Alabama Retains #1 Ranking


With the college football season playing within the last half of the season, upsets will occur as well as FBS programs maintaining their ranking and dominance. The last half of the college football season always seems to be the most interesting part of the season, since anything can happen from this half way point forward. Alabama (8-0) retains my number 1 ranking in this weeks poll, but could relinquish it after this upcoming weekend games and results. Even thought Alabama has a bye week this week, those (7-0) programs that play this weekend will make that (8-0) group more interesting to rank and easier to compare data against each other. Western Michigan moves up this week to the second ranked spot in my polls, as the only other (8-0) FBS team. There are five (7-0) FBS programs ranked behind both Alabama and Western Michigan. We will see who maintains their 0-loss records and changes their ranking position after this weekends games.

The biggest surprise of the weekend was Ohio State losing to Penn State (24-21), which dropped Ohio State in my polls to being ranked 12th and Penn State enters my rankings at 23rd. Along the way there will be more surprises in store. Could those surpises be Alabama losing to LSU or Auburn. Could another suprprise be Western Michigan and Boise State both be the only remaining 0-loss programs left and vehemetly being denied opportuity to compete in ther CFP playoffs, the $50 Million Dollars on the table and the opportunity to be called “National Champion”. I guess we will see how the last half of the CFB season plays out.

This weeks rankings:

RANK CONF TEAM RECORD OPP W/L OPP % CONF W/L CONF %
1 SEC ALABAMA (8-0) (34-25) 0.576 (11-11) 0.500
2 MAC WESTERN MICHIGAN (8-0) (27-26) 0.509 (9-7) 0.563
3 B10 MICHIGAN (7-0) (28-24) 0.538 (6-11) 0.353
4 MWC BOISE STATE (7-0) (25-26) 0.49 (5-6) 0.455
5 B10 NEBRASKA (7-0) (20-30) 0.4 (6-10) 0.375
6 ACC CLEMSON (7-0) (28-14) 0.667 (10-7) 0.588
7 P12 WASHINGTON (7-0) (20-32) 0.385 (3-14) 0.176
8 P12 UTAH (7-1) (20-31) 0.392 (7-15) 0.318
9 B12 WEST VIRGINIA (6-0) (17-19) 0.472 (5-7) 0.417
10 B12 BAYLOR (6-0) (11-24) 0.314 (3-9) 0.250
11 ACC LOUISVILLE (6-1) (28-23) 0.549 (9-9) 0.500
12 B10 OHIO STATE (6-1) (26-25) 0.510 (6-11) 0.353
13 SBC TROY (6-1) (22-21) 0.512 (4-11) 0.267
14 SEC TEXAS A&M (6-1) (29-16) 0.644 (12-10) 0.545
15 MAC TOLEDO (6-1) (14-31) 0.311 (4-8) 0.333
16 MWC SAN DIEGO STATE (6-1) (14-31) 0.311 (3-9) 0.250
17 P12 COLORADO (6-2) (34-24) 0.586 (8-15) 0.348
18 ACC NORTH CAROLINA (6-2) (27-22) 0.551 (9-9) 0.500
19 AAC HOUSTON (6-2) (27-22) 0.551 (9-10) 0.474
20 AAC SOUTH FLORIDA (6-2) (25-28) 0.472 (5-11) 0.313
21 SEC FLORIDA (5-1) (20-23) 0.465 (6-10) 0.375
22 AAC NAVY (5-1) (21-16) 0.568 (6-10) 0.375
23 B10 PENN STATE (5-2) (35-16) 0.686 (6-11) 0.353
24 B12 OKLAHOMA (5-2) (28-22) 0.560 (6-10) 0.375
25 SBC APPLACHIAN STATE (5-2) (27-24) 0.529 (5-14) 0.263

KEY:

OPP W/L and %- Combined Overall Records of Opponents already played win-loss records and percentage rate

Conference W/L and %- Combined Conference Records of Conference Opponents already played win-loss records and percentage rate.

These results are as accurate and fair as you can get compared to the USA Today Coaches Poll, the AP Poll and the soon to be release CFP Committee Poll.

Questions and comments welcomed on twitter at cfbpoexpert


Alabama, Number 1 this week…


With the fourth poll in my 2016 CFB/FBS weekly rankings, Alabama has finally secured the Number 1 spot for now. Four polls, four new Number 1’s. Of the Number 1’s CFB/FBS programs I have ranked weekly, either have dropped from the Number 1 spot due to loss or Did Not Play (DNP). Both Louisville and Tennessee were dropped from the Number 1 ranked spot due to losses.  However, Michigan drops out of the Number 1 spot due to the fact that they were on a bye week and could not increase thier win total, but are still ranked fourth (4th).

There are valid arguments to be made for those CFB/FBS programs I have ranked 1 through 3, to be ranked at the top of my weekly poll. Clemson (ACC) and Western Michigan (MAC) could also be ranked Number 1 this week, but since they already played a FCS schools, I hold that against them in the rankings since FCS schools are not eligible to compete for the $50 Million dollars at stake on the table or are classified as an FBS school for football. It’s like the NY Yankees playing their farm club and receiving credit for automatic wins. Since Alabama does not play their FCS opponent until later, they will stay at Number 1 until that point or loses. However, Clemson possesses a better Opponent Win-Loss percentage and Conference Opponent Win-Loss percentage over both Alabama (SEC) and Western Michigan (MAC). So there are VALID and measurable variables to support Clemson being ranked Number 1 in my poll. With that said; Alabama, Clemson and Western Michigan all (7-0) could be ranked 1 through 3, in three different ways depending on the variables used.

Here is this weeks rankings.

