Wisconsin Ends 2017 FBS Season #1


Congratulations to the Wisconsin Badgers (12-0) for ending the 2017 college football regular season as only one (1) of two (2) 0-loss programs and securing the number one ranking in my weekly coaches poll. For those who have asked why Wisconsin, first and foremost, they played twelve (12) FBS programs this season, did not schedule a FCS opponent and they scheduled and played an away game at BYU to play a regular season game. That means they LEFT the comfort of their home and home region to play another FBS opponent. With only two (2) 0-loss programs left at the end of the regular season, I guess this supports my research and findings in my book.

Also, congratulations to the Knights from Central Florida (11-0) for ending the regular season as the other 0-loss FBS program. The Knights had to make schedule maneuvers to accomodate for the start of the 2017 college football season, handled adversity with hurricanes that effected not only one (1) scheduled game, but two (2) scheduled games. This act of God, required Central Florida to re-schedule their confernece game with Memphis later in the season, which makes conference games a requirment to re-schedule over any other non-conference game. Central Florida dropped their FCS game with the Maine Bears to accomodate for the game with Memphis. However, UCF later scheduled Austin Peay, an FCS member. Any FBS team who can handle adversity, remain un-defeated, handle the act of God situation, not once, but twice and finally survive one of the best college football games of the season with South Florida. Central Florida in my book, EARNED the second ranking and a trip to the CFP.

I also believe that Central Florida should be under consideration for the College Football Playoff (CFP). However, I believe that the CFP Committee has specific protocol to follow and that protocol states, that NO Group of Five Conference FBS member is eligible to compete for the College Football Playoff and the National Championship. Eventhough, UFC and the Director of Athletics, Daniel J. White, makes sure that the UCF athletic programs abide by and are compliant with the NCAA Bylaws. The UCF Director of Athletics also, is required to meet NCAA Bylaw 20, then abide by NCAA Bylaw 3.1 thought 3.4. Then congruent with that, UCF must meet and abide by the Title IX rules and regulations which are also inclusive to the NCAA Bylaw 20. If college athletics is being operated under a “business like structure”, then college athletics and the Group of Five Conference Commissioners, Athletic Directors, their FBS programs, Coaches and Players should press the issue and ask for an improved playoff format which is more Utilitarianistic, under the Stuart MIll’s philosophy, which is more “inclusive” then exclusive. If the Group of Five does not see a change under that manner in which is “inclusive”, then they should ban together and file suit against the power brokers under the Sherman Act of 1890 which protects them. Once the Sherman Act of 1890 is started, then the Clayton Act of 1914 protects them in more ways that you can only imagine. I have investigated both and pubished a chapter within my book, with that chapter being called: Chapter 17: The Sherman Act vs. The NCAA and the Power Brokers.

However, its interesting that Central Florida MIGHT be able to compete for one of the New Year’s Day Six Bowl Games (NYDSBG). I call this the “bridesmaid prize”, because UCF needs to meet specific requirements to be considered for the “bridesmaid” prize. That means they need to beat Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game to just earn the “bridesmaid” prize. Eventhought UCF would be (12-0), they won’t be on the CFP committees radar. If UCF loses the AAC Championship Game, then UCF might not receive that (NYDSBG) bid.  Might want to purchase and read my book. It’s time for an expanded playoff format.

I will now explain how my weekly rankings work. I rank based upon the professional model theory. This means that college athletics generates tripel digits of Millons of dollars annually in revenue, just like the professional levels of sports (i.e. the NFL, the NBA. the NHL, the MLB and the MLS). I do not use subjective assessments, the eye test or biasness to rank. I use dependent variables and categorical variable within those dependent varaibles to rank weekly.  Each variable has a direct relationship and effect on the independent variable. I do not rank FBS programs based upon vested interest or that’s my favorite or that this team need to be ranked higher than this team because they are from this conference. Each FBS team earns their ranking based upon varaibles in which they create and results based. I also examine the non-confernce schedule as a major variable. By examining the non-conference schedule, I can assess and evaluate the non conference schedule based upon number of home games versus number of away games. If any FBS team plays more home games than away games within their non-conference schedule, then I can assess that that specific FBS team does not take ANY risks within their non-conference schedule. If any FBS teams plays more away games in their non-conference schedule and earns a credible record, then they will have a better ranked position over any FBS team who plays more home games in their non-conference schedule. I have read the various peer reviewed research and articles that examined home field advantage in relationship to schedule, more home games and how it impacts your overall record.  NO RISK… NO REWARD. This is just part of how I rank each week of the college football season. There are three (3) chapters within my book that examined the research and I published other results that supports the already pubished peer reviewed research.

Here is this weeks, almost final rankings.  There is one more week that needs to be completed before the final rankings. The Sun Belt Confernce FBS programs and Florida State each must play one more game before the FINAL rankings appear. This 2017 College Football FBS Season has been exciting and great for the 37+ MIllion college football fans to watch and enjoy. Many upsets appeared as the season wound down towards the end. Never use a crystal ball to see the future or make predictions, especially in a college athletics. Just let the games play out.

A B C D E F G H
1 WISCONSIN (12-0) (.514) 75 (19-18) (.476) 103 (69-76) (.358) 129 (29-52) (.452) 20 29 7
2 CENTRAL FLORIDA (11-0) (.471) 90 (16-18) (.504) 85 (64-63) (.453) 96 (29-35) (.503) 2 20 8
3 OKLAHOMA (11-1) (.417) 103  (15-21) (.479) 99 (69-75) (.463) 94 (37-43) (.564) 1 19 5
4 GEORGIA (11-1) (.618) 33 (21-13) (.574) 27 (74-55) (.438) 100 (28-36) (.483) 11 26 8
5 CLEMSON (11-1) (.556) 58 (20-16) (.562) 43 (73-57) (.500) 92 (32-32) (.409) 34 31 5
6 ALABAMA (11-1) (.600) 37 (21-14) (.565) 36 (74-57) (.406) 123 (26-38) (.531) 3 31 6
7 MIAMI (FLA) (10-1) (.765) 2 (26-8) (.539) 61 (69-59) (.411) 120 (23-33) (.391) 45 22 4
8 MEMPHIS (10-1) (.485) 85 (16-17) (.476) 102 (60-66) (.453) 97 (29-35) (.513) 6 16 6
9 USC (10-2) (.583) 43 (21-15) (.528) 70 (76-68) (.493) 73 (35-36) (.409) 35 21 2
10 OHIO STATE (10-2) (.686) 10 (24-11) (.538) 62 (77-66) (.407) 122 (33-48) (.519 ) 5 24 8
11 PENN STATE (10-2) (.529) 68 (18-16) (.557) 47 (78-62) (.506) 59 (41-40) (.481) 12 33 7
12 SAN DIEGO STATE (10-2) (.667) 15 (24-12) (.474) 104 (63-70) (.438) 105 (28-36) (.401) 39 21 5
13 TOLEDO (10-2) (.429) 98 (15-20) (.466) 110 (61-70) (.500) 68 (32-32) (.510) 7 21 5
14 WASHINGTON (10-2) (.542) 66 (13-11) (.515) 80 (68-64) (.420) 119 (34-47) (.493) 10 28 8
15 TCU (10-2) (.458) 91 (11-13) (.500) 89 (66-66) (.475) 83 (38-47) (.392) 44 32 4
16 AUBURN (10-2) (.500) 77 (17-17) (.615) 7 (80-50) (.563) 19 (36-28) (.468) 16 28 7
17 TROY (9-2) (.583) 44 (21-15) (.423) 122 (52-71) (.448) 98 (26-32) (.377) 55 21 5
18 SOUTH FLORIDA (9-3) (.222) 129 (8-28) (.377) 130 (49-81) (.422) 118 (27-37) (.438) 22 27 5
19 OKLAHOMA STATE (9-3) (.314) 121 (11-24) (.469) 109 (67-76) (.488) 76 (39-41) (.520) 4 23 5
20 BOISE STATE (9-3) (.583) 45 (28-20) (.542) 60 (78-66) (.547) 29 (35-29) (.377) 54 24 4
21 STANFORD (9-3) (.588) 42 (20-14) (.563) 39 (81-63) (.494) 70 (40-41) (.444) 21 16 2
22 NOTRE DAME (9-3) (.582) 52 (39-28) (.641) 3 (91-51) (.765) 1 (39-12) (.420) 27 20 5
23 NORTHWESTERN (9-3) (.306) 123 (11-25) (.486) 94 (70-74) (.469) 86 (38-43) (.349) 76 23 3
24 MICHIGAN STATE (9-3) (.528) 70 (19-17) (.563) 41 (81-63) (.494) 71 (40-41) (.321) 94 27 2
25 FLORIDA ATLANTIC (9-3) (.686) 12 (24-11) (.546) 54 (71-59) (.492) 74 (31-32) (.497) 9 19 5

