BCS: Notre Dame Secures Top spot in field of 16

Notre Dame concludes the 2012 FBS season with an incredible goal line stand to secure a (12-0) season to secure the top seed in this researched based 16 team playoff format. And finally, most impressively the BCS National Championship Game versus an opponent yet to be determined by the subjective voters and computers analysis. The difference between the “official” national championship game and my researched based playoff format is that all 124 FBS programs are considered for the 16 spots depending on their FINAL regular season record. Most importantly,each individual FBS program is considered pending that they are not on NCAA probation. With that said, if  (12-0)Ohio State were eligible then where would they be seeded if they possess the same record as Notre Dame? The answer to that question is that, Ohio State would be seeded #2. Since Ohio State is ineligible who will be seeded #2, that’s the mystery.

With the 2012 FBS season concluding next weekend with five conferences; the Big East, the Big 12, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt  and the Western Athletic finishing with conference games the seeds will not be released until early Sunday morning. I can offer this tidbit of information, the following are in the playoff format with seeds to be determined excluding Notre Dame who has earned the #1 seed.

  1. Notre Dame IND(12-0)
  2. Florida SEC(11-1)
  3. Kent State MAC(11-1)
  4. Oregon PAC 12(11-1)
  5. Northern Illinois MAC(11-1)
  6. Alabama SEC (11-1)
  7. Georgia SEC(11-1)

With 7 spots secured that leaves 9 spots with a possibility of 14 FBS teams to be examined for the remaining 9 spots. It does appear that 10-2 is the record to be achieved to be considered for the field of 16. Being 9-3 may not enough to get in when in some seasons it’s enough to be at least considered. Hopefully your (10-2) team will be selected and even not they will play in a prestigious bowl game.

BCS: 2 MAC FBS Teams Secure Playoff Spots

2 Non-BCS/FBS programs secure 2 of the 15 remaining playoff spots with victories today on the last weeks and final games of the FBS season. Both Northern Illinois and Kent State both ended the season with a 11 wins, which secures their spots.  Kent State ran off 10 wins in a row, while Northern Illinois ran off 11 wins in a row. Of the non-conference  victories that were earned by Kent State were at Army(IND) and at Rutgers(BE), while Northern Illinois earned wins versus at Army(IND) and home versus Kansas(B12). Northern Illinois almost finished the 2012 FBS season as one of the undefeated FBS programs, but lost the first game of the season to Iowa(B12) at Iowa(B12) 16-17.   The lone loss that is the only blemish on Kent State’s record was at Kentucky 14-47. Both of these FBS programs earned these 2 playoff spots with seeding placement to be determined upon the completion of the 2012 season and/or when all playoff eligible programs are being considered.

With 3 playoffs spots secured by Notre Dame, Kent State and Northern Illinois, that leaves the possibility of 34 FBS programs in the final weeks or final game to secure one of the remaining 13 spots with seeds to be determined. We will all be glued to our televisions this weekend to watch how the remaining games to be played turn out. There will be upsets I am sure,  as well as close games and blowouts. There will be more surprises in final 13 spots as well as who is seeded where.


BCS: Notre Dame secures spot in Playoff!!!

With the 2012 FBS college football season drawing to a close, Notre Dame has secured one of the hypothetical playoff spots in my field of 16 teams. Notre Dame’s seed position is yet to be determined. However, the 5 years of college football research in which was performed by myself, examined that from 1996 to the present, that any FBS team that earns 11+ victories are 100% guaranteed a seed within the field of 16. Since 1996, the largest number of 11-win FBS programs were 8, in 1998 and 2001. Lets not forget about Ohio State, if not placed on probation by the NCAA would have also secured a playoff spot like Notre Dame with seed to be determined. By playing by the rules, Ohio State or any FBS program could be playing for prestige, honor and national notoriety. This excludes the increases in media exposure, recruiting and financial gains by participating in additional games.

There are specific criterion that determines the field of 16 in my playoff format. Although hypothetical for now, the criteria possesses NO vested interest, NO human polls and NO computer calculations. The seed selection process is determined  by multiple variables that are determined within the current season and no hypothetical situations.

