The Final Poll Rankings Say Alabama #1 and WMU #2


The final poll prior to the release of my “mock” field of 16 team playoff format shows that (12-0) Alabama remains #1 and (12-0) Western Michigan remains #2. This does not indcate that this how they will be seeded in my field of 16. During my review of the “mock” field of 16 teams for my expanded playoff format, 5 have been officially seeded, with 11 spots remaining to seed. With one OFFICIAL week of college football left with conference championship games and scheduled games in the BIG 12 and Sun Belt Conference, there could be some changes within my field of 16 with games remaining and FBS programs who are in the clubhouse at (9-3) could sneak in to my field of 16.

Scheduled games of importance are; Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State, Navy vs. Army, West Virginia vs. Baylor, Troy vs. Georgia Southern, and a few more. An Oklahoma State win vs. Oklahoma could put (9-3) USC in my mock 16 team playoff seedings, as they are just on the outside looking in for my field of 16. Both South Alabama and Louisiana-Lafayette couls still earn bowl eligibility if they win this Saturday to earn their 6th win. Both of those wins would make a total of bowl eligible programs at 78, with 11 to 13 FBS programs with (5-7) records to be reviewed for any open bowl slots to be filled.

There was some minor changes in this weeks polls with ranked programs from last weeks rankings. Within my weekly rankings this week, there are 5 Big 10 programs and 1 SEC program ranked. This tells me that the best FBS conference this season belongs to the Big 10 this season. When you read the rankings , please be aware of the extra data points in how they are used to make an assessment. Not a subjective assessment, but a quantitative assessment to assist in ranking and seeding. And now for this weeks rankings.

RANK CONF TEAM RECORD OPP W/L OPP % CONF W/L CONF %
1 SEC ALABAMA (12-0) (76-55) 0.580 (30-34) 0.469
2 MAC WESTERN MICHIGAN (12-0) (54-77) 0.412 (27-37) 0.422
3 B10 OHIO STATE (11-1) (84-59) 0.587 (41-40) 0.506
4 ACC CLEMSON (11-1) (79-52) 0.603 (33-31) 0.516
5 P12 WASHINGTON (11-1) (66-64) 0.508 (36-45) 0.444
6 B10 MICHIGAN (10-2) (81-64) 0.559 (39-42) 0.481
7 B10 WISCONSIN (10-2) (76-66) 0.535 (41-40) 0.506
8 B10 PENN STATE (10-2) (77-67) 0.535 (35-46) 0.432
9 MWC BOISE STATE (10-2) (74-70) 0.514 (32-32) 0.500
10 P12 COLORADO (10-2) (80-64) 0.556 (41-49) 0.456
11 AAC SOUTH FLORIDA (10-2) (65-66) 0.496 (29-35) 0.453
12 B12 OKLAHOMA (9-2) (67-60) 0.528 (27-41) 0.397
13 AAC NAVY (9-2) (64-56) 0.533 (29-35) 0.453
14 B12 WEST VIRGINIA (9-2) (58-58) 0.500 (33-35) 0.458
15 B12 OKLAHOMA STATE (9-2) (57-59) 0.491 (27-41) 0.397
16 SBC TROY (9-2) (54-60) 0.474 (24-26) 0.48
17 P12 USC (9-3) (78-66) 0.542 (37-44) 0.457
18 B10 NEBRASKA (9-3) (74-70) 0.514 (41-40) 0.506
19 P12 STANFORD (9-3) (72-71) 0.503 (41-40) 0.506
20 SBC APPLACHIAN STATE (9-3) (67-69) 0.493 (24-32) 0.429
21 ACC LOUISVILLE (9-3) (71-73) 0.493 (24-20) 0.375
22 ACC FLORIDA STATE (9-3) (84-47) 0.641 (34-30) 0.531
23 AAC HOUSTON (9-3) (68-61) 0.527 (28-36) 0.438
24 CUSA WESTERN KENTUCKY (9-3) (67-65) 0.508 (31-33) 0.484
25 MWC AIR FORCE (9-3) (65-65) 0.500 (31-33) 0.484

Next week, I will post my weekly rankings and the “mock” fictional 16 team playoff brackets in what could be in the future of college football.