ANY FBS team that is in BOLD is an FBS team that scheduled and played an FCS program during the course of the 2017 regular season.

Honorable Mentioned: All are (9-3); Virginia Tech, North Texas, Fresno State, Washington State, and LSU

Key: A-Rank Order; B- Team and Current Overall Record; C- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Non-Conference Schedule, Rank within that Categorical Variable and the Overall Record; D- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Overall Regular Season Schedule, Rank within that Categorical Variable and the Overall Record; E- Percentage Rate of the ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Conference Schedule, Rank within that Categorical Variable and Overall Record; F- Percentage Rate of your Offensive Efficiency and Ranking within that Categorical Variable (described as: number of offensive and defensive possessions that results in points); G- Defensive Efficiency Rating (described as: number of times that your teams Defense were successful in possessing 3 consecutive stops against your opponent when they possessed the ball and stopped them from scoring (3 consecutive stops equals 1)) and H- Game Control Categorical Variable based upon the three possession score outcome (described as: the end score result that possesses a 21 point differential in final score).

As of this time of the current college football season there are 80 bowl eligible FBS programs with six (6) wins or more, and 3 more waiting in the wings with five (5) wins. Those five (5) win programs are; New Mexico State, Louisiana Lafayette and Florida State. Each have one (1) more regular season game to complete this week. This means that there will be no need to assess any credible (5-7) FBS programs for any open bowl openings, even if there was an expanded playoff format of 8 or 16 FBS programs. If there were a need for any (5-7) FBS programs, these programs would be and should be considered for a bowl game based upon research and number of 1-possession losses. Those programs are: Eastern Michigan with six (6) 1-possession losses, and both Indiana and Tulane with four (4) 1-possession losses.

If you plan on using any of my ideas, thoughts or rankings to disucss publically in print, web based media postings or on air debates either in television or radio; please adhere to the APA/MLA policies and procedures when citing sources.

My book “College Football In The BCS Era The Untold Truth Facts Evidence and Solutions” (Siggelow, 2016); is the published research, The book is available at lulu.com


Wisconsin Still Number #1


College football is the one of the most exciting amateur sports, that 37+ Million fans attend each year, during the last quarter of the calender year. There is excitement, great plays, upsets, and all performed by student athletes. The most challenging aspect of college football is rewarding those FBS programs the opportunity to be ranked within the college football polls as the best Top 25, at that moment in time, during that week. Those FBS programs who can sustain excellence with a high level of competition and attentional focus, will always be ranked with the better ranking. Wisconsin (11-0) from the Big 10 Conference has sustained their attentional focus and are still one (1) of only four (4) FBS programs with 0-losses this season. The key question is, can Wisconsin sustain that for one more week of their regular season and then receive one (1) of the four CFP playoff spots? In a field of 16 Wisconsin is already in even if they lost their last regualr season game to Minnesota.

For the past weeks from mid-October to this last part of rivalry weekend, there have been many upsets and great games played. This weekend coming will be the most entertaining weekend of all. There are at least 20+ games that will effect the rankings, the playoff picture, my field of 16, and how many 0-loss programs will remain. Wisconsin plays Minnesota on the road, Alabama plays Auburn on the road, Miami (Fla.) hosts Pittsburgh and Central Florida host South Florida. Who will remain standing at the end of the regular season with 0-losses. I believe that there will be 2 FBS programs ending the season at 0-losses.

Ranking teams, programs and individuals is not the easiest concept, but witholding a bias against or for each item you rank is key. Ranking should be based upon the current season’s work and how they accumulate their overall record in relationship to their overall schedule, non-conference schedule and conference schedule. Credibility is based upon how you perform against your schedule during the course of the season. All FBS programs that are associated or a member of a conference, each possesses has NO control over their conference schedule, but they do have COMPLETE control over their non-conference schedule. However, that non-conference schedule is developed with contracts signed years in advance with the pre-determination that the FBS program you are sheduling those non conference games minimally 2+ years in advance. All under the premise that the FBS program you scheudle will be successful, viable and competitive. If a FBS program schedules an FCS program (i.e. Mercer), your credibility should possess a negative effect. Research supports that when an FBS program schedules and plays an FCS program during the regular season at any point in time of that regular season and ALWAYS at home against the FCS program; FBS programs win 90+% of the time and by 4+ possessions or more (meaning by at least 28 Points or more), then that game should not count in your win total and held negatively against you. However, thew win and loss does count but not held in any negative aspect when subjectively assessing.

The review of this weeks rankings shows no changes in the Top 8 ranked placements from my previous week. The only aspects that does change within the weekly rankings are the data points and which data points I use to demonstarte a more descriptive ranking system with no bias. Here is this weeks rankings for college football at the FBS level.