The remaining 15 spots in my playoff format are still up for grabs. However, as the 2012 season concludes, the current situation is as this for the remaining spots. I will not specifically name any FBS programs currently competing for the remaining seeds, until they have actually secured one of the 16 spots. Of the current (9) 10-win FBS teams, there is an 80% significance that they secure a spot within my field by earning their 11th win. By earning the 11th win, they are 100% guaranteed to secure a spot in the filed of 16, with seeding to be determined. There is still a chance that some or all of these (10) win FBS programs lose this week staying at (10) wins.  Of the current (13) 9- win FBS teams, they can become part of the (10) win with an 80% significance in securing one of the 16 playoff spots. By ending the season with 10 wins, the significance of securing one of the 16 playoff spots is significant.  By ending the season as a (9) win FBS  team, there is only a less than 9% significance in earning one of the 16 seeds.  The largest number of 10- win FBS teams were 10 in successive years, 2006 and 2007. However, in 2007 all (10) 2-loss FBS programs made the field of 16.  In 2007, of the (15) FBS teams with 2-losses (10) made the final field of 16. Does this mean that an FBS team currently with (8) wins looking for the 9th or even 10th are not being considered, No. They still have an “FAIR” opportunity to make the field of 16.

There are 2-weeks still left of the FBS football 2012 season, but many finish the regular season this coming weekend. Only the Big East, Big 12 and the Army/Navy game extends into the first weekend of December. Conference Championship games are not take into account when the selection process. I will not explain why for now.

You will surprised at who is being seeded where………..stay tune for more.

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BCS: The SEC Empire Falls

The reign of the SEC empire falls! I predicted on twitter in the beginning and during the course the 2012 FBS season, that NO SEC program would finish the season with 0-losses.Does the SEC possess credible programs, yes.  But the experts within the major media outlets of television and radio were significantly positive about the SEC repeating, most notably Alabama. What are the contributing factors to the SEC empire falling from the graces of glory and praise.

It only took a B12 team from the great football state of TEXAS to topple the empire. The original SEC writers and media personnel were skeptic that either Texas A&M or Missouri would make an significant impact. Well, now its time for these sports writers and analyst to eat crow and hopefully say they were wrong. The contributing factors for the falling SEC empire is as follows:

  1. Too many programs in the conference. This just supports my research and theory based upon increased number of teams in one conference increases mediocrity.
  2. The SEC lost twice to 2 Sun Belt Conference(SBC) programs at Home and 4 close calls versus SBC programs at Home. Just think if those SBC teams won 2 out of the 4 closes ones. This would have significantly decreased the credibility of the SEC.
  3. The significant hedonistic control of their non-conference schedule and never playing away from their home field. Sooner or later the 79.8% home field advantage that the SEC possesses since  1996, is going to catch up with you in the long run.
  4. The significant 90.1% non-conference home field advantage that Alabama possesses from 1996 definitely does not prepare them for tough games in adverse conditions as the season concludes heading into the clubhouse turn.
  5. Finally, the significant increase in scheduling the FCS programs from 50% in 2006 to 100% in 2012. That’s a 233% increase in 6 years of scheduling FCS programs.

These are just the primary contributors to the SEC empire falling from the graces of the BCS as the years added up. Being the money whores of college football, maybe the SEC teams should invest some that financial accolades earned and schedule somebody of caliber, away from the southeastern region and not in a neutral site.What the SEC fears is losing, just like any other FBS program. The SEC is well aware of that losing early or 1-loss will significantly decrease their chances of  playing for the title game. That’s why the SEC controls and manipulates as many of the computer variables possible making the perception of their accolades better than what reality tells us.

Final Thought: To prepare for the higher level of competition towards the end of the season you must prepare your team with better competition during the course of the season. That means putting your team in an un-familiar position and conditions on the road away from home cooking, excluding conference games. This will better prepare your team as you come out of the clubhouse turn and heading toward the finish line. I guess the SEC is worried about making money versus preparing their kids for adversity in life as the season concludes with tougher competition. The SEC concludes with 6 FCS teams next week before rivalry week. Just another scheduled blow out and statistically significant win for the SEC.  In the future, the SEC should schedule D2 and D3 programs towards the end of the season. I guess my point is well stated and proven.

“Just the Facts Ma’am, Just the facts”

BCS: Big12 slightly more credible than SEC

Is Kansas State better than Alabama…..The perception by the subjective voters who’s decisions are not weighted based upon criteria, but opinion and some vested interest. Using the same criterion as in the previous posts with the SEC and Big 10, it can be determined that the Big 12 along with the Big 10 are slightly or significantly statistically better than the SEC. Even though the current perception is that the SEC is “the best football conference in the FBS”. The reality is by examining the same statistical categorical variable between the 3 FBS/BCS conference, it can be determined that both the Big 10 and Big 12 are the better FBS/BCS conferences within the integrity of the non-conference schedule, taking a significant risk of playing more non-conference games on the road and a decreased rate of scheduling FCS programs.

