 0.333
15 ACC LOUISVILLE (5-1) (22-19) 0.537 (7-7) 0.500
16 SEC FLORIDA (5-1) (17-21) 0.447 (5-10) 0.333
17 SBC TROY (5-1) (18-15) 0.545 (4-5) 0.444
18 MAC TOLEDO (5-1) (13-21) 0.382 (2-4) 0.333
19 AAC MEMPHIS (5-1) (12-20) 0.375 (2-3) 0.400
20 MWC SAN DIEGO STATE (5-1) (10-22) 0.313 (2-4) 0.333
21 SEC TENNESSEEE (5-2) (34-11) 0.756 (13-4) 0.765
22 ACC FLORIDA STATE (5-2) (27-11) 0.711 (9-6) 0.600
23 SEC ARKANSAS (5-2) (26-12) 0.684 (9-2) 0.818
24 ACC NORTH CAROLINA (5-2) (24-15) 0.615 (7-6) 0.538
25 ACC PITTSBURGH (5-2) (21-17) 0.553 (5-5) 0.500

My rankings possesses more validity and credibility in ranking FBS programs 1 through 25 because I examine, evaluate and assess variables that the USA Today Coaches, the AP Press Voters, the “expert” ESPN media members and CFP committee fail to review or accept as valid rankings variables. These voters, media members and committee members use the eye test or vested interest to rank CFB/FBS programs 1 through 25. If you review my rankings this week, I have all FBS conferences ranked within my Top 25, except Conference USA (CUSA). I hold no bias or favortism, numbers and data do not lie.

Now the 2016 FBS season starts to get more interesting with many menaingful scheduled games to be played. We are now down to 11 (0) loss programs and 9 (1) loss FBS programs still standing in college football. At the half mile pole of the CFB/FBS 2016 season, I wonder what the next poll will show? Will we lose any more (0) loss teams and will more (1) loss teams become (2) loss teams. Let the remaining games of the 2016 FBS/CFB season be entertaining and un-predictable. I look forward to the outcomes of those games scheduled.

I take questions and comments on twitter at  @cfbpoexpert

Please share with your college football friends and family.

 


Week 3 Poll: Michigan Takes the Number 1 Spot


This 2016 college football season has seen some very interesting games and outcomes. Expectations of who were perceived as the best FBS teams when the pre season polls were released, but reality does rear its head as the season plays out. Last weeks Number 1; Tennessee fell to a very good Texas A&M team who could end up beating Alabama in a few weeks. There are surprises in this weesk Top 25 poll with the Washington Huskies, Western Michigan, Navy and Troy being in the Top 25. In the next few weeks I will add reasons and data points on why certain FBS programs are ranked the way I have ranked them.

Within two weeks, our 0-loss program numbers have dwindled down to just 11 now, from 23. Of those 11 remaining 0-loss programs, we could see only 1 zero loss program left standing at the end of the FBS season, prior to the bowl games and conference championship games. Who will that 1 program be, I have my thoughts but I will let the season play out.

Here my weekly Top 25 rankings for college football at the FBS level.

1      B10         MICHIGAN                     (6-0)
2      SEC        ALABAMA                       (6-0)
3      ACC        CLEMSON                      (6-0)
4      SEC        TEXAS A&M                   (6-0)
5      MAC       WESTERN MICHIGAN (6-0)
6      P12         WASHINGTON              (6-0)
7      B10         OHIO STATE                  (5-0)
8     MWC       BOISE STATE                 (5-0)
9     B10          NEBRASKA                    (5-0)
10   B12          BAYLOR                          (5-0)
11   SEC         TENNESSEEE                 (5-1)
12    AAC        HOUSTON                      (5-1)
13    ACC        WAKE FOREST              (5-1)
14    P12         ARIZONA STATE           (5-1)
15    AAC        SOUTH FLORIDA           (5-1)
16    P12         UTAH                              (5-1)
17    B12         WEST VIRGINIA            (4-0)
18    B10         WISCONSIN                   (4-1)
19    ACC        LOUISVILLE                   (4-1)
20   SEC         FLORIDA                          (4-1)
21   AAC         NAVY                               (4-1)
22   SBC         TROY                                (4-1)
23    ACC        VIRGINIA TECH              (4-1)
24    B10         MARYLAND                    (4-1)
25    ACC        NC STATE                       (4-1)