 

A B C D E F G
1 WISCONSIN (11-0) (.500) 80 (.481) 99 (.361) 130 (.449) 22 26
2 ALABAMA (11-0) (.576) 48 (.562) 42 (.393) 123 (.556) 2 30
3 MIAMI FLA. (10-0) (.774) 2 (.538) 67 (.392) 124 (.412) 33 22
4 CENTRAL FLORIDA (10-0) (.484) 87 (.509) 84 (.446) 101 (.560) 18 18
5 OKLAHOMA (10-1) (.412) 109 (.481) 100 (.465) 92 (.551) 3 18
6 GEORGIA (10-1) (.645) 22 (.593) 19 (.510) 56 (.471) 13 24
7 CLEMSON (10-1) (.576) 49 (.563) 40 (.492) 74 (.406) 38 28
8 USC (10-2) (.636) 24 (.545) 59 (.438) 106 (.408) 37 21
9 MEMPHIS (9-1) (.500) 81 (.487) 96 (.464) 95 (.490) 9 14
10 SOUTH FLORIDA (9-1) (.206) 129 (.367) 130 (.411) 119 (.438) 25 24
11 NOTRE DAME (9-2) (.574) 56 (.641) 3 (.787) 1 (.430) 27 19
12 BOISE STATE (9-2) (.591) 44 (.541) 66 (.544) 34 (.452) 21 23
13 OHIO STATE (9-2) (.697) 10 (.553) 55 (.417) 114 (.531) 4 22
14 PENN STATE (9-2) (.516) 73 (.563) 41 (.514) 55 (.462) 19 29
15 SAN DIEGO STATE (9-2) (.667) 17 (.467) 107 (.421) 112 (.400) 43 16
16 TOLEDO (9-2) (.452) 99 (.479) 102 (.518) 52 (.503) 8 19
17 WASHINGTON (9-2) (.545) 59 (.512) 81 (.411) 115 (.489) 10 25
18 TCU (9-2) (.455) 92 (.504) 87 (.479) 86 (.384) 49 29
19 AUBURN (9-2) (.484) 88 (.622) 10 (.579) 16 (.469) 15 26
20 WASHINGTON STATE (9-2) (.500) 82 (.549) 56 (.473) 88 (.400) 44 27
21 TROY (8-2) (.545) 60 (.404) 126 (.442) 103 (.344) 76 18
22 OKLAHOMA STATE (8-3) (.313) 122 (.473) 105 (.493) 73 (.506) 7 20
23 STANFORD (8-3) (.613) 34 (.564) 39 (.479) 85 (.446) 23 15
24 NORTHEWESTERN (8-3) (.273) 126 (.477) 103 (.458) 97 (.347) 75 19
25 MICHIGAN STATE (8-3) (.576) 50 (.583) 25 (.500) 63 (.292) 108 25

Honorable Mentioned: Michigan, Virginia Tech, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Army, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Fresno State, LSU, Mississippi State and South Carolina all are (8-3).

Key: A-Rank Order; B- Team and Current Overall Record; C- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Non-Conference Schedule and Rank within that Categorical Variable; D- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Overall Regular Season Schedule and Rank within that Categorical Variable; E- Percentage Rate of the ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Conference Schedule and Rank, F- Percentage Rate of your Offensive Efficiency and Ranking within that Categorical Variable (described as: number of offensive and defensive possessions that results in points). G- Defensive Efficiency Rating (described as: number of times that your teams Defense were successful in possessing 3 consecutive stops against your opponent when they possessed the ball and stopped them from scoring (3 consecutive stops equals 1)).

As of this time of the current college football season there are 70 bowl eligible FBS programs with six (6) wins or more, and 18 more waiting in the wings with five (5) wins. At the four (4) win level and now with only two (2) opportunities to become bowl eligible; there are two (2) four (4) win FBS programs that can still earn bowl eligibility. There are only two (2) weeks remaining in the season; It’s going to be exciting, fun and heart breaking for some of these FBS programs.

If you plan on using any of my ideas, thoughts or rankings to disucss publically in print, web based media postings or on air debates either in television or radio; please adhere to the APA/MLA policies and procedures when citing sources.

My book “College Football In The BCS Era The Untold Truth Facts Evidence and Solutions” (Siggelow, 2016); is the published research, The book is available at lulu.com


Wisconsin Remains #1 As The Unexpected Continues


From the Big 10 Conference, Wisconsin remains number one in my weekly poll for the fourth week in a row. Looking below Wisconsin in my college football poll, it seems there is constant movement of musical chairs being played as the college football season winds down in the home stretch. The upsets and unexpected outcomes of college football keeps happening. What many media members fail to understand is towards the end of the college football season, normalcy does not exist, but the unexpected seems to rear its ugly head. This causes a shake up with everyones polls, rankings, confidence levels, cognitive thoughts and the facing of the reality of how college football changes on a week to week basis. These types of changes are great for the sport of college football and those fans who enjoy the games, in addition to the possibility of expanding the playoffs.

With three (3) weeks remaining in the college football season, their are only four (4) 0-loss programs remaining. Of those 0-loss programs, Central Florida from the American Athletic Conference (AAC) is not receiving the credit or just due ranking either in the coaches poll or CFP polls, for their successful season in which they have earned, not given. I am the only one who ranks Central Florida in the Top Five (5). Central Florida ranks first in Offensive Efficiency with my rating system in which I designed and created. Central Florida’s Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) is at (.580). This means Central Florida’s scoring efficiency is based upon number of total game possessions both offensively and defensively, and turning those possession into points, at 58% of the time. Moreover, Central Florida ranks in the Top Half of all FBS programs in cumulative records within their non-conference scheduled opponents at a rate of (.536). I guess the CFP committee does not use all data points to give credit in ranking, where credit is due.

As we head into the final stretch run of college football, there are still MANY great games to be played with many more upsets to come. Here is my weekly Top Twenty-Five rankings:

A B C D E F
1 WISCONSIN (10-0) (.484) 86 (.488) 98 (.365) 128 (.467) 14
2 ALABAMA (10-0) (.533) 66 (.555) 54 (.388) 125 (.558) 3
3 MIAMI FLA. (9-0) (.750) 5 (.528) 70 (.400) 120 (.405) 41
4 CENTRAL FLORIDA (9-0) (.536) 64 (.533) 69 (.460) 92 (.580) 1
5 OKLAHOMA (9-1) (.387) 113 (.479) 103 (.468) 86 (.561) 2
6 GEORGIA (9-1) (.655) 22 (.593) 22 (.426) 111 (.464) 16
7 CLEMSON (9-1) (.567) 52 (.556) 53 (.491) 79 (.373) 61
8 USC (9-2) (.633) 25 (.557) 50 (.455) 99 (.415) 38
9 WASHINGTON STATE (9-2) (.500) 77 (.554) 55 (.470) 85 (.400) 42
10 MEMPHIS (8-1) (.536) 65 (.505) 88 (.460) 93 (.469) 13
11 SOUTH FLORIDA (8-1) (.194) 129 (.367) 130 (.408) 117 (.447) 24
12 OKLAHOMA STATE (8-2) (.345) 119 (.479) 105 (.484) 81 (.514) 6
13 NOTRE DAME (8-2) (.564) 57 (.639) 3 (.786) 1 (.426) 30
14 BOISE STATE (8-2) (.619) 33 (.553) 56 (.551) 29 (.427) 29
15 MICHIGAN (8-2) (.345) 118 (.538) 67 (.524) 49 (.353) 70
16 OHIO STATE (8-2) (.700) 12 (.567) 40 (.429) 108 (.530) 5
17 PENN STATE (8-2) (.517) 73 (.573) 36 (.524) 48 (.447) 23
18 SAN DIEGO STATE (8-2) (.633) 26 (.459) 108 (.429) 109 (.393) 47
19 ARMY (8-2) (.484) 87 (.418) 123 (.392) 124 (.444) 25
20 TOLEDO (8-2) (.464) 94 (.481) 102 (.521) 53 (.477) 10
21 OHIO (8-2) (.267) 125 (.382) 129 (.458) 98 (.475) 11
22 WASHINGTON (8-2) (.550) 58 (.518) 80 (.409) 116 (.479) 8
23 TCU (8-2) (.500) 78 (.518) 79 (.487) 79 (.381) 57
24 TROY (8-2) (.533) 67 (.394) 126 (.422) 114 (.344) 77
25 AUBURN (8-2) (.464) 95 (.604) 14 (.560) 24 (.474) 12