RANK CONF TEAM RECORD OPP W/L OPP % CONF W/L CONF %
1 SEC ALABAMA (7-0) (26-21) 0.553 (6-8) 0.429
2 ACC CLEMSON (7-0) (25-12) 0.676 (9-5) 0.643
3 MWC WESTERN MICHIGAN (7-0) (18-21) 0.462 (5-4) 0.556
4 B10 MICHIGAN (6-0) (21-18) 0.538 (3-7) 0.300
5 B10 OHIO STATE (6-0) (18-20) 0.474 (2-8) 0.200
6 MWC BOISE STATE (6-0) (16-21) 0.432 (3-6) 0.333
7 B10 NEBRASKA (6-0) (15-22) 0.405 (4-5) 0.444
8 SEC TEXAS A&M (6-0) (19-14) 0.576 (6-9) 0.400
9 P12 WASHINGTON (6-0) (18-22) 0.450 (2-9) 0.182
10 B12 BAYLOR (6-0) (8-23) 0.258 (2-8) 0.200
11 AAC HOUSTON (6-1) (20-16) 0.556 (5-7) 0.417
12 AAC SOUTH FLORIDA (6-1) (17-23) 0.425 (1-8) 0.111
13 P12 UTAH (6-1) (16-23) 0.410 (5-10) 0.333
14 B12 WEST VIRGINIA (5-0) (12-13) 0.480 (2-4) 0.333
15 ACC LOUISVILLE (5-1) (22-19) 0.537 (7-7) 0.500
16 SEC FLORIDA (5-1) (17-21) 0.447 (5-10) 0.333
17 SBC TROY (5-1) (18-15) 0.545 (4-5) 0.444
18 MAC TOLEDO (5-1) (13-21) 0.382 (2-4) 0.333
19 AAC MEMPHIS (5-1) (12-20) 0.375 (2-3) 0.400
20 MWC SAN DIEGO STATE (5-1) (10-22) 0.313 (2-4) 0.333
21 SEC TENNESSEEE (5-2) (34-11) 0.756 (13-4) 0.765
22 ACC FLORIDA STATE (5-2) (27-11) 0.711 (9-6) 0.600
23 SEC ARKANSAS (5-2) (26-12) 0.684 (9-2) 0.818
24 ACC NORTH CAROLINA (5-2) (24-15) 0.615 (7-6) 0.538
25 ACC PITTSBURGH (5-2) (21-17) 0.553 (5-5) 0.500

My rankings possesses more validity and credibility in ranking FBS programs 1 through 25 because I examine, evaluate and assess variables that the USA Today Coaches, the AP Press Voters, the “expert” ESPN media members and CFP committee fail to review or accept as valid rankings variables. These voters, media members and committee members use the eye test or vested interest to rank CFB/FBS programs 1 through 25. If you review my rankings this week, I have all FBS conferences ranked within my Top 25, except Conference USA (CUSA). I hold no bias or favortism, numbers and data do not lie.

Now the 2016 FBS season starts to get more interesting with many menaingful scheduled games to be played. We are now down to 11 (0) loss programs and 9 (1) loss FBS programs still standing in college football. At the half mile pole of the CFB/FBS 2016 season, I wonder what the next poll will show? Will we lose any more (0) loss teams and will more (1) loss teams become (2) loss teams. Let the remaining games of the 2016 FBS/CFB season be entertaining and un-predictable. I look forward to the outcomes of those games scheduled.

I take questions and comments on twitter at  @cfbpoexpert

Please share with your college football friends and family.

 


Week 3 Poll: Michigan Takes the Number 1 Spot


This 2016 college football season has seen some very interesting games and outcomes. Expectations of who were perceived as the best FBS teams when the pre season polls were released, but reality does rear its head as the season plays out. Last weeks Number 1; Tennessee fell to a very good Texas A&M team who could end up beating Alabama in a few weeks. There are surprises in this weesk Top 25 poll with the Washington Huskies, Western Michigan, Navy and Troy being in the Top 25. In the next few weeks I will add reasons and data points on why certain FBS programs are ranked the way I have ranked them.

Within two weeks, our 0-loss program numbers have dwindled down to just 11 now, from 23. Of those 11 remaining 0-loss programs, we could see only 1 zero loss program left standing at the end of the FBS season, prior to the bowl games and conference championship games. Who will that 1 program be, I have my thoughts but I will let the season play out.

Here my weekly Top 25 rankings for college football at the FBS level.

1      B10         MICHIGAN                     (6-0)
2      SEC        ALABAMA                       (6-0)
3      ACC        CLEMSON                      (6-0)
4      SEC        TEXAS A&M                   (6-0)
5      MAC       WESTERN MICHIGAN (6-0)
6      P12         WASHINGTON              (6-0)
7      B10         OHIO STATE                  (5-0)
8     MWC       BOISE STATE                 (5-0)
9     B10          NEBRASKA                    (5-0)
10   B12          BAYLOR                          (5-0)
11   SEC         TENNESSEEE                 (5-1)
12    AAC        HOUSTON                      (5-1)
13    ACC        WAKE FOREST              (5-1)
14    P12         ARIZONA STATE           (5-1)
15    AAC        SOUTH FLORIDA           (5-1)
16    P12         UTAH                              (5-1)
17    B12         WEST VIRGINIA            (4-0)
18    B10         WISCONSIN                   (4-1)
19    ACC        LOUISVILLE                   (4-1)
20   SEC         FLORIDA                          (4-1)
21   AAC         NAVY                               (4-1)
22   SBC         TROY                                (4-1)
23    ACC        VIRGINIA TECH              (4-1)
24    B10         MARYLAND                    (4-1)
25    ACC        NC STATE                       (4-1)

This Top 25 in which I have ranked, possesses no vested interest in who is ranked and or where they are ranked. My objetcive is to get it right and make sure those FBS programs who need to be ranked in the other public and published polls receive notoriety and due recognition for thier success. All FBS CFB programs are equal.

