Ohio State remains No.1


It’s mid-October and we are about at the half-mile pole for college football with the cream slowly rising to the top, others gaining ground and some slipping into the pack. Of the field of (128) FBS programs, there are NO Secretariat’s in this group. Ohio State remains number 1 in both of my polls. Michigan State is a close second but actually stole a victory to stay at (7-0) and with pace with Ohio State. The Big 10 has established thier dominance this year but that can change as we head into the last half of the college football season. Utah, Temple and Toledo all exchange places as they settle in behind the leaders in the third through fifth positions.

The college football season has had many great games and non-historic FBS programs earning success this season, but not receiving the media credit coverage from print, radio and televised media that they deserve. Congratulations to Memphis at (6-0) from the American Athletic Conference(AAC), a Non Power 5 or Non BCS conference member.  Memphis started out being ranked in my polls at 10th and 11th, then 8th and 11th, last week 10th and 12th and this week 8th and 10th. Memphis has been consistant all season long, but no real mention in the media until now.

Yesterday, Memphis earns a program and conferene credibilty win against SEC member Mississippi. If I recall, was not Mississippi now (4-2), ranked in the top 10 in the preseason polls by the so-called experts and sports media.The only credit Mississippi has to thier credit is the win against Alabama. And NOW ESPN’s Mike and Mike and other college football shows in the sports media in print, radio and television are now showing slight interest. Seems that Memphis deserves more credit that what the media are offering. This also includes Toledo, Temple, Navy, Houston and Utah; they too deserve more media coverage. Oh wait, Toledo, Memphis, Houston, Navy and Temple are not Power 5 Conference members and are left on the back burner. Interesting that they pay the same NCAA and conference membership fees like the Power 5 conferences, compete on the same field of play as them but have to wait to receive media credibilty. That’s like the Kansas City Royals who have won the AL Central and hoping to play in thier second consecutive World Series. Interesting analogy is that the New York Yankees make the most money for MLB but finsihed behind Kansas City this season. Guess who is playing for the possibility to play in the World Series, not the Yankess. The Royals players and coaches EARNED that spot these past two seasons, not given to them. Maybe the sports media should immediately recognize when non-primary or Non-Power 5 FBS college programs are doing better than thier crystal ball expectations and predictions from the media and give them thier just due credit.

And now to this weeks rankings. There have been a few changes with FBS teams moving up, some moving down. As of the half mile pole of the FBS college football season there are (14) 0-loss and (15) 1-loss programs left in FBS colege football. From the 0-loss group; (12) are from the BCS/Power 5 Conferences and (4) are from the Non-BCS/Non-Power 5 conferences. Those (4) are Houston, Memphis and Temple all from the American Athletic Conference(AAC) and Toledo from the Mid-Amercian Conference(MAC). We know that only (1) from the AAC could emerge as the only 0-loss FBS program and still no media coverage. Below are the current rankings based upon my research and assessment on how college football should be ranked; not by popularity, confernece affiliation labels by the sports media mean nothing to me or which FBS progam generates the most revenue dollars is a non factor. Finally, congratulation to Appalachian State from the Sun Belt Conference (SBC) for cracking my Top 25. I hope they continue their success and end up at (11-1). We shall see.

Group 1 Rankings: Professional Model Theory

OHIO STATE (7-0)
MICHIGAN STATE (7-0)
TOLEDO (6-0) ↑ 3
UTAH (6-0) ↑ 1
TEMPLE (6-0) ↓ 2
IOWA (7-0) ↑ 1
TCU (7-0) ↑ 1
MEMPHIS (6-0) ↑ 2
LSU (6-0) ↑ 5
CLEMSON (6-0) ↑ 2
FLORIDA STATE (6-0) ↑ 4
BAYLOR (6-0) ↓ 1
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0) ↓ 4
HOUSTON (6-0) ↑ 2
WESTERN KENTUCKY (6-1) ↑ 2
NOTRE DAME (6-1) ↑ 3
MARSHALL (6-1) ↑ 6
FLORIDA (6-1) ↓ 15
ALABAMA (6-1) ↑ 9
OKLAHOMA (5-1) ↑ 7
STANFORD (5-1) ↑ 6
CALIFORNIA (5-1) ↑ 3
PITTSBURGH (5-1) ↑ 2
DUKE (5-1) ↓ 2
APPALACHIAN STATE (5-1) ↑ 1