Key: A-Rank Order; B- Team and Current Overall Record; C- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Non-Conference Schedule and Rank within that Categorical Variable; D- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Overall Regular Season Schedule and Rank within that Categorical Variable; E- Percentage Rate of the ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Conference Schedule and Rank; and F- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Offensive Efficiency and Rank within that Categorical Variable.

As of this time of the current college football season there are 59 bowl eligible FBS programs with six (6) wins or more, and 21 more waiting in the wings with five (5) wins. There are three (3) weeks remaining in the season; there are plenty of opportunities for the 21 four (4) win FBS programs to earn bowl eligibility. Time is running out on some. Who will earn those bowl bids? How many FBS programs will become bowl eligible? We will find out soon.

If you plan in reciting any of my ideas, thoughts or rankings to disucss publically in print, web based media postings or on air debates either in television or radio; please adhere to the APA/MLA polocies and procedures when citing sources.

My book “College Football In The BCS Era The Untold Truth Facts Evidence and Solutions” (Siggelow, 2016); is the published research, The book is available at lulu.com


Wisconsin Remains #1 in Weekly Poll


Even thought the primary ranking groups of the; CFP Committee, the Amway Coaches Poll, and the AP Media Poll weekly college football rankings, do not have Wisconsin ranked as Number 1, I do. It was said, on an ESPN late night radio show from the Freddie and Fitz show, and I will be paraphasing from Ian Fitzimmons based out of the ESPN-Dallas area and when a caller from Arizona commented about the College Football Playoff ranking of the Top 4. The callers question was “why not just rank the 0-loss programs as the top four seeds because they are un-defeated”. Ian Fitzsimmons commented to the caller ” we are not handing out participation trophies here, its about selecting the best four football programs” (Fitzsimmons, 2017). Interesting that Wisconsin football team is a 0-loss program and on the outside looking in for the College Football Playoff. I have them ranked number one in my polls th the last few weeks over the popular 0-loss programs of Georgia and Alabama.

What the sports media “experts” and the CFP Committee, fail to understand is that numbers and data do not lie. The sports media can manipulate the image in what we see and do their best to forget about the numbers and data. I am purely opposite, I use the professional model theory to support my rankings and other variables to account for why and how I rank one (1) through twenty-five (25). Ranking programs is more than just an eye test, and media promotion of what they believe is the best college football programs. Games are played by the players, coaches coach the game, each make cognitive decisions to make the best play and each effort by both coaches and players is only measured by play outcomes both good or bad. The ranking numbers by the media possesses vested interest, where as I rank based upon specific data points, not vested interest. Ranked positions are earned not given. The rankings should not be based upon who you are, which conference you represent or who the sports media supports.

There are so many more great games to be played during the remaining 3+ weeks of the college football season. With many more upsets to occur and more great finishes to watch as the top teams go head to head to create more controversy of who will make the publicized playoffs. I believe we are at the “top of turn four” of the college football season. Its going to be an exciting, remaining, last few weeks as many will root for the upsets and more great games. Here are my weekly rankings for college football.

A B C D E
1 WISCONSIN (9-0) (.448) 95 (.482) 100 (.352) 129
2 GEORGIA (9-0) (.654) 3 (.598) 21 (.413) 117
3 ALABAMA (9-0) (.556) 56 (.566) 46 (.395) 123
4 MIAMI FLA. (8-0) (.840) 1 (.568) 44 (.436) 105
5 CENTRAL FLORIDA (8-0) (.560) 55 (.552) 59 (.477) 84
6 NOTRE DAME (8-1) (.540) 67 (.626) 1 (.784) 1
7 OKLAHOMA (8-1) (.357) 117 (.477) 102 (.472) 94
8 TOLEDO (8-1) (.423) 102 (.469) 104 (.525) 47
9 CLEMSON (8-1) (.556) 57 (.557) 54 (.489) 76
10 TCU (8-1) (.556) 58 (.525) 77 (.472) 93
11 WASHINGTON (8-1) (.556) 59 (.524) 79 (.407) 120
12 MEMPHIS (8-1) (.500) 78 (.495) 96 (.455) 98
13 SOUTH FLORIDA (8-1) (.179) 129 (.360) 130 (.395) 124
14 USC (8-2) (.630) 27 (.559) 52 (.448) 100
15 SAN DIEGO STATE (8-2) (.630) 28 (.460) 111 (.419) 114
16 WASHINGTON STATE (8-2) (.444) 97 (.553) 57 (.475) 92
17 BOISE STATE (7-2) (.605) 43 (.549) 63 (.545) 38
18 OKLAHOMA STATE (8-2) (.333) 118 (.481) 101 (.491) 74
19 MICHIGAN STATE (7-2) (.630) 29 (.602) 20 (.481) 82
20 MICHIGAN (7-2) (.385) 113 (.551) 61 (.519) 52
21 OHIO STATE (7-2) (.704) 2 (.583) 32 (.444) 101
22 PENN STATE (7-2) (.538) 68 (.590) 27 (.537) 42
23 ARMY (7-2) (.464) 90 (.404) 124 (.380) 127
24 TROY (7-2) (.556) 60 (.400) 125 (.421) 113
25 OHIO (7-2) (.259) 127 (.384) 129 (.475) 91

Honorable Mentioned: Mississippi State, Auburn and Virginia Tech all are (7-2).

Key: A-Rank Order; B- Team and Current Overall Record; C- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Non-Conference Schedule and Rank within that Categorical Variable; D- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Overall Regular Season Schedule and Rank within that Categorical Variable; E- Percentage Rate of the ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Conference Schedule and Rank.

As of this time of the current college football season there are 50 bowl eligible FBS programs wth six (6) wins or more, and 21 more waiting in the wings with five (5) wins. At the four (4) win level and only 3 or 4 opportunities to become bowl eligible. There are three (3) + weeks remaining in the season; It’s going to be exciting, fun and heart breaking.