If you have any questions or comments please send them to me through twitter @cfbpoexpert

Please share this post with all your friends and college football fans across the country.


Tennessee Vols Number 1 in this weeks poll


There were some position movements within this next poll from the first poll last week. Last weeks number 1, Louisville Cardinals loss to Clemson Saturday, dropped out of the top spot in my poll. As the CFB season progresses there with many key match-ups on the remaining schedule, which of the remaining 16 0-loss FBS programs will remain at the end of the season. My prediction on that will be 2, 0-loss prorgams remaining at the end of the 2016 CFB season.

Many of you will wonder why I do not have Alabama ranked Number 1 in my poll. I use different variables which are measurable and accountable against your current season, in addition to what research proves on those specific variables. The media, coaches and CFP committee use their own variables which does posses vested interests in how they rank the FBS programs. I have no vested interests or a stake with the $50 Million Dollars, the trophy or the right to be called national champion at the FBS level. I possess a more Stuart Mills like approach.

Here is my Top 25 for Week 2 of the 2016 FBS season:

1     SEC       TENNESSEEE                     (5-0)
2     B10       MICHIGAN                          (5-0)
3     SEC      ALABAMA                            (5-0)
4     B10       NEBRASKA                         (5-0)
5     ACC      CLEMSON                           (5-0)
6     MAC     WESTERN MICHIGAN      (5-0)
7     AAC      HOUSTON                           (5-0)
8    SEC       TEXAS A&M                        (5-0)
9    P12        WASHINGTON                   (5-0)
10  B12        BAYLOR                              (5-0)
11   B10       OHIO STATE                      (4-0)
12   MWC   BOISE STATE                       (4-0)
13   ACC     MIAMI (FLA)                       (4-0)
14   B10       MARYLAND                        (4-0)
15   MWC   AIR FORCE                          (4-0)
16   B12      WEST VIRGINIA                 (4-0)
17   ACC      LOUISVILLE                        (4-1)
18   SEC      FLORIDA                              (4-1)
19   B10      WISCONSIN                         (4-1)
20  SBC      TROY                                     (4-1)
21  ACC      NORTH CAROLINA             (4-1)
22  CUSA  SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI   (4-1)
23  MAC    EASTERN MICHIGAN         (4-1)
24  SEC     ARKANSAS                            (4-1)
25  ACC     WAKE FOREST                     (4-1)

As the CFB season concludes, I will explain how I rank and what variables I use to support a more accurate ranking of the CFB porgrams without subjective assessment from the Sports Media and Coaches who have vested interest.

If you have any questions or comments please send them to me on twitter @cfbpoexpert


The First Top 25 Rankings for the 2016 FBS Season


With the NCAA College Football 2016 FBS season underway with 4-weeks in, we now can start to formulate and assess the first weekly rankings based upon many variables. The varaible I use to rank my Top 25 starts with wins-losses, looks at the non-conference scheduling practices, was an FCS game already played and the current overall record of the opponents already played.

Here are some interesting facts that are current about this 2016 FBS season. As of right now there are 27 zero (0) loss programs, and 28 one (1) loss programs. its hard to rank one through twenty five, but using the measurable variables that I do. I have made some adustments to my ranking and assessment system. This weeks rankings are as follows with no favortism or subjectve bias. Since it’s early in the 2016 FBS season, I will rank (1) through (27).

First Weekly Rankings 9/25/2016:

1      ACC          LOUISVILLE                          (4-0)
2      SEC          TENNESSEEE                       (4-0)
3      B10           MICHIGAN                           (4-0)
4      B10           WISCONSIN                         (4-0)
5      B10           NEBRASKA                           (4-0)
6      SEC           ALABAMA                            (4-0)
7      MAC         WESTERN MICHIGAN        (4-0)
8      ACC          CLEMSON                            (4-0)
9      ACC          WAKE FOREST                    (4-0)
10    AAC          HOUSTON                            (4-0)
11     P12          ARIZONA STATE                 (4-0)
12     B12          BAYLOR                                (4-0)
13     P12          UTAH                                     (4-0)
14     SEC          TEXAS A&M                         (4-0)
15     P12           WASHINGTON                    (4-0)
16     MWC        BOISE STATE                       (3-0)
17     B10           OHIO STATE                        (3-0)
18     P12           STANFORD                          (3-0)
19     AAC          NAVY                                     (3-0)
20     ACC          MIAMI (FLA)                         (3-0)
21      B10          MARYLAND                          (3-0)
22     MWC        SAN DIEGO STATE               (3-0)
23     MAC         TOLEDO                                (3-0)
24      AAC         MEMPHIS                             (3-0)
25      MWC        AIR FORCE                           (3-0)
26      B10          MINNESOTA                         (3-0)
27      B12          WEST VIRGINIA                   (3-0)

How this ranking breaksdown is; (6) Big 10, (4) ACC,  (4) PAC 12, (3) AAC, (3) PAC 12, (3) MWC, (3) SEC (2) Big 12,  and (2) MAC. So far well balanced. To answer the “experts” questions of which conference is the best conference, the rankings tell the tale. Numbers and data do not lie.

These 2016 CFB FBS rankings will appear weekly. Please share these rankings with any media personnel you may know or yoru college football friends.