Follow me on Twitter at cfbpoexpert

 

 


Alabama #1 in Rankings, but #2 In Mock 16 Team Playoff Rank


Alabama remains the #1 ranked FBS program in my weekly rankings, but is seeded #2 in my early MOCK/Fictional 16 Team Playoff Model. The Broncos from Western Michigan are ranked and seeeded opposite of Alabama at #2 and #1. The first order of business, is can both Alabama and Western Michigan remain the only 0-loss programs left standing after the 12regular season game schedule is complete? Research supports and states that on average there are (2.62) 0-loss programs per each FBS season. We have one week remaining in the FBS regular season. Alabama (11-0) hosts (8-3) Auburn, while (11-0) Western Michigan host (9-2) Toledo. Both games are not easy games to win as Alabama and Western Michigan look to stay un-defeated. We shall see which one of these two stay at 0-loss or who falls into the 1-loss group.

Weekly rankings and seeding criteria are different in relationship to how each assigned ranking and seeded number is applied to each FBS program. The playoff seeding rank is a quantifiable process based upon research and multiple quantifiable variables which are standardized and used for all FBS programs. This weeks Playoff (PO) seeded positions are not 100% accurate, but a quick look at where the seeding of the mock field of 16 would be seeded. Preliminary seedings indicates some great first round games. Looking quickly at the games we would possibly have are ; Alabama hosting Houston, Western Michigan hosting Oklahoma State, Boise State hosting South Florida, Ohio State hosting Colorado, Michigan hosting Nebraska, Clemson hosting Wisconsin, Washington hosting Louisville and Penn State hosting Oklahoma. I can guarentee you all of those games would be exciting and SOLD OUT.

Currently, 65 FBS programs are bowl eligible with another 18 FBS programs still eligible to become bowl eligible with 5-wins and 1 or 2 games remaining on the FBS season. If all 18 eligible FBS programs win their last games then, the total number of bowl eligible FBS programs would be at 83 and no need for any (5-7) program to be considered for any open bowl spots. The last week of college football will be entertaining to watch all weekend long, starting with 3 MAC games on Tuesday night and concluding with UMass and Hawaii on Saturday.

On to this weeks rankings:

RANK CONF TEAM RECORD OPP W/L OPP % CONF W/L CONF % PO SEED
1 SEC ALABAMA (11-0) (63-46) 0.578 (22-27) 0.449 2
2 MAC WESTERN MICHIGAN (11-0) (42-68) 0.382 (18-31) 0.367 1
3 B10 OHIO STATE (10-1) (67-54) 0.554 (28-34) 0.452 4
4 B10 MICHIGAN (10-1) (63-59) 0.516 (25-37) 0.403 5
5 MWC BOISE STATE (10-1) (58-63) 0.479 (25-26) 0.490 3
6 ACC CLEMSON (10-1) (67-42) 0.615 (30-29) 0.508 6
7 P12 WASHINGTON (10-1) (52-56) 0.481 (26-40) 0.394 7
8 B10 PENN STATE (9-2) (68-53) 0.562 (30-33) 0.476 8
9 B10 WISCONSIN (9-2) (64-56) 0.533 (33-31) 0.516 11
10 B12 OKLAHOMA (9-2) (62-55) 0.530 (23-37) 0.383 9
11 B10 NEBRASKA (9-2) (61-60) 0.504 (30-34) 0.469 12
12 ACC LOUISVILLE (9-2) (60-61) 0.496 (22-36) 0.379 10
13 P12 COLORADO (9-2) (67-54) 0.554 (34-41) 0.453 13
14 AAC HOUSTON (9-2) (57-51) 0.528 (20-29) 0.408 15
15 AAC SOUTH FLORIDA (9-2) (54-55) 0.495 (22-27) 0.449 14
16 B12 OKLAHOMA STATE (9-2) (52-54) 0.491 (23-37) 0.383 16
17 MWC SAN DIEGO STATE (9-2) (41-69) 0.373 (18-33) 0.353
18 SEC FLORIDA (8-2) (55-50) 0.524 (24-34) 0.414
19 AAC NAVY (8-2) (54-45) 0.545 (22-26) 0.458
20 B12 WEST VIRGINIA (8-2) (50-47) 0.515 (28-26) 0.519
21 SBC TROY (8-2) (48-47) 0.505 (22-16) 0.579
22 P12 USC (8-3) (68-53) 0.562 (33-40) 0.452
23 P12 STANFORD (8-3) (62-58) 0.517 (36-37) 0.493
24 SBC APPLACHIAN STATE (8-3) (59-58) 0.504 (19-26) 0.422
25 SEC TENNESSEEE (8-3) (72-37) 0.661 (29-24) 0.547