If you plan on using any of my ideas, thoughts or rankings to disucss publically in print, web based media postings or on air debates either in television or radio; please adhere to the APA/MLA policies and procedures when citing sources.

My book “College Football In The BCS Era The Untold Truth Facts Evidence and Solutions” (Siggelow, 2016); is the published research, The book is available at lulu.com

Coleman, Freddie and Ian Fitzsimmons (2017). ESPN Radio. Evening Time Slot. “Discussing the current college football playoff rankings, taking listener calls and questions.”. Talk Radio. ESPN-Bristol and ESPN- Dallas. ESPN Studios.


Wisconsin and Big Ten Takes Over #1 Rank


Wisconsin (8-0) takes over the number one ranked spot within my weekly college football rankings. The reason why Wisconsin (8-0) is ranked number one and not Georgia or Alabama ranked number one is due to the fact that Wisconsin and the BIG 10 have made SIGNIFICANT strides to eliminating scheduling the FCS games and scheduling more road games at FBS site venues. Fact; The BIG 10 only scheduled three (3) FCS games this year but, the Southeastern Conference scheduled every SEC program with an FCS game. The most interesing fact is that Alabama is scheduled to play FCS Mercer the week before Alabama plays Auburn on Thanksgiving Weekend. This fact, not theory, decreases the SEC credibility within their non conference schedule as a whole. Published research states that FBS programs who schedule FCS programs, win 90% of the time, and by at least 4+ possessions. That 4+ possessions means by at least 28 points. This inidcate that easy wins versus lower level classification outside of the FBS level earns no credibility even if you are a 0-loss program. The other factor that gives Wisconsin the number one ranked position within my poll is they played or will play a non-conference game on the road at an FBS opponents stadium site. Thus playing games on the road within your non-conference schedule means you are taking a RISK playing in an un-comfortable setting. Alabama is playing no FBS programs on the road at THEIR stadium site.To tie all of this together, Wisconsin scheduled 12 FBS programs and the SEC only schedules 11 FBS programs. FACTS are FACTS to the reality of the situation, you cannot change the evidence of the findings and data.

What a great college football season this has been turning out to be. Upsets, surprises and more as we continue through “Amen’s Corner” of the college football season. Hats off to Iowa State for pulling the third consecutive win over a marquee named opponent and increasing the record of Iowa State to (6-2) overall and (4-1) within the Big 12 Conference. Iowa State is tied atop the conference with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU. Iowa State is bowl eligible with this win and success can only continue for this Cyclone program. With four (4) weeks remaining, there are still more upsets and surprises in store.

Ohio State (7-1) pulls off the comback victory over Penn State (7-1), to redeem last years loss and to decrease the number of 0-loss programs remaining within the FBS level of play. Heading into this week’s college football schedule there now stands only five (5) 0-loss programs; Wisconsin, Georgia, Alabama, Miami (Fla.) and Central Florida. I wonder who will be the next 0-loss program to fall? With four (4) week’s remaining of the college football season, my intuition tells me that there will be only two (2) 0-loss programs left standing at the end of the regular season. Not sure which two (2). I am not like the sports media “experts” from ESPN or FOX Sports that use a crystal ball to predict outcomes of the college football season, predicts final season records and predicts who will win each week. I let the games play out and analyze the data to determine how to rank.

This weeks college football schedule has MANY interesting marquee games that will effect the rankings. First game of importance is (7-1) Oklahoma and (7-1) Oklahoma State. This will cause seperation within the Big 12 and move a 1-loss team to the 2-loss team group. Other Games of interest are: (8-0) Georgia playing (6-2) South Carolina, (8-0) Alabama playing (6-2) LSU, (7-0) Miami (Fla.) playing (7-1) Virginia Tech, (7-1) Notre Dame playing (5-3) Wake Forest, (7-1) Penn State playing (6-2) Michigan State, (7-1) Toledo playing (6-2) Northern Illinois and on a short week on Thursday Night, (7-1) Clemson playing (6-2) North Carolina State, (7-2) USC playing (6-2) Arizona, (7-2) Washington State playing (6-2) Stanford, (6-2, and Marshall playing (5-3) Florida Atlanitc. Wonder which game ESPN College Game Day will attend. This one is obvious, ESPN CGD will set set up shop for the Alabama/LSU match up.

Below are my rankings for college football at the FBS level for the 2017 season:

A B C D E F
1 WISCONSIN (8-0) (.423) 105 (.480) 103 (.333) 128 (.458) 19
2 GEORGIA (8-0) (.696) 14 (.605) 18 (.415) 116 (.476) 13
3 ALABAMA (8-0) (.542) 66 (.545) 62 (.385) 122 (.598) 2
4 MIAMI FLA. (7-0) (.826) 1 (.568) 49 (.441) 106 (.404) 46
5 CENTRAL FLORIDA (7-0) (.591) 46 (.565) 52 (.472) 90 (.629) 1
6 NOTRE DAME (7-1) (.543) 65 (.639) 7 (.839) 1 (.447) 24
7 OKLAHOMA STATE (7-1) (.360) 118 (.485) 99 (.467) 98 (.517) 7
8 OKLAHOMA (7-1) (.400) 110 (.495) 96 (.467) 97 (.553) 3
9 OHIO STATE (7-1) (.667) 18 (.583) 34 (.444) 104 (.552) 4
10 PENN STATE (7-1) (.520) 72 (.583) 36 (.533) 42 (.463) 16
11 TOLEDO (7-1) (.435) 100 (.466) 107 (.515) 53 (.523) 6
12 CLEMSON (7-1) (.583) 51 (.591) 29 (.525) 52 (.364) 60
13 TCU (7-1) (.563) 56 (.534) 71 (.467) 96 (.414) 41
14 WASHINGTON (7-1) (.500) 77 (.522) 80 (.400) 118 (.490) 9
15 MEMPHIS (7-1) (.478) 89 (.512) 85 (.500) 70 (.461) 17
16 VIRGINIA TECH (7-1) (.375) 115 (.511) 87 (.488) 78 (.421) 34
17 SOUTH FLORIDA (7-1) (.200) 129 (.360) 130 (.371) 124 (.430) 31
18 USC (7-2) (.667) 19 (.570) 42 (.449) 102 (.403) 48
19 SAN DIEGO STATE (7-2) (.667) 20 (.472) 105 (.432) 111 (.360) 64
20 WASHINGTON STATE (7-2) (.438) 99 (.565) 51 (.480) 87 (.405) 45
21 BOISE STATE (7-2) (.588) 48 (.545) 63 (.553) 32 (.381) 54
22 MARSHALL (7-2) (.406) 109 (.463) 109 (.514) 56 (.356) 68
23 STANDFORD (7-2) (.652) 24 (.574) 44 (.449) 103 (.463) 15
24 MICHIGAN STATE (7-2) (.583) 52 (.604) 19 (.489) 72 (.314) 93
25 MICHIGAN (7-2) (.391) 113 (.568) 48 (.533) 43 (.339) 73

Honorable Mentioned: All are (6-2): Army, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Troy, SMU, North Carolina State, Iowa State, Arizona, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and LSU.