Since 2006, The Big 12 has NOT significantly increased their FCS scheduling rate, like the SEC . In 2006, the Big 12 scheduled 9 FCS opponents and the same number of FCS opponents in 2012.  The  The Big 12 has scheduled 56 FCS programs, that’s 15 less than SEC and 6 less than the Big 10. Those 56 FCS games account for 19.5% of the Big 12’s non conference games. Since, 2006 the Big 10 scheduled 302 non conference games, slightly less than the SEC and Big 10. This is due the fact that both Colorado and Nebraska left the Big 12 after the 2010 season, then Texas A&M and Missouri left after the 2011 for other FBS conferences. The addition of TCU was not taken into account for since this is TCU’s 1st season in the Big 12 and the season is not complete. Comparing the non-conference win loss percentage rates between the 3 FBS conferences, the Big 12 possesses a significant higher rate than the SEC. The Big 12 win-loss rate for non conference games home games since 2006 is (193-29) at 86.9%. That review of the non conference schedules includes scheduling less non conference home game and more road games than the SEC. The Big 12 scheduled 229 Home games with 73 away games with a 75.5% home field advantage rate.. The exact same rate as the Big 10 and significantly less than the SEC which possesses an 81.8% home field non conference scheduling advantge. The Big 12 scheduled 160 Non-BCS programs since 2006, with 122 home games and 38 away games. Those 38 non conference games scheduled vs. Non-BCS programs is significantly 100% more than the SEC whom only scheduled 19 since 2006. The Big 12’s scheduling practices with BCS programs is significantly more fair and even in a home and away scheduling practice but not in total games scheduled with other BCS programs. The Big 12 scheduled 76 BCS programs but 41 of them Home and 36 away. Similar to the Big 10 but less than the SEC.

Let’s review and compare the Big 12 like I did with the Big 10 and SEC. Colorado, Nebraska, Texas A&M and Missouri will be included in this review since all three were historically part of the Big 12 before all of the conference jumping.

  1. Baylor(3-4, 2012). 19H/7A at a rate of 73.1% with an overall non conference record of (18-8) and a non conference home record of (14-5).  Of the non-conference games schedule versus BCS programs since 2006 are: Washington State, Wake Forest, TCU and Connecticut all H/A.
  2. Colorado(1-7, PAC12). 15H/5A at a rate of 75.0%. with an overall non conference record of (9-11) and a non conference home record of (9-6).  Of the non-conference games schedule versus BCS programs since 2006 are: Florida State 2H, California A along with Arizona State, Georgia and West Virginia all H and A.
  3. Iowa State(5-3). 18H/8A at a rate of 69.2% with an overall non conference record of (17-9) and a non conference home record of 14-4).  Of the non-conference games schedule versus BCS programs since 2006 are: Connecticut A and the traditional yearly rivalry with Iowa 3H/4A. Iowa State has scheduled more Non-BCS programs home and away.
  4. Kansas(1-7). 20H/6A at a rate of 76.9% with an overall non conference record of (19-7) and a non conference home record of (18-2).  Of the non-conference games schedule versus BCS programs since 2006 are: Georgia Tech H and A along with Duke A. Kansas like Iowa State also scheduled more non conference games vs. Non-BCS programs than BCS programs.
  5. Kansas State(8-0). 19H/7A at a rate of 73.1 with an overall non conference record of (20-6) and a non conference home record of (18-1).  Of the non-conference games schedule versus BCS programs since 2006 are: Auburn A along with Louisville, UCLA and Miami(Fla.) all H and A.
  6. Missouri(4-4, SEC). 18H/5A at a rate of 78.2% with an overall non conference record  of (22-1) and a non conference home record of (18-0).  Of the non-conference games schedule versus BCS programs since 2006 are: Mississippi H/A, Illinois 1H/2A and Arizona State A.
  7. Nebraska(6-2, Big 10). 17H/4A at a rate of 80.9% with an overall non conference record of (17-4) and non conference home record of (15-2).  Of the non-conference games schedule versus BCS programs since 2006 are: Washington A, Wake Forest A and both USC and Virginia Tech H and A. Nebraska did schedule 12 Non-BCS programs all at Home.
  8. Oklahoma(5-2). 19H/7A at a rate of 73.1% with an overall non conference record of (22-4) and a non conference home record of (17-2).  Of the non-conference games schedule versus BCS programs since 2006 are: Oregon A, Notre Dame H along with Washington, Cincinnati, Miami(Fla.) and Florida State all H and A.
  9. Oklahoma State(5-2). 20H/6A at a rate of 76.9% with an overall non conference record of (21-5) and a non conference home record of (19-1).  Of the non-conference games schedule versus BCS programs since 2006 are: Georgia, Washington State and Arizona all H and A. Oklahoma State did schedule more Non-BCS programs  with 15 games.
  10. Texas(6-2). 20H/6A at a rate of 76.9% with an overall non conference record of (24-2) and a non conference home record of (18-2).  Of the non-conference games schedule versus BCS programs since 2006 are: UCLA H/A, Ohio State and Arkansas H and Mississippi A. Texas did schedule the most Non-BCS programs with 19 15H/4A however Texas only scheduled 1 FCS program since 2006.
  11. Texas A&M(6-2, SEC). 20H/3A at a rate of 86.9% with an overall non conference record of (17-6) and non conference home record of (16-4).  Of the non-conference games schedule versus BCS programs since 2006 are: Arkansas 2H/1A and Miami(Fla) H/A. Texas A&M did schedule 15 Non-BCS programs with 14H/1A.
  12. Texas Tech(6-2). 17h/9A at a rate of 65.3% with an overall non conference record of (24-2) and a non conference home record of (17-0). The interesting fact about Texas Tech  is that since 2006, they have never scheduled a BCS program during the review of this data. The last BCS program Texas Tech scheduled were Mississippi and North Carolina State both A in 2003. Texas Tech does possess the highest rate of Non-BCS games scheduled within the Big 12 at 18 but 9H/9A.