 

Key:

Record- Team Overall Win Loss Seasonal Record

OPP W/L Record- The Combined Overal W/L Record of ALL Scheduled FBS programs that you played to this point in the season.

OPP %- The W/L Percentage Rate of the combined OPP W/L Records.

CONF W/L Record- The Combined Overall W/L Record of Scheduled FBS Conference Opponents ONLY, already played to this poing in the season.

PO Seed- Current Mock Playoff Seeding in my ficticious 16-Team Playoff Format. This seed number is not accurate or solidified until the completion of the 12-Games FBS season is complete.

 

If you have any questions, please contact me via twitter @cfbpoexpert

 


College Football In the BCS Era, NOW Available!!!


Book Available: College Football In the BCS Era; The Untold Truth: Facts, Evidence and Solution by Matthew J. Siggelow

Book Price $35.00 on sale now for 20% off at $28.00. First 200 sold receives this discount!!!!!!!

A new book that examines college football at the FBS level in how they determine their national champion in the BCS system is now available. This research can also be applied to the new 4-team CFP system as well. I originally authored this liteary work in 2013. After a few months I re-exmained what I had published and wrote. The analytical wheels started spinning and I left out very important information and data that needed to be explained more clearly to the readers in this sports arena of college football, mainly the sports media. Three years later , I proofed the original work, updated Tables and then I added three (3) new chapters and one of them examines the Sherman Act.

Within this book, there are 19 Chapters that examines many variables and sub variables within college football and how they determine their National Champion. The book is 516 pages in length with Reference pages included. I used 30+ Peer Reviewed Journal articles which were subject specific to variables. I read 10 published literary works or books that were and are educationally authored by doctoral professors within the field of Athletic Administration and Sports Management. Additional readings included from authors who published books/literary works from the sports media who cover sports and college football. I examined over 25,000+ data points to assist in determining how to rank FBS programs based upon dependent and independent variables which affects the BCS and current CFP system used. There are over 100+ Tables of data to assist the reader in understanding the reality of college football and how subjectivity and the poll system is not a valid system in ranking FBS programs week to week. The tables and data inside the book are written in general mathematical notations, meaning percentages and numbers. I wanted the reader to understand the data and numbers and not get lost in F or P Values.

All of this data and reading allowed me to put to test my theory if whether college football at the FBS level can possess an expanded playoff format congruent with the bowl system, without eliminating any bowl games, and without extending the current season and making sure the playoff format did not interupt academic finals weeks. My research has determined that college football at the FBS level CAN possess an expanded playoff format with 16 teams. This research also proves that of the 16 FBS seeded programs, 12 spots would be secured by BCS/Power Five programs and 4 spots would be secured by Non-BCS/Group of Five Prorgams. All the Non-BCS/Group of Five programs want is the ability to participate for the National Championship, the $50 Million dollars thats at stake and the national accolades that comes with winning the FBS National Championship. With the the curren CFP and past BCS systems in use, the Non-BCS/Group of Five programs are not eligible and vehetmetly excluded to compete for the National Championship and the $50 Million dollars.

NO matter if Boise State, Western Michigan, Tulane or any of the other Group of Five programs that finish the season with 0-losses, they are not eligible to compete for the National Championship, and the $50 Million dollars at stake. My playoff format allows ALL FBS programs the ability to be selected and seeded in the field of 16 to earn the National Championship in college football at the FBS level of play. Within a chapter in my book there are mock/fictional playoff brackets that shows how the playoff format could work, how each FBS team was seeded and those FBS programs that just missed the cut. It’s not impossible to see this coming to fruition in the future. The media now is OK with the CFP 4-team playoff and with the current chaos within college football now, they want the playoff to be expanded to 8 and thinking 16. This research and literary work shows that an expanded playoff format can work, be successful and exponentially financially beneficial for college football at the FBS level of play.