Key: A-Rank Order; B- Team and Current Overall Record; C- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Non-Conference Schedule and Rank within that Categorical Variable; D- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Overall Regular Season Schedule and Rank within that Categorical Variable; E- Percentage Rate of the ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Conference Schedule and Rank; and F- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Offensive Efficiency and Rank within that Categorical Variable.

As of this time of the current college football season there are 39 bowl eligible FBS programs wth six (6) wins or more, and 25 more waiting in the wings with five (5) wins. There are four (4) weeks remaining in the season; there are plenty of opportunities for the 19 four (4) win FBS programs to earn bowl eligibility.

If you plan in using any of my ideas, thoughts or ranking to disucss publically in print, web based media postings or on air debates either in television or radio; please adhere to the APA/MLA polocies and procedures when citing sources.

My book “College Football In The BCS Era The Untold Truth Facts Evidence and Solutions” (Siggelow, 2016); is the published research, The book is available at lulu.com


Alabama Takes Over #1 Ranking


With the ever changing suprises and close calls in college football this season, the rankings will continually change week to week. Alabama (8-0) takes over the number one ranked position this week in my weekly polls. Alabama (8-0) is on a bye week this coming week and could possibly lose their number one ranking in my next poll if any of the grouping of (7-0) FBS programs; Wisconsin, Penn State, Georgia, TCU and South Florida win this coming weekend.

College football is starting on the back half of the season and we could call this “Amen’s Corner” time in college football. The “Amen’s Corner” of the college football season starts with each game, each possession, the outcomes of other games and hoping for other highly ranked FBS football programs to stumble. If you are one of the eight (8) remaining 0-loss programs, your objective is to remain on course, do not look to far ahead, and maintain attentional focus at the highest level of competition and performance. There are still many games yet to be played, some surprising upsest still on the table to be served and some un-expected FBS programs earning better win-loss records that even the “experts” did not foresee happening. I guess the crystal ball that they are using must be broken.

Here is my next weekly rankings and how I rank the FBS programs in the Top 25:

A B C D E F
1 ALABAMA (8-0) (.619) 38 (.582) 41 (.394) 118 (.598) 1
2 WISCONSIN (7-0) (.391) 111 (.465) 107 (.278) 129 (.482) 10
3 PENN STATE (7-0) (.455) 91 (.560) 55 (.500) 68 (.468) 16
4 GEORGIA (7-0) (.750) 3 (.618) 19 (.400) 116 (.478) 13
5 TCU (7-0) (.500) 77 (.519) 82 (.444) 101 (.459) 21
6 SOUTH FLORIDA (7-0) (.182) 129 (.358) 130 (.375) 124 (.457) 24
7 WASHINGTON STATE (7-0) (.400) 108 (.549) 64 (.439) 106 (.416) 42
8 MIAMI FLA. (6-0) (.800) 3 (.577) 45 (.464) 93 (.455) 26
9 CENTRAL FLORIDA (6-0) (.579) 47 (.564) 52 (.455) 98 (.584) 2
10 NOTRE DAME (6-1) (.524) 72 (.636) 10 (.852) 1 (.455) 25
11 OKLAHOMA STATE (6-1) (.348) 118 (.488) 96 (.472) 90 (.533) 6
12 MARSHALL (6-1) (.419) 102 (.466) 105 (.517) 56 (.368) 61
13 OKLAHOMA (6-1) (.429) 100 (.512) 89 (.472) 89 (.561) 4
14 OHIO STATE (6-1) (.636) 29 (.588) 39 (.444) 99 (.571) 3
15 MICHIGAN STATE (6-1) (.565) 55 (.605) 27 (.472) 86 (.297) 103
16 TOLEDO (6-1) (.409) 104 (.458) 108 (.517) 57 (.516) 7
17 WASHINGTON (6-1) (.571) 49 (.556) 59 (.415) 113 (.477) 14
18 NC STATE (6-1) (.810) 1 (.568) 49 (.378) 123 (.438) 32
19 CLEMSON (6-1) (.565) 56 (.600) 30 (.529) 73 (.376) 58
20 MEMPHIS (6-1) (.500) 78 (.519) 83 (.500) 73 (.446) 30
21 VIRGINIA TECH (6-1) (.409) 103 (.525) 79 (.486) 79 (.436) 33
22 SAN DIEGO STATE (6-2) (.667) 18 (.468) 104 (.419) 112 (.364) 62
23 COLORADO STATE (6-2) (.565) 57 (.451) 114 (.400) 117 (.469) 17
24 ARMY (6-2) (.524) 73 (.425) 120 (.390) 119 (.458) 23
25 OHIO (6-2) (.238) 127 (.361) 129 (.433) 107 (.474) 15

Key: A-Rank Order; B- Team and Current Overall Record; C- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Non-Conference Schedule and Rank within that Categorical Variable; D- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Overall Regular Season Schedule and Rank within that Categorical Variable; E- Percentage Rate of the ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Conference Schedule and Rank; and F- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Offensive Efficiency and Rank within that Categorical Variable.

As of this moment, there are 28 Bowl Eligible FBS Programs and 21 waiting in the wings FBS programs currently with 5-wins heading into this week who can earn bowl eligibility. If we examine the bottom of the rankings, there are 3 FBS programs still searching for their first win; Baylor, Georgia Southern and Texas El Paso. Who will get their first win and avoid going (0-12).

These rankings are based upon research and possessing no bias to how each college football team has been ranked. With 6 weeks to go within the college football season, I wonder how it will play out. Many surprizes still in store for this college football season. The college football season is heading onto turn three and starting to take shape

If you plan in using any of my ideas, thoughts or ranking to disucss publically in print, web based media postings or on air debates either in television or radio; please adhere to the APA/MLA polocies and procedures when citing cources.


Penn State Remains Number 1 in Poll


For the second week in a row, Penn State remains number one (1) in my weekly college football poll. Penn State has proven itself thus far, at this point of the season to retain their number one (1) ranking within my poll. Penn State are scheduled on a bye week for this weeek and their number  one (1) will be in jeopardy if any of the (6-0) ranked teams wins the seventh (7th) game. This does not mean that Penn State cannot re-capture their number one (1) status once all the bye weeks have been played out. Please remmeber I rank based upon the use of the professional model theory in which I rank CFB programs 1 through 25, thought out the course of the season.

As the college football season is just about reaching the half way point, there remains many questions that cannot receive answers until the end of the college football regualr season. However, the sports media who are the “experts”, claim they possess the answers to all things that are going to happen within college football. For example, how many so called sports media “experts” used their crystal ball to predict Iowa State to beat Oklahoma this past weekend? Or, how many sports media “experts” predicted that Michigan State would beat Michigan in Ann Arbor? My guess, probably not one of them. It should behoove these sports media “experts” to stop predicting and just analyze once the game is complete.