IF you have any questions or comments please forward them to me through twitter @cfbpoexpert

 

 


Clemson and Iowa are atop the Polls


This past weekend of college football was very precitible, entertaining and lots of games that made the weekend full of excitement. After Ohio State and Oklahoma State losses this past wekeend, it allowed Clemson and Iowa to move into the top two (2) spots. Interesting Iowa has not been getting the ranking they deserve but remain as a 0-loss FBS program. Clemson and Iowa are both (11-0) heading into this weeks final games for them and could maintain as the only two (2) 0-loss FBS prorgams. This is what my research proved, that during the course of the college football season that on average only 2.5 FBS teams will remain un-beaten or as 0-loss programs. You cannot say Clemson and Iowa have not earned the top spots this season to this point in time. As for the rest of the FBS programs, those with 0-losses earned their first loss. With Clemson and Iowa at (11-0), thay have already secured a spot in my field of 16 mock playoff system. With 14 spots remaining which of the remaining twelve (12) 1-loss teams will earn their spot and which of those 1-loss teams will be dropped to the 2-loss group. My research proved that all 1-loss FBS programs would earn a spot in the field of 16 in my mock playoff brackets. Now the ultimate question is, which of the 2-loss programs will stay at two (2) losses to be evaluated for the remaning spots after all the 0-loss and 1-loss teams are seeded?

Now the most interesting moments of this past weekends college football season was the struggles that the Southeastern Conference (SEC) had with the Sun Belt, Conference USA and an FCS program. The upset of the week goes to the Academy at Citadel for beating South Carolina 23-22. Then to add to that, Florida (9-1) struggles with (2-8) Florida Atlantic, needing overtime to squeak the victory away from them 20-14. Speaking of overtime, Georgia (7-3) needed overtime to squeak by Georgia Southern (7-2) 23-17. To add to those three (3) games, Auburn (5-5) needed to play a stronger second half to pull away from Idaho (3-7) 55-34. Seems to me that the SEC has lost its dominance, but the voters and CFP commiteee just does not see it that way. The SEC does have a media and CFP committee bias. They wont admit it, but its clearly evident.

The rankings this week showed many changes since the weekend created many losses with FBS teams that you thought would win, but did not. Tell me ESPN, how is that FPI rating system working for you? In time studies and research will be performed on that provings it not a viable or credible metric or data point to rank FBS football programs. As the season progressed the cream usually rises to the top of the forefront. Now for my weekly rankings for FBS college football. Remember there are two (2) types of rankings, PMT for the Professional Model Theory and the PMT+ which is the Professional Model Theory plus other categorical variables.

The rankings below are from my statistcal analysis and data collection experience and expertise on college football ranking systems.

PMT Rankings:

CLEMSON (11-0)  ↑ 1
IOWA (11-0)  ↑ 1
NOTRE DAME (10-1)  ↑ 3
OKLAHOMA (10-1)  ↑ 3
MICHIGAN STATE (10-1)  ↑ 3
OHIO STATE (10-1)  ↓ 5
FLORIDA (10-1)  ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA STATE (10-1)  ↓ 4
HOUSTON (10-1)  ↓ 4
ALABAMA (10-1)  ↑ 1
NORTH CAROLINA (10-1)  ↑ 1
TOLEDO (9-1)  ↑ 1
NAVY (9-1)  ↑ 1
BAYLOR (9-1)  ↑ 1
WESTERN KENTUCKY (9-2)  ↑ 2
TEMPLE (9-2)  ↑ 3
MICHIGAN (9-2)  ↑ 4
STANFORD (9-2)  ↑ 4
MARSHALL (9-2)  ↓ 3
NORTHWESTERN (9-2)  ↑ 6
FLORIDA STATE (9-2)  ↑ 5
TCU (9-2)  ↓12
APPALACHIAN STATE (8-2)  ↑ 2
BOWLING GREEN (8-3)  ↑ 2
UTAH (8-3)  ↓ 5
NEXT FIVE
UCLA (8-3)  ↑
WISCONSIN (8-3)  ↓
BYU (8-3)  ↑
MEMPHIS (8-3)  ↓
PITTSBURGH (8-3)  ↑

PMT+ Rankings

CLEMSON (11-0)  ↑ 1
IOWA (11-0)  ↑ 1
NOTRE DAME (10-1)  ↑ 3
MICHIGAN STATE (10-1)  ↑ 5
FLORIDA (10-1)  ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA (10-1)  ↑ 2
OHIO STATE (10-1)  ↓ 6
ALABAMA (10-1)  ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA STATE (10-1)  ↓ 5
HOUSTON (10-1)  ↓ 5
NORTH CAROLINA (10-1)  ↔
NAVY (9-1)  ↑ 1
TOLEDO (9-1)  ↑ 2
BAYLOR (9-1)  ↔
MICHIGAN (9-2)  ↑ 3
STANFORD (9-2)  ↑ 3
TEMPLE (9-2)  ↑ 6
WESTERN KENTUCKY (9-2)  ↑ 4
NORTHWESTERN (9-2)  ↑ 7
FLORIDA STATE (9-2)  ↑ 6
TCU (9-2)  ↓9
MARSHALL (9-2)  ↓6
APPALACHIAN STATE (8-2)  ↑ 2
UTAH (8-3)  ↓ 7
UCLA (8-3)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
BOWLING GREEN (8-3)  ↓
WISCONSIN (8-3)  ↓
MEMPHIS (8-3)  ↓
PITTSBURGH (8-3)  ↑
BYU (8-3)  ↑

Seems that the AAC has been consistent week to week in my polls as the SEC has many dropped from my polls.  At the end of the CFB/FBS season, I will publish several posts that are statistically driven to show evidence of what the committee and subjective voters fail to see, recognize or even report on. Thus poroving that there are hidden biases in college football at thi s

To the sports media, If you use any of my postings for your own in comments within your publishings or articles or posts, this includes use of radio and television broadcast’ please use the APA/MLA format and cite the the source.