This Top 25 in which I have ranked, possesses no vested interest in who is ranked and or where they are ranked. My objetcive is to get it right and make sure those FBS programs who need to be ranked in the other public and published polls receive notoriety and due recognition for thier success. All FBS CFB programs are equal.

If you have any questions or comments please send them to me through twitter @cfbpoexpert

Please share this post with all your friends and college football fans across the country.


Tennessee Vols Number 1 in this weeks poll


There were some position movements within this next poll from the first poll last week. Last weeks number 1, Louisville Cardinals loss to Clemson Saturday, dropped out of the top spot in my poll. As the CFB season progresses there with many key match-ups on the remaining schedule, which of the remaining 16 0-loss FBS programs will remain at the end of the season. My prediction on that will be 2, 0-loss prorgams remaining at the end of the 2016 CFB season.

Many of you will wonder why I do not have Alabama ranked Number 1 in my poll. I use different variables which are measurable and accountable against your current season, in addition to what research proves on those specific variables. The media, coaches and CFP committee use their own variables which does posses vested interests in how they rank the FBS programs. I have no vested interests or a stake with the $50 Million Dollars, the trophy or the right to be called national champion at the FBS level. I possess a more Stuart Mills like approach.

Here is my Top 25 for Week 2 of the 2016 FBS season:

1     SEC       TENNESSEEE                     (5-0)
2     B10       MICHIGAN                          (5-0)
3     SEC      ALABAMA                            (5-0)
4     B10       NEBRASKA                         (5-0)
5     ACC      CLEMSON                           (5-0)
6     MAC     WESTERN MICHIGAN      (5-0)
7     AAC      HOUSTON                           (5-0)
8    SEC       TEXAS A&M                        (5-0)
9    P12        WASHINGTON                   (5-0)
10  B12        BAYLOR                              (5-0)
11   B10       OHIO STATE                      (4-0)
12   MWC   BOISE STATE                       (4-0)
13   ACC     MIAMI (FLA)                       (4-0)
14   B10       MARYLAND                        (4-0)
15   MWC   AIR FORCE                          (4-0)
16   B12      WEST VIRGINIA                 (4-0)
17   ACC      LOUISVILLE                        (4-1)
18   SEC      FLORIDA                              (4-1)
19   B10      WISCONSIN                         (4-1)
20  SBC      TROY                                     (4-1)
21  ACC      NORTH CAROLINA             (4-1)
22  CUSA  SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI   (4-1)
23  MAC    EASTERN MICHIGAN         (4-1)
24  SEC     ARKANSAS                            (4-1)
25  ACC     WAKE FOREST                     (4-1)

As the CFB season concludes, I will explain how I rank and what variables I use to support a more accurate ranking of the CFB porgrams without subjective assessment from the Sports Media and Coaches who have vested interest.

If you have any questions or comments please send them to me on twitter @cfbpoexpert


The First Top 25 Rankings for the 2016 FBS Season


With the NCAA College Football 2016 FBS season underway with 4-weeks in, we now can start to formulate and assess the first weekly rankings based upon many variables. The varaible I use to rank my Top 25 starts with wins-losses, looks at the non-conference scheduling practices, was an FCS game already played and the current overall record of the opponents already played.

Here are some interesting facts that are current about this 2016 FBS season. As of right now there are 27 zero (0) loss programs, and 28 one (1) loss programs. its hard to rank one through twenty five, but using the measurable variables that I do. I have made some adustments to my ranking and assessment system. This weeks rankings are as follows with no favortism or subjectve bias. Since it’s early in the 2016 FBS season, I will rank (1) through (27).