Group 2: Professional Model Theory, plus one more categorical varaible

OHIO STATE (7-0)
MICHIGAN STATE (7-0)
UTAH (6-0) ↑ 1
TEMPLE (6-0) ↑ 1
TOLEDO (6-0) ↑ 1
IOWA (7-0) ↑ 1
TCU (7-0) ↑ 1
LSU (6-0) ↑ 5
CLEMSON (6-0) ↑ 1
MEMPHIS (6-0) ↑ 2
FLORIDA STATE (6-0) ↑ 3
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0) ↓ 3
BAYLOR (6-0) ↑ 3
HOUSTON (6-0) ↑ 1
FLORIDA (6-1) ↓ 12
ALABAMA (6-1) ↑ 11
NOTRE DAME (6-1) ↑ 2
WESTERN KENTUCKY (6-1) ↑ 2
MARSHALL (6-1) ↑ 6
STANFORD (5-1) ↑ 7
OKLAHOMA (5-1) ↑ 6
CALIFORNIA (5-1)
TEXAS A&M (5-1) ↓ 12
PITTSBURGH (5-1) ↑ 2
APPALACHIAN STATE (5-1) ↑ 1

The remaining last half mile of this college football season is going to get very interesting with upsets, great games. close games and a wire finish in the last 2-weeks of the season. Some that are ranked in my Top 25, are more than likely not going to be there in the last poll.

If there was a 16-team playoff format based upon my research findings and my book; the group of (29) FBS programs with 0-losses and 1-losses are 100% guarenteed a spot in the field of 16 when the final season completes itself. That means at the end of the FBS season, any 0-loss or 1-loss FBS program are guaranteed a spot in my field of 16. The group of (22) FBS programs with 2-losses have an 83% chance of making the field of 16. We shall see how the last half mile plays out.

If you have any questions or comments about my rankings, please feel free to send comments to me and follow me on twitter  @cfbpoexpert


Ohio State Remains No. 1 Michigan State and Florida change spots


Week three (3) of my college football polls have been interesting to compute, analyze and watch the many changes in positions occur as I collect the numerous amounts of data. Not much has really changed in the top spot of both of my two (2) polls. Ohio State (6-0) still remains as the number one (1) college football program in both polls. The next two (2) spots changed from the previous week with Michigan State and Florida battling it out for the ranking of 2nd and 3rd. In addition to Temple and Utah holding on to the 4th and 5th spots in Group 1. In the Group 2 rankings Michigan State and Florida change spots as well as Temple and Utah. There are many newly ranked FBS teams which I knew would make the rankings once the season started to get deeper into the college football season. As you read through my Top 25 rankings there have been some position changes both up and down.

As of this week in the 2015 college football season we are now down to (16) 0-loss programs and (20) 1-loss programs. This is due to the fact that the college football season is heading into conference play and conference play gets very competitive for all conferences, not just the Power 5 or BCS conferences. What my rankings offer is that all 128 FBS programs have an EQUAL opportunity to be ranked, not just the Power 5 or BCS conferences and schools.

This weeks rankings have every conference representation all except the Sun Belt Conference (SBC). The closests SBC member is Appalachian State at (4-1), which is in its second season as an FBS member and ranked number 32 out of 128. They have an outside chance to make my Top 25 and possibly make my field of 16 if they remain as a 1-loss FBS team. Here are my week six (6) college football Top 25 rankings in both groups. Group 1 is based upon the professional model theory and Group 2 is the professional model theory plus one additional categorical variable.