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here or through twitter at     cfbpoexpert.com


College Football Increases the Excitement


With the last few weeks of college football remaining, the rankings are starting to stablize. Many top ranked teams either just surviving or playing hard enough to win the game. Did not Coach Jim Valvano say it best “Survive and advance”. The final weeks will determine who will make my field of sixteen (16) and which FBS teams will make the final four (4) for $50 Million dollars on the CFP table. As the college footbal season un-ravels, we now know that the pre-season rankings from the so called “experts” were wrong about the Southeastern Conference (SEC). The SEC seems to be leveling off and becoming not as dominant as they once were or ever were. If I recall did not the so called “experts” rank seven (7) SEC teams in the Top 25  in the pre-season, but but now we are down to two (2) maybe three (3) in the Top 25. I believe I saw crystal balls for sale from ESPN and their group of experts on EBAY and Craigslist; selling thier crystal balls that predicts accuracy and winners. Oh that’s the Future Prediction Indicator (FP)I model they created. I guess that’s why the coaches and athletes play the games versus relying on prediction models that are suppose to tell the college football fans who will win. I wonder what was the FPI rating was for LSU winning versus Arkansas yesterday from ESPN’s FPI model. How did that game turn out. I believe Arkansas won 31-14. Oh, the SEC only has two (2) 1-loss teams left. Maybe ESPN should just stick to reporting the games and leave the analysis to real experts. Stop trying to play the role of Karnak.

A Baylor loss dropped them from the group of 0-loss programs, which now leaves us with five (5) 0-loss programs. Ohio State (10-0) has Michigan State (9-1) and Michigan(8-2) left, Clemson has Wake Forest (3-7) and South Carolina (3-7) left,  Iowa has Purdue (2-8) and Nebraska (5-6) left, Oklahoma State has Baylor (9-1) and Oklahoma (9-1) left, Houston has Connecticut (5-5) and Navy (8-1) left. Which of these five (5) 0-loss teams will survive? That means we have four (4) from the Power 5 Conferences and one (1) from the Group of Five Conerences. So if Houston is the only remaining 0-loss team left, are they in? They should be but the bias CFP committee will leave them out. Can you say breach of the Sherman Act of 1890.  My insticts tell me that Ohio State and Oklahoma State will lose one (1) of thier remaning games. My insticts also tell me that both Florida (9-1) and Alabama (9-1) will both lose thier final game of the season with Florida State and Auburn. That would mean the SEC would all have teams with 2-losses or greater and should be left out of the CFP discussion.

This weeks rankings show that that the top five (5) stayed in the same ranking position and Notre Dame moved up one (1) with the Baylor loss to Oklahoma State. Losses in my rankings are more severe than rankings used by the subjective voters for the USA Today Amway Coches polls and the AP Poll. I use the professional model theory plus other categorical variables that create a more valid ranking based upon results, not an eye test. Within my rankings, there are (16) FBS teams that represent the Power 5 Conferences and (9) that represent the Group of 5 Conferences. Intersting how the Group of Five still do not get the recognition they deserve. Below are my rankings this week for college football.

GROUP 1 PMT RANKINGS

OHIO STATE (10-0)  ↔
CLEMSON (10-0)  ↔
IOWA (10-0)  ↔
OKLAHOMA STATE (10-0)  ↔
HOUSTON (10-0)  ↔
NOTRE DAME (9-1)  ↑ 1
OKLAHOMA (9-1)  ↑ 5
MICHIGAN STATE (9-1)  ↑ 2
FLORIDA (9-1)  ↑ 4
TCU (9-1)  ↑ 5
ALABAMA (9-1)  ↑ 5
NORTH CAROLINA (9-1)  ↑ 5
TOLEDO (8-1)  ↑ 5
NAVY (8-1)  ↑ 6
BAYLOR (8-1)  ↓ 9
MARSHALL (9-2)  ↑ 7
WESTERN KENTUCKY (8-2)  ↑ 4
BOWLING GREEN (8-2)  ↑ 6
TEMPLE (8-2)  ↓11
UTAH (8-2)  ↓11
MICHIGAN (8-2)  ↑ 5
STANFORD (8-2)  ↓11
WISCONSIN (8-2)  ↓1
MEMPHIS (8-2)  ↓10
APPALACHIAN STATE (8-2)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
NORTHWESTERN (8-2)  ↑
FLORIDA STATE (8-2)  ↑
GEORGIA SOUTHERN (7-2)  ↑
LSU (7-2)  ↓
USC (7-3)  ↑

GROUP 2 PMT + RANKINGS

OHIO STATE (10-0)  ↔
CLEMSON (10-0)  ↔
IOWA (10-0)  ↔
OKLAHOMA STATE (10-0)  ↔
HOUSTON (10-0)  ↔
NOTRE DAME (9-1)  ↑ 1
OKLAHOMA (9-1)  ↑ 5
MICHIGAN STATE (9-1)  ↑ 2
FLORIDA (9-1)  ↑ 4
TCU (9-1)  ↑ 5
ALABAMA (9-1)  ↑ 5
NORTH CAROLINA (9-1)  ↑ 5
TOLEDO (8-1)  ↑ 5
NAVY (8-1)  ↑ 6
BAYLOR (8-1)  ↓ 9
MARSHALL (9-2)  ↑ 7
WESTERN KENTUCKY (8-2)  ↑ 4
BOWLING GREEN (8-2)  ↑ 6
TEMPLE (8-2)  ↓11
UTAH (8-2)  ↓11
MICHIGAN (8-2)  ↑ 5
STANFORD (8-2)  ↓11
WISCONSIN (8-2)  ↓1
MEMPHIS (8-2)  ↓10
APPALACHIAN STATE (8-2)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
NORTHWESTERN (8-2)  ↑
FLORIDA STATE (8-2)  ↑
GEORGIA SOUTHERN (7-2)  ↑
LSU (7-2)  ↓
USC (7-3)  ↑

With the “down the stretch” weeks of college football remaining, the excitement and importance of each final game becomes increasingly important with $50 Million dollars on the table. Who will survive and advance.

To the sports media, If you use any of my postings for your own in comments within your publishings or articles or posts, this includes use of radio and television broadcast’ please use the APA/MLA format and cite the the source.