Chapters titles in the book include but not limited too: Reason for Change, Eight Variables that Affected the BCS, Non-Conference Scheduling and the FCS, The Significance of Home Field Advantage, Analyzing the USA Today Coaches Poll, Reality versus Subjectivity, The Untold Truth about the SEC, Balanced Schedule: Possible or Impossible, The Sherman Act vs. NCAA and the Power Brokers and the Future Business Plan for the 16-Team Playoff.

Purchase your copy at Lulu.com or by clicking on the book in the upper right corner of my blog page which has a link attached to the image. The link takes you directly to the book page for purchase with a small review. Please leave a comment about the book once you have read it. This is a perfect book for your college football fan in your family, friends, educators in Athletic Administrators who can use this book for curriculum purposes in acadamia for thier students in Athletic Administration and Sports Management programs.

Follow me on Twitter at @cfbpoexpert

 


Alabama Still #1, With Upset Saturday


The Crimson Tide from Alabama at (10-0), one of two 0-loss programs remaining, retains the #1 ranking in my weekly poll. The other 0-loss program left standing are the Broncos from Western Michigan at (10-0). The main sports media in print from the USA Today and television from ESPN won’t recognize the feat in which the Broncos have amassed in remaining un-defeated like Alabama. The best way to interpret this type of media coverage from television and the print media is, Western Michigan is from that side of the tracks and they don’t play the same teams we do. We (the Power Five Conferences and Programs) are “entitled” to this type of coverage and are “MORE deserving” of the $50 Million dollars on the table, the accolades that come with that and are the only programs “allowed to” be called “National Champion” in college football in the CFP era, under the NCAA blue logo.

If Western Michigan stays un-beaten, 0-loss, or un-feated; then by all rights they should be part of the the CFP 4-team playoff, no matter what their conference affiliation is or classification that the NCAA/FBS group of power brokers and sports media classify them as. No FBS programs beat them, they would have won ALL thier games; so why leave them out. Does not CFP mean College Football Playoff, meaning all college FBS programs who compete. I believe that the CFP chairperson and Texas Tech Athletic Director Kirby Hocutt, need to re-examine and evaluate the protocol of the selection process for the CFP and $50 Million dollars on the table for winning the National Championship at the FBS level of play. All FBS programs should be eligible to be selected for the CFP 4-team playoff, unless they are on probation, and not the select group to earn and be called National Champions in college football.  The higher level of critical thinking to evaluate, rank and seed college football programs is tough enough but when committee members have vested interest, lack of knowledge or experience to select and seed; then you only punish those who are deserving to be part of the CFP 4-team playoff versus name brand program who should not be part of the process.

There were some credible wins by FBS programs that upset ranked FBS programs to earn thier bowl eligible status. Wins by; Eastern Michigan, Georgia, Iowa, Pittsburgh and yes Idaho earned their 6th win this past weekend, making them bowl eligible. Idaho might want to re-think their decision on returning to the FCS level of play after the 2017 FBS season. Congratulations to those programs for earning bowl eligibilty. As of to date, there are now 57 bowl eligible programs, 21 FBS programs with 5-wins and needing one more win to earn bowl eligibility; and 18 FBS programs with 4-wins with at least two chances or more to earn their 6th win on the season to become bowl eligible.

This weeks rankings has an additional category to it, and that is my fictional/mock 16-team playoff seeding number (PO SEED) if the college football season were to have ended last weekend and I were seeding and selecting the mock/fictional field of 16. The seed number you see now is not 100% accurate but close to accurate compared to the CFP 4-team playoff, since I “include” ALL FBS programs in my playoff format. Which 16 FBS programs will make the field of 16. This time next week, we could have part of the field entered, but not seeded.