Group 1

OHIO STATE (6-0)
MICHIGAN STATE (6-0)
FLORIDA (6-0)
TEMPLE (5-0)
UTAH (5-0)
TOLEDO (5-0) ↑ 1
IOWA (6-0) ↑ 4
TCU (6-0) ↑ 4
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0) ↑ 5
MEMPHIS (5-0) ↓ 2
BAYLOR (5-0) ↑ 9
CLEMSON (5-0) ↑ 3
TEXAS A&M (5-0) ↓ 3
LSU (5-0) ↑ 2
FLORIDA STATE (5-0) ↑ 3
HOUSTON (5-0) ↑ 3
WESTERN KENTUCKY (5-1) ↑ 4
NOTRE DAME (5-1) ↑ 5
MICHIGAN (5-1) ↑ 6
PENN STATE (5-1) ↑ 7
OHIO (5-1) ↑ 8
DUKE (5-1) ↑ 9
MARSHALL (5-1) ↑ 10
BOISE STATE (5-1) ↑ 11
CALIFORNIA (5-1) ↑ 12
NEXT FIVE
NORTHWESTERN (5-1)
MISSISSIPPI (5-1)
ALABAMA (4-1)
UCLA (4-1)
OKLAHOMA (4-1)

Group 2

OHIO STATE (6-0)
MICHIGAN STATE (6-0) ↑ 1
FLORIDA (6-0) ↓ 1
UTAH (5-0) ↑ 1
TEMPLE (5-0) ↓ 1
TOLEDO (5-0) ↑ 1
IOWA (6-0) ↑ 3
TCU (6-0) ↑ 4
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0) ↑ 5
CLEMSON (5-0) ↑ 5
TEXAS A&M (5-0) ↓ 2
MEMPHIS (5-0) ↓ 1
LSU (5-0) ↑ 3
FLORIDA STATE (5-0) ↑ 4
HOUSTON (5-0) ↑ 4
BAYLOR (5-0) ↑ 4
MICHIGAN (5-1) ↑ 9
PENN STATE (5-1) ↑ 8
NOTRE DAME (5-1) ↑ 7
WESTERN KENTUCKY (5-1) ↑ 6
NORTHWESTERN (5-1) ↓ 11
CALIFORNIA (5-1) ↓ 4
OHIO (5-1) ↑ 3
DUKE (5-1) ↑ 2
MARSHALL (5-1) ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
BOISE STATE (5-1)
MISSISSIPPI (5-1)
ALABAMA (5-1)
UCLA (4-1)
OKLAHOMA (4-1)

I look forward to observing and anayizing how the remaining weeks of college football at the FBS season plays out. You might be surprized at how I believe the outcome will turn out.

As for an FBS statistical analysis of the FCS scheudling. As of the completion of week six (6) of the FBS season here are the results:

FBS programs are (90-9)  this 2015 FBS season with a win-loss percentage rate of (.909). Of those 90 wins by the FBS programs 74 have been won by 3 or more possessions. The FBS has outscored the FCS programs by a combined total number of 3041 points. The winning margin of victory by the FBS programs over the FCSprograms is consistent with and supprts my research by more than 4+ possessions at 30.7 points per game. The FBS programs are scoring on average 45.2 points per game, while the FCS programs are scoring on average of 14.5 points per game. There are 7 FBS/FCS scheduled games left in the 2015 FBS season; 4 for the SEC, 2 for the Independents and 1 for the ACC. Lets see how much further the statistical analysis gaps change and grow for the FBS programs between the FCs programs.

If you have any questions or comments about my rankings, please feel free to send comments to me  and follow me on twitter  @cfbpoexpert


CFB Top 25 Rankings.. Changes and Scares


Week 5 of college football produced some changes, surprises, and FBS programs that the sports media experts probably did not know would still be part of the 0-loss group. The Clemson/Notre Dame, Michigan State/Purdue and Ohio State/Indiana were great games and even close to being upsets.There are other great games that were played on college football Saturday.These just came to mind as I was preparing this post.

