I do believe I have the CFP committee figured out this time. Honest. Last week I was 96% correct in selecting the field of 25, missing out in USC and Oregeon. I was only correct on four (4) placement accuracies that only 16% for the accuracy rating and ten (10) we will call near misses. A near miss would be defined as having selected the right FBS team in the rankings or in the field but missing their accurate ranking by one placement. That makes my near miss accuracy rate then at 40%. It seems that I can select the same group as the CFP committee, but we have different criteria to rank the FBS programs in order when they win or lose.
I know the CFP committee has a tough job in this process with teams they thought would win but lose, and teams that are predicted to win by large amounts only win by one (1) possession or escape in overtime. With that said, this past week seven (7) FBS teams ranked in the CFP poll lost; Houston, LSU, Memphis, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, USC, Utah and Wisconsin. What this means is my research on rnking systems and experience comes into play here. What my intution and research tells me is that LSU, Memphis, USC and Wisconsin WILL drop from the CFP rankings. The other FBS programs that lost Ohio State and Oklahoma State will or should remain in the Top 10 or even the top 12. Utah will drop to the 20th ranking position, with Houston and TCU, they might hang on to stay in the last 2 spots of the CFP rankings.
With so many ranked FBS teams losing, I do believe that the CFP committee fails to recognize all the FBS members who are having great seasons this year. However, the CFP committee only reviews those FBS programs from the Power 5 or the BCS conferences before ranking any of the Group of 5 or Non BCS programs when needing to complete the bottom half of the Top 25 rankings. For example from the Conference USA there are Marshall and Western Kentucky who are both (9-2) along with Louisana Tech and Southern Mississippi both at (8-3). From the Sun Belt Conference there is FCS newcomber to the FBS level Appalachian State at (8-2). From the Mountain West Conference there are Air Force and San Diego State both at (8-3). From the Mid American Conference Northern Illinois and Bowling Green both at (8-3). And finally BYU who is Independent at (8-3). This excludes the American Athletic Conference, since they have had a great season and representation already. That’s ten (10) Group of 5 FBS members how are not receiving an sniff from the CFP committee to at least rank them. However, the CFP committee must rank Power 5 FBS programs first if they are (8-3) or (9-2) over any Group of 5 FBS menber. That in itself is an un-written rule that the CFP committee or sports media wont mention. I will expand on this later and have expaned on it my book that will be re-released next year.
Now to my weekly CFP committee projections or predictions. Remember this is a prediction on how I believe that the very in-experienced CFP committee will rank the FBS programs one (1) through twenty-five (25) weekly.
CFP Projections in Rank Order:
| CLEMSON | (11-0) |
| ALABAMA | (10-1) |
| NOTRE DAME | (10-1) |
| IOWA | (11-0) |
| OKLAHOMA | (10-1) |
| MICHIGAN STATE | (10-1) |
| FLORIDA | (10-1) |
| BAYLOR | (10-1) |
| OHIO STATE | (10-1) |
| OKLAHOMA STATE | (10-1) |
| STANFORD | (9-2) |
| MICHIGAN | (9-2) |
| FLORIDA STATE | (9-2) |
| NORTH CAROLINA | (10-1) |
| NAVY | (9-1) |
| NORTHWESTERN | (9-2) |
| MISSISSIPPI | (8-3) |
| UTAH | (8-3) |
| OREGON | (8-3) |
| TOLEDO | (9-1) |
| MISSISSIPPI STATE | (8-3) |
| UCLA | (8-3) |
| PITTSBURGH | (8-3) |
| HOUSTON | (10-1) |
| TCU | (9-2) |
With one more true and final week of the college football season to go, this final week is going to be intense and amazing. There are scenarios I am rooting for this week. Those being Alabama losing to Auburn and Florida losing to Florida State. I am also rooting for all other FBS programs to win the games they need to, to stay above the SEC. Those loses by Alabama and Florida would mean that every SEC team would have two(2) losses or more and puts the committee in un-familiar territory. How do we have a playoff without an SEC team representing? That wil be the true test of the CFP committee and if they do select a two (2) loss SEC team for the playoffs, then there will be screaming shouting and lawsuits. WE shall see how this turns out.
Follow me on twitter at cfbpoexpert