This week’s rankings will be no different than last weeks based upon what variables I used. However, I have removed two categories and added two new categories. Within my rankings, I have provided statistical analysis in percentage rates, (i.e. numerical data), and then attached a rank order number within that specific categorical variable to assist in evaluation and comprehension for any debate like questions. As the college football season moves forward, there will be considerably less number of same data numbers in percentage rates to avoid the comments of, same percentage rate but different ranking positions.

Before I post my college football Top 25 from this past weekends results, I am curious how the “experienced” and “expert-like” CFP committee will handle end of the season situations such as this: Miami (Fla.) ends the season (11-0), because they lost one game due to an act of God at the beginning of the season? There is nothing published with the selection protocol that REQUIRES that the SEC must be represented in the CFP 4-Team Playoff. The world wont stop if the SEC DOES NOT make the 4-Team Playoff. What happens if Central Florida ends the season at (11-0) and is the only remaining 0-loss program left standing? Does the committee tell Central Florida, Congratulations you have won the bridesmaid prize and cant compete for the $50 Million dollars on the table, the opportunity to compete for the national championship or the four team playoff? These are just some of the tough questions the committee probably has not even thought of, but I have.

And now to the the second rankings:

A B C D E F G
1 PENN STATE (6-0) (.438)94 (.571)62 (.476)83 (.463)24 (22)1
2 GEORGIA(6-0) (.733)11 (.644)20 (.440)20 (.442)34 (17)3
3 SAN DIEGO STATE(6-0) (.563)57 (.417)121 (.353)121 (.429)40 (10)49
4 WASHINGTON(6-0) (.400)105 (.557)71 (.400)112 (.533)6 (16)5
5 CLEMSON(6-0) (.556)64 (.597)44 (.476)82 (.395)57 (17)4
6 WASHINGTON STATE(6-0) (.364)116 (.587)50 (.444)92 (.500)9 (16)6
7 ALABAMA(6-0) (.533)72 (.576)57 (.350)122 (.581)3 (15)8
8 NAVY(5-0) (.565)56 (.576)58 (.471)84 (.483)13 (6)94
9 WISCONSIN(5-0) (.389)108 (.523)87 (.350)125 (.485)12 (14)11
10 TCU(5-0) (.545)69 (.554)73 (.444)94 (.465)23 (10)47
11 SOUTH FLORIDA(5-0) (.167)129 (.361)129 (.389)116 (.456)29 (14)12
12 USC(5-1) (.706)17 (.612)39 (.417)108 (.425)42 (12)27
13 NOTRE DAME(5-1) (.563)58 (.662)13 (.889)1 (.448)33 (12)25
14 OHIO STATE(5-1) (.625)34 (.625)27 (.524)56 (.537)5 (15)9
15 NC STATE(5-1) (.765)8 (.571)59 (.348)126 (.459)26 (6)95
16 AUBURN (5-1) (.600)42 (.627)25 (.476)81 (.450)32 (15)10
17 KENTUCKY(5-1) (.563)59 (.576)56 (.375)118 (.397)54 (13)18
18 VIRGINIA TECH (5-1) (.375)111 (.542)77 (.500)70 (.412)48 (19)2
19 MIAMI (FLA) (4-0) (.733)12 (.586)51 (.467)86 (.471)19 (8)68
20 CENTRAL FLORIDA (4-0) (.643)31 (.586)52 (.526)52 (.608)1 (5)111
21 HOUSTON (4-1) (.524)78 (.569)63 (.526)53 (.338)82 (12)33
22 MARSHALL (4-1) (.417)101 (.448)111 (.500)76 (.344)80 (11)42
23 MICHIGAN STATE (4-1) (.556)65 (.621)30 (.429)100 (.281)109 (13)23
24 OKLAHOMA (4-1) (.471)87 (.548)74 (.500)69 (559)4 (7)83
25 MICHIGAN(4-1) (.375)112 (.619)32 (.600)23 (.347)78 (12)32

Key: A-Rank Order; B- Team and Current Overall Record; C- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Non-Conference Schedule and Rank within that Categorical Variable; D- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Regular Season Schedule and Rank within that Categorical Variable; E- Percentage Rate of the ranked teams Opponents Cumulative Record from their Conference Schedule and Rank; F- Percentage Rate of ranked teams Offensive Efficiency and Rank within that Categorical Variable; and G- Defensive Data Rating based upon that ranked teams ability to string together three Consecutive(3) Successful Defensive Possession Stops(such as a Turnover,  aPunt,  a Turnover on Downs, a Defensive Intercpetion, a Fumble Recovery and or a Defensive Score) within scheduled games. (Three Consecutive Defensive Stops equals 1 Point).

These rankings are based upon research and possessing no bias to how each college football team has been ranked. With 8+ weeks to go within the college football season, I wonder how it will play out. Many surprizes still in store for this college football season. Stay tuned and watch to see what upsets occur as the season concluded.

If you plan in using any of my ideas, thoughts or ranking to disucss publically in print, web based media postings or on air debates either in television or radio; please adhere to the APA/MLA polocies and procedures when citing cources.

 


Penn State #1 in First 2017 CFB Poll


With the (2017) College Football FBS season a quarter of the way complete, its time to start posting my weekly rankings. My weekly rankings are first and foremost posses no bias or favortism. However, are determined based upon statistical analysis, overall records, schedules, scheduled games versus FCS or not, and other statistical data to support the rankings.

What I do not possess, is the crystal ball style of predictons, like the major sports media “experts” from ESPN and FOX. I do not possess any confidence in the ESPN FPI (Football Predictor Indicator) system, because it possesses no merit in accuracy or ability to possess some form of confidence in the use of the system. It seems that every week the sports media of ESPN and FOX keep changing their minds on who will win the current week, who the Top 4 should be in the CFP (College Football Playoff) and ranking their Top 10 with no true analyitical support, but possessing a bias and favortism. The most interesting aspect of their flip/flop mind changes is it changes each week. From a certified researchers position, we never make predictions without evidence and data to support our questions. Finally, we never predict who will be in th playoffs until all data has been collected which provieds us with enough information to support our rankings and playoff teams.

Within my rankings, I will offer other statistical data that NONE of the ESPN and FOX sports media “experts” collect or even use to support their rankings or cognitive thoughts in debates or in open discussions on set. These sports media members debate or discuss based upon passions or the eye test, not really examining specific data points which should assist in their thoughts. Within my rankings, you may observe many data points which are equal in ranking but ranked differently, its early. Those data points will change as the season progresses week to week.