As of this week in CFB we currently have (20) 0-loss programs and (26) 1-loss programs. Next week we should see a 1-loss FBS program(s) reach my Top 25. As the CFB season progresses the rankings will start to almost look identical with some position differneces which are closely related to one another based upon the data and analysis used to determine the rankings. This means qauntifiable data and the professional model theory offer a true validity to reality in ranking CFB FBS programs. The human subjective polls and the (5) computer models are easily manipulated and lck quantifiable variables that were either left out of the mathematical equation on purpose or failed to think of those negative variables.

I did receive some feedback of both positive and negative on my first rankings. I thank you for the comments. I have made some slight changes in how the rankings will be posted, since many of you view web pages via your cell phone. However, this page is best viewed on your laptop or desktop screen.

How to review the rankings of both groups. FBS teams will be listed left (1) through (25), current overall record and postion difference from the previous week in which I ranked the FBS programs (1) through (25). The Next Five group are the FBS programs just out of the Top 25. Group 1 are my rankings based upon the professional model theory and Group 2 are ranked using the professional model theory, plus one more quantifiable variable.

Group 1

OHIO STATE (5-0) ↑ 1
MICHIGAN STATE (5-0) ↑ 3
FLORIDA (5-0) ↑ 3
TEMPLE (4-0) ↑ 3
UTAH (4-0) ↓1
OKLAHOMA (4-0) ↑ 2
TOLEDO (4-0) ↑ 2
MEMPHIS (5-0) ↑ 2
NORTHWESTERN (5-0) ↑3
TEXAS A&M (5-0) ↑ 5
IOWA (5-0) ↑ 7
TCU (5-0) ↑ 2
CALIFORNIA (5-0) ↑ 6
OKLAHOMA STATE (5-0) ↑ 6
CLEMSON (4-0) ↑ 6
LSU (4-0) ↑ 5
NAVY (4-0) ↑ 4
FLORIDA STATE (4-0) ↑ 3
HOUSTON (4-0) ↑ 2
BAYLOR (4-0) ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
WESTERN KENTUCKY (4-1)
NOTRE DAME (4-1)
STANFORD (4-1)
UCLA (4-1)
MICHIGAN (4-1)

Group 2

OHIO STATE (5-0) ↑ 2
FLORIDA (5-0)
MICHIGAN STATE (5-0) ↑ 2
TEMPLE (4-0) ↑ 5
UTAH (4-0) ↓ 4
OKLAHOMA (4-0) ↑ 1
TOLEDO (4-0) ↑ 2
NORTHWESTERN (5-0) ↑ 2
TEXAS A&M (5-0) ↑ 6
IOWA (5-0) ↑ 8
MEMPHIS (5-0)
TCU (5-0) ↑ 2
CALIFORNIA (5-0) ↑ 6
OKLAHOMA STATE (5-0) ↑ 6
CLEMSON (4-0) ↑ 6
LSU (4-0) ↑ 5
NAVY (4-0) ↑ 4
FLORIDA STATE (4-0) ↑ 3
HOUSTON (4-0) ↑ 2
BAYLOR (4-0) ↑ 1
NEXT FIVE
WESTERN KENTUCKY (4-1)
NOTRE DAME (4-1)
MICHIGAN (4-1)
STANFORD (4-1)
UCLA (4-1)

As the CFB season progresses, the overall records will become more equal based upon total number of games played. From this group of 46, which will dwindle down to a group of 16 and will make up my playoff field of 16. Its too early to tell who will make the group of 16, let alone how the experts can verbalize who are the 4-teams in the College Football Playoff. I do not have a crystal ball like the sports media experts.

These rankings possess no bias or favortism towards any of the (128) FBS programs that compete in college football at the NCAA level. These ranking are researched based and quantifiable categorical variable related. Please offer any and all feedback to me in which group you like most based upon what you see through this website or send me comment on twitter.