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here or through twitter at     cfbpoexpert.com


The Plot Thickens with 3-Weeks Remaining


As we head out of turn four of the college football season, the plot thickens. The group of 0-loss programs has been just about cut in half from eleven (11) to  six (6) in a mere week. LSU, Memphis, Michigan State, TCU and Toledo fall from the 0-loss ranks.  I told you the last four (4) weeks of the college football season gets interesting. I think the CFP committee forgot how the last (4) weeks of college football gets more complex as we head down the stretch. With the various rankings that are published, the sports fans and media are only interested in the one ranking system, that being the CFP poll. It seems that the CFP committee made their first rankings and parts of the sports world in college football and the media were all up in arms with how they ranked the FBS teams one (1) through twenty-five (25) in their first rankings.

With LSU losing this past Saturday to Alabama, that leaves the SEC with ZERO 0-loss programs left. Wonder how the CFP committee will select an SEC team into the 4-team playoff if there are four (4) 0-loss FBS teams left at the end of the season? Ranking FBS college football teams week to week is not as easy as everybody thinks. There are many categorical variables you have to look at before you rank teams and rank fairly. You must put aside your favorites and look at the facts and evidence before you rank. As we all witnessed this past Saturday, there were MANY great games played and still many GREAT GAMES to be played.  Those great games caused and will cause all the rankings to change with many postion changes this week and in the weeks to come.

As for my weekly rankings, each week is more interesting than the last. The rankings change week to week dependant on which group you look at. If I were to compare my rankings to the ones the media posts on the web or news print weekly, mine are different each week. The ones in the print news or websites have more Zero or NO position changes, becuase the voters do not want to change the rank unless they must. Now to my weekly rankings.

Ohio State survives and stays atop in both my polls, the PMT and PMT+. As for the remaining spots after that, all the losses by the 0-loss programs caused a change throughout the rankings. Clemson, Iowa and Oklahoma State follow the BIG 10, chasing after them. Clemson beats Florida State, Iowa sneaks by Indiana and Oklahoma State puts to rest TCU. Houston remains the lone 0-loss FBS program from the Group of 5 and hoping to remain a 0-loss program. With three (3) to four (4) weeks left, depending on the conference, there is still some great college football to watch, games to root for upsets and games to see how the last play ends the game.

Group 1 PMT

OHIO STATE (9-0)  ↔
CLEMSON (9-0)  ↑ 2
IOWA (9-0)  ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA STATE (9-0)  ↑ 2
HOUSTON (9-0)  ↑ 2
BAYLOR (8-0)  ↑ 5
NOTRE DAME (8-1)  ↑ 6
TEMPLE (8-1)  ↑ 6
UTAH (8-1)  ↑ 6
MICHIGAN STATE (8-1)  ↓ 8
STANFORD (8-1)  ↑ 5
OKLAHOMA (8-1)  ↑ 5
FLORIDA (8-1)  ↑ 5
MEMPHIS (8-1)  ↓11
TCU (8-1)  ↓ 9
ALABAMA (8-1)  ↑ 5
NORTH CAROLINA (8-1)  ↑ 5
TOLEDO (7-1)  ↓ 9
LSU (7-1)  ↓ 9
NAVY (7-1)  ↑ 3
WESTERN KENTUCKY (8-2)  ↑ 3
WISCONSIN (8-2)  ↑ 4
MARSHALL (8-2)  ↓11
BOWLING GREEN (7-2)  ↑ 2
UCLA (7-2)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
MICHIGAN (7-2)  ↑
BYU (7-2)  ↑
APPALACHIAN STATE (7-2)  ↓
BOISE STATE (7-2)  ↔
NORTHWESTERN (7-2)  ↑

Group 2 PMT+

OHIO STATE (9-0)  ↑ 1
CLEMSON (9-0)  ↑ 1
IOWA (9-0)  ↑ 1
OKLAHOMA STATE (9-0)  ↑ 3
HOUSTON (9-0)  ↑ 3
BAYLOR (9-0)  ↑ 5
NOTRE DAME (8-1)  ↑ 6
FLORIDA (8-1)  ↑ 6
MICHIGAN STATE (8-1)  ↓ 8
UTAH (8-1)  ↑ 5
STANFORD (8-1)  ↑ 5
OKLAHOMA (8-1)  ↑ 6
TEMPLE (8-1)  ↑ 4
ALABAMA (8-1)  ↑ 5
MEMPHIS (8-1)  ↓ 10
TCU (8-1)  ↓ 10
NORTH CAROLINA (8-1)  ↑ 5
NAVY (7-1)  ↑ 5
LSU (7-1)  ↓9
TOLEDO (7-1)  ↓11
WISCONSIN (8-2)  ↑ 5
WESTERN KENTUCKY (8-2)  ↑ 3
MARSHALL (8-2)  ↓11
MICHIGAN (7-2)  ↑ 2
UCLA (7-2)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
BOWLING GREEN (7-2)  ↑
NORTHWESTERN (7-2)  ↑
MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-2)  ↑
BYU (7-2)  ↑
FLORIDA STATE (7-2)  ↑

Each Tuesday during the college football season, I will post my CFP rankings and how the committee will rank each week.

If you read my postings and use any information from it, please remember to use APA/MLA format and cite your sources.

If you have any comments or questions, please do not hesitate to ask or contact me on twittrer at    cfbpoexpert

 


Last 4-weeks, Excitement, Upsets and Surprises


The college football season is now heading into the clubhouse turn and there are still MANY great scheduled games to be played to determine who will be bowl eligible, playoff bound and entered into my mock field of (16) college football playoff format. At the top of my weekly rankings nothing has changed, Ohio State and Michigan State are split at Number 1 and Number 2 atop the PMT and PMT+ polls. There was some shuffleing among the other (23) ranked FBS teams. Both had bye weeks this past Saturday as they head into the final (4) game run to end the college football season at the end of November. There are probably still 50+ great games scheduled that are going to determine who’s in and who’s out of the playoffs.