And now for the rankings:

RANK CONF TEAM RECORD OPP W/L OPP % CONF W/L CONF % PO SEED
1 SEC ALABAMA (10-0) (57-41) 0.582 (20-23) 0.465 1
2 MAC WESTERN MICHIGAN (10-0) (38-53) 0.418 (14-23) 0.378 2
3 B10 OHIO STATE (9-1) (58-42) 0.580 (25-24) 0.510 3
4 B10 MICHIGAN (9-1) (53-48) 0.525 (20-29) 0.408 6
5 MWC BOISE STATE (9-1) (49-51) 0.490 (19-19) 0.500 4
6 ACC LOUISVILLE (9-1) (48-52) 0.480 (20-31) 0.392 5
7 ACC CLEMSON (9-1) (56-33) 0.629 (23-24) 0.489 7
8 P12 WASHINGTON (9-1) (43-47) 0.478 (20-31) 0.392 8
9 MWC SAN DIEGO STATE (9-1) (29-61) 0.322 (10-28) 0.263 9
10 SBC TROY (8-1) (37-41) 0.474 (13-16) 0.448 10
11 B12 WEST VIRGINIA (8-1) (37-41) 0.474 (17-23) 0.425 11
12 B10 PENN STATE (8-2) (60-35) 0.632 (26-23) 0.531 12
13 B10 WISCONSIN (8-2) (55-44) 0.556 (28-21) 0.571 13
14 B10 NEBRASKA (8-2) (51-49) 0.510 (25-24) 0.510 14
15 B12 OKLAHOMA (8-2) (49-48) 0.505 (15-31) 0.326 15
16 P12 COLORADO (8-2) (53-47) 0.530 (17-34) 0.333 16
17 AAC HOUSTON (8-2) (45-43) 0.511 (18-25) 0.419
18 AAC SOUTH FLORIDA (8-2) (44-45) 0.494 (16-21) 0.432
19 B12 OKLAHOMA STATE (8-2) (42-45) 0.483 (17-29) 0.370
20 P12 UTAH (8-2) (42-48) 0.467 (19-31) 0.380
21 P12 WASHINGTON STATE (8-2) (46-54) 0.460 (13-37) 0.260
22 MAC TOLEDO (8-2) (37-53) 0.411 (17-20) 0.459
23 CUSA WESTERN KENTUCKY (8-3) (52-50) 0.510 (22-22) 0.500
24 CUSA LOUISIANA TECH (8-3) (43-57) 0.430 (20-25) 0.444
25 SEC FLORIDA (7-2) (42-47) 0.472 (18-29) 0.383

The last two-plus weeks of the CFB season is going to be interesting. There are still some great games left to be played and after this past weekend, anyone can beat anybody, anywhere at any given time. Something the main sports media does not understand or accept.

Follow me on Twitter at  @cfbpoexpert and direct your questions, comments and thoughts through Twitter.

 


Alabama Stays #1 for Fourth Week


Alabama retains their #1 college football ranking within my ranking system for the fourth week in a row. Alabama (9-0) survived a scare from LSU, but the supposed “best” college football team struggels offensively. However, those CFB/FBS programs ranked below Alabama seem to outperform their opponents this past weekend by running up the scores to 50+ points to make a statement. The CFP committee possesses a challenge in ranking the college football programs 1 through 25. I did predict last week, that 0-loss Western Michigan woud be ranked no higher than 20th in the CFP poll. I was right, the CFP committee ranked Western Michigan 23rd. Wonder where the CFP committee will rank Western Michigan this week, 20th? I put more faith and confidence in (9-0) Western Michigan and have them ranked 4th this week. They have not lost, they have been consistant, earned their victoriesa dn their ranking within my poll.

So why can’t the CFP committee rank Western Michigan in the Top 4 of their weekly rankings? One reason is that the CFP protocol DOES NOT allow any Group of Five CFB/FBS member access to the $50 Million Dollars at stake but can be considered for a bowl game with some prestige to it and I do believe its comes with a $10 Million dollar payout. The birdesmaid gift for going 0-loss the whole season. The second reason is, if and only if the 0-loss Group of Five FBS/CFB programs is ranked higher than any remaining Power Five Conference Champion but ranked the Group of Five FBS/CFB program must be ranked no lower than 12th in the final rankings. That means for any Group of Five member to gain financial accolades, they must meet specific criterion which is subjective and manipulative based upon the very “inexperienced” CFP committee, coaches who vote with vested interest and a media bias. Pretty hard to swallow for a CFB/FBS/NCAA member institution to abide by even though they pay thier annual membership dues to participate in college athletics, but vehetmetly withheld from the $50 Million dollars on the table and that crystal football to be called National Champion.