Do share these rankings with your college football fans, friends and any sports media members you may know. I will post these rankings every week and now will make every effort to publish ra these rankings by 12 Noon on the following Sunday after college football Saturday.

Follow me on Twitter at      cfbpoexpert

 


College Football FBS Top 25 Rankings


The college football season is now 4-weeks into the 2015 FBS NCAA season and now its time for a true and more accurate Top 25 rankings. From this point of the season until the last regular season games, I will post two (2) Top 25 rankings with the next five (5) ranked. These Top 25 rankings are based upon criteria based research in which the rankings should be competed. The rankings should not based upon conference affiliation, which coach is voting for whom and no manipulation of the ranking to keep specific FBS programs out of a ranke spot or give more credit than due to other FBS programs. To me the rankings are earned by the players and coaches on the field in relationship to the criteria I have developed. The current Amway USA Today College Football Top 25 are all opinion based and lack no true validity to the rankings. Ranking Group 1 is based upon the professional model thoery. Ranking Group 2 is based the professional model theory and other data.

The FBS season is only 4 weeks old these rankings will significantly change over remainder of the collefe football season. As of this date, FBS level of college football possesses (29) 0-loss programs and (27) 1-loss programs, From this group of (56) will come my field of 16. Here are my Top 25 rankings for this college football season.

Group 1

NOTRE DAME                                (4-0)
OHIO STATE                                 (4-0)
UCLA                                             (4-0)
UTAH                                             (4-0)
MICHIGAN STATE                          (4-0)
FLORIDA                                       (4-0)
TEMPLE                                         (3-0)
OKLAHOMA                                    (3-0)
TOLEDO                                         (3-0)
MEMPHIS                                       (4-0)
NORTH CAROLINA STATE             (4-0)
NORTHWESTERN                          (4-0)
INDIANA                                         (4-0)
TCU                                               (4-0)
TEXAS A&M                                   (4-0)
MISSISSIPPI                                 (4-0)
GEORGIA                                     (4-0)
IOWA                                            (4-0)
CALIFORNIA                                 (4-0)
OKLAHOMA STATE                       (4-0)
NEXT FIVE
MIAMI (FLA)                                 (3-0)
LSU                                              (3-0)
BAYLOR                                       (3-0)
FLORIDA STATE                          (3-0)
NAVY                                           (3-0)

Group 2

UTAH                                          (4-0)
FLORIDA                                     (4-0)
OHIO STATE                               (4-0)
UCLA                                           (4-0)
MICHIGAN STATE                       (4-0)
NOTRE DAME                             (4-0)
OKLAHOMA                                 (3-0)
TEMPLE                                      (3-0)
TOLEDO                                      (3-0)
NORTHWESTERN                        (4-0)
MEMPHIS                                   (4-0)
NORTH CAROLINA STATE          (4-0)
INDIANA                                     (4-0)
TCU                                           (4-0)
TEXAS A&M                                (4-0)
MISSISSIPPI                              (4-0)
GEORGIA                                   (4-0)
IOWA                                          (4-0)
CALIFORNIA                               (4-0)
OKLAHOMA STATE                    (4-0)
NEXT FIVE
LSU                                           (3-0)
BAYLOR                                    (3-0)
WEST VIRGINIA                        (3-0)
NAVY                                        (3-0)
FLORIDA STATE                      (3-0)

These rankings possess no bias or favortism towards any of the (128) FBS programs that compete in college football at that level. These ranking are researched based and quantifiable categorical variable related. Please offer any and all feedback to me in which group you like most based upon what you see through this website or send me comment on twitter.

Do share these rankings with your college football fans, friends and any sports media members you may know. I will post these rankings every week and now will make sure that the rankings are out by 12 Noon on the following Sunday after college football Saturday.

Follow me on Twitter at      cfbpoexpert