The American Athletic Conference (AAC) has been playing very competitive college football and are not receiving any credibility from the sports media except for the small interests showing. And when the AAC teams lose or fall from the 0-loss rankings, the media loses interests or comments with the “I told you so” comments. Temple (7-1) fell from the 0-loss list after losing in the last 2-minutes to Notre Dame 24-20. Houston (8-0) slaps the Schedule Easy Conference around by shutting out the “great” SEC and Vanderbilt 34-0, to remain in that 0- loss group. Memphis (8-0) starts slow versus Tulane (2-6) but finishes strong to show they belong in the CFP talk. Finally, Navy (6-1) increases thier chances to stay in the 1-loss group. If I recall is not the AAC (2-1) versus the Schedule Easy Conference (SEC) and should be by all rights be (3-0) versus the SEC. Wins versus a pre-season ranked Mississippi, a dominating win versus Vanderbilt, Missouri stuggled to win verses Connecticut by kicking the winning field goal at the end of the game and an added note of Toledo (7-0) going into Arkansas and winning. The fans and Schedule Easy Conference media, staff and coaches say “top to bottom” the SEC can beat anyone and anytime. What’s it like to eat crow? The AAC and Group of 5 FBS members belongs in the discussion of the CFP committee and one of those 4-spots.

What the main stream media fails to understand is their are (128) FBS programs, (10) Conferences and (3) Independents competing for the (4) CFP positions but the CFP is only monitoring or selecting from the Power 5 FBS group. No matter what Memphis, Houston or Toledo do this season and remain a 0-loss program at the end, they will never get a “fair and just” opportunity to compete for the $50 Million dollar prize and the right to be called national champions in college football at the end of the season come January 2016. Listening to ESPN radio, or ESPN TV the media members on the air or behind the scenes have been brain washed that only the FBS programs from the Power 5 are “entitled” to compete for that prize. I would love the opportuinty to call into one or all of those ESPN radio or TV shows, ask multiple questions, serve and volley in an intellectual manner and watch thier heads explode with the knowledge and how well versed in this topic I am. Enough for now.. on to the rankings and numbers.

As of November 1; there are (41) FBS programs that are bowl eligible with upto (17) more possibly eligible in the next two weeks. There are now (11) 0-loss FBS members remaining, (11) 1-loss FBS members and (15) 2-loss FBS members. Intersting how the games play themselves out and that the media are only using “crystal ball” methods to impose thier “expertise” on the topic of college footbal of who’s in and who’s out. Another interesting statistic is there are (2) 0-win programs left; Kansas and Central Florida. Will they remove the (0) from the win column?

As of November 1, 2015 here are the (2) groups of standing of my PMT and PMT+ polls.

Group 1 PMT Rankings

OHIO STATE (8-0)  ↔
MICHIGAN STATE (8-0)  ↔
MEMPHIS (8-0) ↑ 2
CLEMSON (8-0) ↑ 3
IOWA (8-0) ↑ 3
TCU (8-0) ↑ 3
OKLAHOMA STATE (8-0) ↑ 4
HOUSTON (8-0) ↑ 4
TOLEDO (7-0) ↓ 4
LSU (7-0) ↓ 4
BAYLOR (7-0) ↓ 1
MARSHALL (8-1) ↑ 1
NOTRE DAME (7-1) ↑ 2
TEMPLE (7-1) ↓11
UTAH (7-1) ↑ 1
STANFORD (7-1) ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA (7-1)  ↔
FLORIDA (7-1) ↑ 1
APPALACHIAN STATE (7-1) ↑ 2
FLORIDA STATE (7-1) ↑ 3
ALABAMA (7-1) ↓ 7
NORTH CAROLINA (7-1) ↑ 2
NAVY (6-1) ↑ 3
WESTERN KENTUCKY (7-2) ↑ 2
PENN STATE (7-2) ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
WISCONSIN (7-2)
BOISE STATE (7-2)
MISSISSIPPI (7-2)
BOWLING GREEN (6-2)
MICHIGAN (6-2)

Group 2 PMT+ Rankings

MICHIGAN STATE (8-0)
OHIO STATE (8-0)
CLEMSON (8-0) ↑ 2
IOWA (8-0) ↑ 3
MEMPHIS (8-0) ↑ 3
TCU (8-0) ↑ 3
OKLAHOMA STATE (8-0) ↑ 4
HOUSTON (8-0) ↑ 4
TOLEDO (7-0) ↓ 5
LSU (7-0) ↓ 4
BAYLOR (7-0) ↓ 1
MARSHALL (8-1) ↑ 2
NOTRE DAME (7-1) ↑ 4
FLORIDA (7-1) ↑ 2
UTAH (7-1)
STANFORD (7-1) ↑ 2
TEMPLE (7-1)   ↓ 13
OKLAHOMA (7-1)
ALABAMA (7-1) ↓ 6
APPALACHIAN STATE (7-1) ↑ 1
FLORIDA STATE (7-1) ↑ 1
NORTH CAROLINA (7-1) ↑ 1
NAVY (6-1) ↑ 3
PENN STATE (7-2) ↑ 1
WESTERN KENTUCKY (7-2) ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
WISCONSIN (7-2)
MISSISSIPPI (7-2)
BOISE STATE (7-2)
MICHIGAN (6-2)
UCLA (6-2)

The college football season the next 4 weeks will be the most exciting part of the season, rivalries, great conference games and lots of upsets and programs you thought would be in the playoffs now out of the disussion.