As for this weeks rankings, many of the programs are taking a foothold on maintaining thier top 25 rank within my poll. The bottom part of the poll seems to be musical chairs. With three weeks remaining in the CFB season, those competing for my ficticious 16-team playoff spots are getting closer to securing spots. Within the next two weeks, some of the 16 spots will be secured but not finalaized. Facts about this weeks data and bowl eligibility:

48 CFB/FBS programs have secured or earned bowl eligibilty with 6-wins or greater.

24 CFB/FBS programs are 1-win away from earning bowl eligibility.

19 CFB/FBS programs are 2-wins away from bowl eligibility and need to win 2 of their last 3 or 4 games remaining to earn bowl eligibility.

Total number of CFB/FBS programs needed to participate in bowl games is 80.. will the bowls turn to (5-7) programs to complete the bowl season???

Now for this weeks rankings:

 

RANK CONF TEAM RECORD OPP W/L OPP % CONF W/L CONF %
1 SEC ALABAMA (9-0) (49-32) 0.605 (16-17) 0.485
2 B10 MICHIGAN (9-0) (42-40) 0.512 (13-23) 0.361
3 ACC CLEMSON (9-0) (45-26) 0.634 (16-19) 0.457
4 MAC WESTERN MICHIGAN (9-0) (33-41) 0.446 (10-17) 0.370
5 P12 WASHINGTON (9-0) (32-40) 0.444 (10-21) 0.323
6 B10 OHIO STATE (8-1) (47-34) 0.580 (19-17) 0.528
7 MWC BOISE STATE (8-1) (41-40) 0.506 (15-12) 0.556
8 ACC LOUISVILLE (8-1) (38-34) 0.469 (14-24) 0.368
9 MWC SAN DIEGO STATE (8-1) (25-50) 0.333 (8-21) 0.276
10 B12 WEST VIRGINIA (7-1) (29-34) 0.460 (13-17) 0.433
11 SBC TROY (7-1) (29-34) 0.460 (7-13) 0.350
12 B10 PENN STATE (7-2) (52-30) 0.634 (21-15) 0.583
13 SEC AUBURN (7-2) (46-33) 0.582 (13-18) 0.419
14 B10 WISCONSIN (7-2) (47-34) 0.580 (21-15) 0.583
15 B10 NEBRASKA (7-2) (41-41) 0.500 (18-18) 0.500
16 B12 OKLAHOMA (7-2) (39-42) 0.481 (11-25) 0.306
17 SBC APPLACHIAN STATE (7-2) (38-42) 0.475 (9-15) 0.375
18 SEC TEXAS A&M (7-2) (42-29) 0.592 (20-14) 0.588
19 P12 COLORADO (7-2) (47-34) 0.580 (14-24) 0.368
20 MWC WYOMING (7-2) (40-32) 0.580 (11-15) 0.423
21 AAC HOUSTON (7-2) (38-33) 0.535 (15-17) 0.469
22 ACC NORTH CAROLINA (7-2) (38-34) 0.528 (15-18) 0.455
23 ACC VIRGINIA TECH (7-2) (37-35) 0.514 (12-20) 0.275
24 AAC SOUTH FLORIDA (7-2) (36-37) 0.493 (12-16) 0.429
25 B12 OKLAHOMA STATE (7-2) (35-36) 0.493 (13-21) 0.382

 

As the season concludes the rankings will stil remain the same but soon be transposed into playoff rankings. In the next two weeks, Alabama will add an FCS game to their total and any FCS games scheduled counts as a win or loss but does not count as part of your FBS schedule data. This means Alabama is more than likely not going to beable to retain their #1 rank in my poll.  I will explain more when that happens.

Please follow me on Twitter at cfbpoexpert

Comments, questions and debate welcomed by all. Let see how this final 3 weeks determine my field of 16.