First Weekly Rankings 9/25/2016:

1      ACC          LOUISVILLE                          (4-0)
2      SEC          TENNESSEEE                       (4-0)
3      B10           MICHIGAN                           (4-0)
4      B10           WISCONSIN                         (4-0)
5      B10           NEBRASKA                           (4-0)
6      SEC           ALABAMA                            (4-0)
7      MAC         WESTERN MICHIGAN        (4-0)
8      ACC          CLEMSON                            (4-0)
9      ACC          WAKE FOREST                    (4-0)
10    AAC          HOUSTON                            (4-0)
11     P12          ARIZONA STATE                 (4-0)
12     B12          BAYLOR                                (4-0)
13     P12          UTAH                                     (4-0)
14     SEC          TEXAS A&M                         (4-0)
15     P12           WASHINGTON                    (4-0)
16     MWC        BOISE STATE                       (3-0)
17     B10           OHIO STATE                        (3-0)
18     P12           STANFORD                          (3-0)
19     AAC          NAVY                                     (3-0)
20     ACC          MIAMI (FLA)                         (3-0)
21      B10          MARYLAND                          (3-0)
22     MWC        SAN DIEGO STATE               (3-0)
23     MAC         TOLEDO                                (3-0)
24      AAC         MEMPHIS                             (3-0)
25      MWC        AIR FORCE                           (3-0)
26      B10          MINNESOTA                         (3-0)
27      B12          WEST VIRGINIA                   (3-0)

How this ranking breaksdown is; (6) Big 10, (4) ACC,  (4) PAC 12, (3) AAC, (3) PAC 12, (3) MWC, (3) SEC (2) Big 12,  and (2) MAC. So far well balanced. To answer the “experts” questions of which conference is the best conference, the rankings tell the tale. Numbers and data do not lie.

These 2016 CFB FBS rankings will appear weekly. Please share these rankings with any media personnel you may know or yoru college football friends.

IF you have any questions or comments please forward them to me through twitter @cfbpoexpert

 

 


Clemson and Iowa are atop the Polls


This past weekend of college football was very precitible, entertaining and lots of games that made the weekend full of excitement. After Ohio State and Oklahoma State losses this past wekeend, it allowed Clemson and Iowa to move into the top two (2) spots. Interesting Iowa has not been getting the ranking they deserve but remain as a 0-loss FBS program. Clemson and Iowa are both (11-0) heading into this weeks final games for them and could maintain as the only two (2) 0-loss FBS prorgams. This is what my research proved, that during the course of the college football season that on average only 2.5 FBS teams will remain un-beaten or as 0-loss programs. You cannot say Clemson and Iowa have not earned the top spots this season to this point in time. As for the rest of the FBS programs, those with 0-losses earned their first loss. With Clemson and Iowa at (11-0), thay have already secured a spot in my field of 16 mock playoff system. With 14 spots remaining which of the remaining twelve (12) 1-loss teams will earn their spot and which of those 1-loss teams will be dropped to the 2-loss group. My research proved that all 1-loss FBS programs would earn a spot in the field of 16 in my mock playoff brackets. Now the ultimate question is, which of the 2-loss programs will stay at two (2) losses to be evaluated for the remaning spots after all the 0-loss and 1-loss teams are seeded?

Now the most interesting moments of this past weekends college football season was the struggles that the Southeastern Conference (SEC) had with the Sun Belt, Conference USA and an FCS program. The upset of the week goes to the Academy at Citadel for beating South Carolina 23-22. Then to add to that, Florida (9-1) struggles with (2-8) Florida Atlantic, needing overtime to squeak the victory away from them 20-14. Speaking of overtime, Georgia (7-3) needed overtime to squeak by Georgia Southern (7-2) 23-17. To add to those three (3) games, Auburn (5-5) needed to play a stronger second half to pull away from Idaho (3-7) 55-34. Seems to me that the SEC has lost its dominance, but the voters and CFP commiteee just does not see it that way. The SEC does have a media and CFP committee bias. They wont admit it, but its clearly evident.