If you have any questions or comments please leave a comment or follow me on twitter at       cfbpoexpert

 


Big 10 split the No.1 spots


With the college football season working itself towards the finsih line the Big 10 are still atop my polls with Ohio State No.1 the Professional Model Theory poll (PMT) and Michigan State No.1 in the Professional Model Theory (PMT+) poll plus one other categorical variable. The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) finally cracks the Top 5 of the PMT+ poll with a dominating win against Miami (Fla). Sandwiched betweened Michigan State and Clemson are; Ohio State, Toledo and Temple. In the PMT poll, Temple, Toledo and Memphis follow behind the Big 10. It seems that the AAC and MAC are keeping pace and climbing within both polls to keep pace with the Big 10. The true Test for No.3 Temple (7-0) will be this week versus Notre Dame (6-1).

The college football season has always been an exciting season once we arrive at the half-mile pole of college football. Georgia Tech beats Florida State on a special teams play on a blocked field goal attempt. It seems that at this point of the college football season, its always the un-predictable time of the year. What the experts predict on outcomes of this college football season are usually wrong, thats why they are the experts. I let the games play out before I make any assumptions on who should be ranked or considered for the playoffs, unless my intuition tells me something.  As of this current point in the college football season there are tweleve (12) 0-loss FBS teams, thirteen (13) 1-loss FBS teams and sixteen (16) 2-loss FBS teams. These groups will dwindle down, they always do. It’s what my research tells me.Of those (12) 0-loss teams 25% are from the Non-BCS or Non Power 5 Conference; Temple, Toledo, Memphis and Houston. In the coming weeks, the AAC members will soon be scheduled against each other. Of the (13) 1-loss teams; 2 are from that same group of Non-BCS or Non Power 5 conference members; Marshall and Appalachian State.

As the college football season progresses forward, the month of November is going to be the most entertaining month for college football, that’s always the un-predictable month. Not sure what to expect but to expect the best games of all to be played. We have 0-loss programs that were not expected to be there at this point of the season from the sports media, and are just now receiving small credit from the media. I wonder what will happen if the only 0-loss FBS team remaining is from one of the Non-Power 5 or Non-BCS Conferences. We know they will be left out of the so called “playoffs” from the very inexpereicned playoff committee. With $50 Million dollars on the playoff table the committee will ALWAYS favor the Power 5 or BCS conferneces and programs. We will watch how the remaining 5 weeks of college football plays out. The scheduled match ups we are wanting to see play, are arriving soon. Be prepared for some upsets and close games. And now to this weeks rankings.

The rankings seem to change on a weekly basis with teams moving up and moving down. What remains the same is that the Big 10 are still atop of both the PMT and PMT+ polls. What does remain the same is that the SEC has only (1) 0-loss team left and thats #6 LSU in both polls. Here are my FBS college football rankings based upon my research.

Group 1: Professional Model Thoery (PMT)

OHIO STATE (8-0)  ↔
MICHIGAN STATE (8-0)  ↔
TEMPLE (7-0)  ↑ 2
TOLEDO (7-0)  ↓ 1
MEMPHIS (7-0)  ↑ 3
LSU (7-0)  ↑ 3
CLEMSON (7-0)  ↑ 3
IOWA (7-0)  ↓ 2
TCU (7-0)  ↓ 2
BAYLOR (7-0)  ↑ 2
OKLAHOMA STATE (7-0)  ↑ 2
HOUSTON (7-0)  ↑ 2
MARSHALL (7-1)  ↑ 4
ALABAMA (7-1)  ↑ 5
NOTRE DAME (6-1)  ↑ 1
UTAH (6-1)  ↓12
OKLAHOMA (6-1)  ↑ 3
STANFORD (6-1)  ↑ 3
FLORIDA (6-1)  ↓ 1
PITTSBURGH (6-1)  ↑ 3
APPALACHIAN STATE (6-1)  ↑ 4
DUKE (6-1)  ↑ 1
FLORIDA STATE (6-1)  ↓12
NORTH CAROLINA (6-1)  ↑ 2
WESTERN KENTUCKY (6-2)  ↓10
NEXT FIVE
BOWLING GREEN (6-2)  ↑
PENN STATE (6-2)  ↑
WISCONSIN (6-2)  ↑
BYU (6-2)  ↑
BOISE STATE (6-2)  ↑

Group 2 Professional Model Theory Plus one Categorical Variable

MICHIGAN STATE (8-0)  ↑ 1
OHIO STATE (8-0)  ↓ 1
TOLEDO (7-0)  ↑ 2
TEMPLE (7-0)  ↔
CLEMSON (7-0)  ↑ 4
LSU (7-0)  ↑ 2
IOWA (7-0)  ↓ 1
MEMPHIS (7-0)  ↑ 2
TCU (7-0)  ↓ 2
BAYLOR (7-0)  ↑ 3
OKLAHOMA STATE (7-0)  ↑ 1
HOUSTON (7-0)  ↑ 2
ALABAMA (7-1)  ↑ 3
MARSHALL (7-1)  ↑ 5
UTAH (6-1)  ↓12
FLORIDA (6-1)  ↓ 1
NOTRE DAME (6-1)  ↔
OKLAHOMA (6-1)  ↑ 3
STANFORD (6-1)  ↑ 1
PITTSBURGH (6-1)  ↑ 4
APPALACHIAN STATE (6-1)  ↑ 4
FLORIDA STATE (6-1)  ↓11
NORTH CAROLINA (6-1)  ↑ 3
DUKE (6-1)  ↑ 2
PENN STATE (6-2)  ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
WISCONSIN (6-2)  ↑
WESTERN KENTUCKY (6-2)  ↓
BOWLING GREEN (6-2)  ↔
NORTHWESTERN (6-2)  ↑
MISSISSIPPI STATE (6-2)  ↑

If you have any questions or comments about my rankings, please feel free to send comments to me and follow me on twitter  @cfbpoexpert