What this data reveals is that the evidence does support that the Big 12 is slightly better than the SEC. The Big 12’s non conference home record is comparable and slightly better than the SEC’s. The Big 12 possesses a non-conference home record of 86.9% vs. the SEC at 86.1% since 2006.  The Big 12 significantly schedules less FCS opponents, schedules a fair and credible BCS non conference schedule not only H/A  but travels to both coasts and all 5 other FBS/BCS conferences along with scheduling more Non-BCS programs away than the SEC. The SEC has never scheduled the Big 10.  The facts are, both the Big 10 and Big 12 are slightly better than the SEC. Like the Big 10, the Big 12 does reciprocate more in their non conference scheduling practices scheduling a H and A series with BCS programs. The Big 12 currently does not possess any program with a non conference scheduling rate higher than 76.9% where as 75% of the SEC possesses a rate greater than 76.9%.

Many sports analysts from major television networks try to discredit specific conferences and programs because they fail to investigate the vital components of every FBS programs true credibility and constantly discuss the “body of work”. Yes, wins and losses do indicate the teams credibility for that specific season. However, with the current system in use to determine the champion in college football, specific FBS programs and conferences have significantly figured out how to manipulate the computerized system to skew the statistical numerical data in their favor. With the evidence supporting that 2 FBS conferences are slightly better than the SEC, then ask yourself this:

If the SEC claims to be the best FBS conference in college football, what fears does the SEC possess about scheduling more non conference games away at FBS conference sites and NOT in neutral sites? What they fear is losing that false sense of perception of being the best and possibly losing that significant opportunity to secure the most bowl berths and the largest bowl financial payouts. The question I have asked many SEC writers and major television sports analysts is, why didn’t Alabama play Michigan in Ann Arbor? Is playing in front of 110K+ fans not good enough or did they fear losing the first game of the season on the road at Michigan which would ultimately and significantly decreasing their chances of playing for the national title. Thus discrediting their false sense of credibility and reign in the FBS. Even at the professional level of sports does not possess 100% control of their schedule. Should the Miami Heat say” no we cant play the Lakers in LA, they must come here or we can play in Orlando”.  Should the NY Giants tell the NFL, “wait we play 16 games we get 13 of them at home. We are the defending champions everyone else accept our divisional opponents must travel to us”. Yes the professional levels of sports and college sports is big business and about money. The professional leagues play a 50/50 schedule and still makes money. What makes the SEC special, they make more money and believe they are entitled to scheduling privileges over any other FBS program. The facts supports that the SEC is hedonistically driven and fear losing that presitigious reputation and money.

Those are the fact……