The rankings this week showed many changes since the weekend created many losses with FBS teams that you thought would win, but did not. Tell me ESPN, how is that FPI rating system working for you? In time studies and research will be performed on that provings it not a viable or credible metric or data point to rank FBS football programs. As the season progressed the cream usually rises to the top of the forefront. Now for my weekly rankings for FBS college football. Remember there are two (2) types of rankings, PMT for the Professional Model Theory and the PMT+ which is the Professional Model Theory plus other categorical variables.

The rankings below are from my statistcal analysis and data collection experience and expertise on college football ranking systems.

PMT Rankings:

CLEMSON (11-0)  ↑ 1
IOWA (11-0)  ↑ 1
NOTRE DAME (10-1)  ↑ 3
OKLAHOMA (10-1)  ↑ 3
MICHIGAN STATE (10-1)  ↑ 3
OHIO STATE (10-1)  ↓ 5
FLORIDA (10-1)  ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA STATE (10-1)  ↓ 4
HOUSTON (10-1)  ↓ 4
ALABAMA (10-1)  ↑ 1
NORTH CAROLINA (10-1)  ↑ 1
TOLEDO (9-1)  ↑ 1
NAVY (9-1)  ↑ 1
BAYLOR (9-1)  ↑ 1
WESTERN KENTUCKY (9-2)  ↑ 2
TEMPLE (9-2)  ↑ 3
MICHIGAN (9-2)  ↑ 4
STANFORD (9-2)  ↑ 4
MARSHALL (9-2)  ↓ 3
NORTHWESTERN (9-2)  ↑ 6
FLORIDA STATE (9-2)  ↑ 5
TCU (9-2)  ↓12
APPALACHIAN STATE (8-2)  ↑ 2
BOWLING GREEN (8-3)  ↑ 2
UTAH (8-3)  ↓ 5
NEXT FIVE
UCLA (8-3)  ↑
WISCONSIN (8-3)  ↓
BYU (8-3)  ↑
MEMPHIS (8-3)  ↓
PITTSBURGH (8-3)  ↑

PMT+ Rankings

CLEMSON (11-0)  ↑ 1
IOWA (11-0)  ↑ 1
NOTRE DAME (10-1)  ↑ 3
MICHIGAN STATE (10-1)  ↑ 5
FLORIDA (10-1)  ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA (10-1)  ↑ 2
OHIO STATE (10-1)  ↓ 6
ALABAMA (10-1)  ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA STATE (10-1)  ↓ 5
HOUSTON (10-1)  ↓ 5
NORTH CAROLINA (10-1)  ↔
NAVY (9-1)  ↑ 1
TOLEDO (9-1)  ↑ 2
BAYLOR (9-1)  ↔
MICHIGAN (9-2)  ↑ 3
STANFORD (9-2)  ↑ 3
TEMPLE (9-2)  ↑ 6
WESTERN KENTUCKY (9-2)  ↑ 4
NORTHWESTERN (9-2)  ↑ 7
FLORIDA STATE (9-2)  ↑ 6
TCU (9-2)  ↓9
MARSHALL (9-2)  ↓6
APPALACHIAN STATE (8-2)  ↑ 2
UTAH (8-3)  ↓ 7
UCLA (8-3)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
BOWLING GREEN (8-3)  ↓
WISCONSIN (8-3)  ↓
MEMPHIS (8-3)  ↓
PITTSBURGH (8-3)  ↑
BYU (8-3)  ↑

Seems that the AAC has been consistent week to week in my polls as the SEC has many dropped from my polls.  At the end of the CFB/FBS season, I will publish several posts that are statistically driven to show evidence of what the committee and subjective voters fail to see, recognize or even report on. Thus poroving that there are hidden biases in college football at thi s

To the sports media, If you use any of my postings for your own in comments within your publishings or articles or posts, this includes use of radio and television broadcast’ please use the APA/MLA format and cite the the source.

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here or through twitter at     cfbpoexpert.com