Week 1 RANKINGS

A B C D E F G H
1 PENN STATE (5-0) NO FCS 3X H 121 (.273) 73(.566) 67(.500) 19(.478)
2 GEORGIA(5-0) FCS BAL 36(.636) 25(.647) 97(.421) 50(.409)
3 SAN DIEGO STATE(5-0) FCS BAL 70(.545) 25(.607) 123(.333) 56(.400)
4 WASHINGTON(5-0) FCS 1X H 119(.286) 124(.392) 123(.333) 5(.548)
5 CLEMSON(5-0) FCS 2X H 56(.583) 42(.615) 63(.500) 46(.412)
6 SOUTH FLORIDA(5-0) FCS 2X H 126(.231) 128(.347) 127(.273) 29(.456)
7 WASHINGTON STATE(5-0) FCS 2X H 123(.250) 54(.596) 79(.471) 12(.507)
8 ALABAMA(5-0) FCS 3X H 113(.250) 50(.600) 112(.357) 1(.633)
9 MICHIGAN(4-0) NO FCS 1X H 78(.500) 31(.635) 46(.538) 53(.404)
10 OKLAHOMA(4-0) NO FCS 1X H 98(.417) 86(.529) 89(.444) 3(.571)
11 NAVY(4-0) NO FCS BAL 91(.467) 74(.558) 114(.333) 35(.438)
12 WISCONSIN(4-0) NO FCS 1X H 114(.333) 75(.558) 115(.333) 18(.481)
13 TCU(4-0) FCS 1X H 65(.571) 58(.587) 86(.444) 11(.528)
14 UTAH(4-0) FCS 1X H 130(.222) 47(.611) 29(.588) 28(.459)
15 OKLAHOMA STATE(4-1) NO FCS 1X A 124(.250) 97(.490) 69(.500) 2(.587)
16 NOTRE DAME(4-1) NO FCS 2X H 25(.667) 16(.673) 1(.917) 22(.471)
17 USC(4-1) NO FCS 1X H 71(.545) 44(.614) 106(.375) 47(.412)
18 OHIO STATE(4-1) NO FCS 3X H 37(.636) 24(.648) 60(.500) 9(.530)
19 OREGON(4-1) FCS 1X H 79(.500) 28(.642) 61(.500) 30(.456)
20 LOUISVILLE(4-1) FCS BAL 81(.500) 69(.569) 80(.467) 15(.500)
21 OHIO(4-1) FCS BAL 127(.231) 129(.346) 96(.429) 14(.500)
22 WAKE  FOREST(4-1) FCS 1X A 57(.583) 18(.660) 18(.625) 39(.431)
23 TROY(4-1) FCS BAL 95(.455) 130(.326) 130(.200) 92(.317)
24 NC STATE(4-1) FCS 2X H 13(.727) 51(.596) 107(.375) 33(.440)
25 KENTUCKY(4-1) FCS 2X H 21(.700) 41(.620) 103(.389) 77(.354)

KEY: A- Rank, B-Team and Record, C- FCS Game or Not, D-  Number of Extra or Less Home Games or Balanced Schedule, E- Rank and Percentage Rate of Overall Non-Conference Opponents Cumulative Records, F- Rank and Percentage Rate of Overall Cumulative Records of Scheduled Oppenents Records, G- Rank and Percentage Rate of Overall Cumulative Records of Scheduled Conference Opponents Records, and H- Offensive Rating Efficiency (Number of Times Scored divided by Number of Total Possessions).

Honorable Mentions: Auburn (4-1), Virginia Tech (4-1), Texas A&M (4-1), Duke (4-1), SMU (4-1), Central Florida (3-0), Texas San Antonio (3-0) and Miami (Fla.) (3-0).

As I post my next set of rankings, Columns C and D will be omitted. The rest of the colums will be included.

If you have any questions please feel free to ask or contact me on twitter at cfbpoexpert  If you want to recite and verbalize what you have read on my posting, please follow MLA/APA format and cite your sources by stating where you read the posting.

As the college football season continues, the rankings will be shaken up, there will be more surprises that even the sports media “experts” from ESPN or FOX can’t even predict. No matter what type of crystal ball they possess.

Best of Luck to all FBS programs competing this 2017 season.

 


The Final Poll Rankings Say Alabama #1 and WMU #2


The final poll prior to the release of my “mock” field of 16 team playoff format shows that (12-0) Alabama remains #1 and (12-0) Western Michigan remains #2. This does not indcate that this how they will be seeded in my field of 16. During my review of the “mock” field of 16 teams for my expanded playoff format, 5 have been officially seeded, with 11 spots remaining to seed. With one OFFICIAL week of college football left with conference championship games and scheduled games in the BIG 12 and Sun Belt Conference, there could be some changes within my field of 16 with games remaining and FBS programs who are in the clubhouse at (9-3) could sneak in to my field of 16.

Scheduled games of importance are; Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State, Navy vs. Army, West Virginia vs. Baylor, Troy vs. Georgia Southern, and a few more. An Oklahoma State win vs. Oklahoma could put (9-3) USC in my mock 16 team playoff seedings, as they are just on the outside looking in for my field of 16. Both South Alabama and Louisiana-Lafayette couls still earn bowl eligibility if they win this Saturday to earn their 6th win. Both of those wins would make a total of bowl eligible programs at 78, with 11 to 13 FBS programs with (5-7) records to be reviewed for any open bowl slots to be filled.

There was some minor changes in this weeks polls with ranked programs from last weeks rankings. Within my weekly rankings this week, there are 5 Big 10 programs and 1 SEC program ranked. This tells me that the best FBS conference this season belongs to the Big 10 this season. When you read the rankings , please be aware of the extra data points in how they are used to make an assessment. Not a subjective assessment, but a quantitative assessment to assist in ranking and seeding. And now for this weeks rankings.

RANK CONF TEAM RECORD OPP W/L OPP % CONF W/L CONF %
1 SEC ALABAMA (12-0) (76-55) 0.580 (30-34) 0.469
2 MAC WESTERN MICHIGAN (12-0) (54-77) 0.412 (27-37) 0.422
3 B10 OHIO STATE (11-1) (84-59) 0.587 (41-40) 0.506
4 ACC CLEMSON (11-1) (79-52) 0.603 (33-31) 0.516
5 P12 WASHINGTON (11-1) (66-64) 0.508 (36-45) 0.444
6 B10 MICHIGAN (10-2) (81-64) 0.559 (39-42) 0.481
7 B10 WISCONSIN (10-2) (76-66) 0.535 (41-40) 0.506
8 B10 PENN STATE (10-2) (77-67) 0.535 (35-46) 0.432
9 MWC BOISE STATE (10-2) (74-70) 0.514 (32-32) 0.500
10 P12 COLORADO (10-2) (80-64) 0.556 (41-49) 0.456
11 AAC SOUTH FLORIDA (10-2) (65-66) 0.496 (29-35) 0.453
12 B12 OKLAHOMA (9-2) (67-60) 0.528 (27-41) 0.397
13 AAC NAVY (9-2) (64-56) 0.533 (29-35) 0.453
14 B12 WEST VIRGINIA (9-2) (58-58) 0.500 (33-35) 0.458
15 B12 OKLAHOMA STATE (9-2) (57-59) 0.491 (27-41) 0.397
16 SBC TROY (9-2) (54-60) 0.474 (24-26) 0.48
17 P12 USC (9-3) (78-66) 0.542 (37-44) 0.457
18 B10 NEBRASKA (9-3) (74-70) 0.514 (41-40) 0.506
19 P12 STANFORD (9-3) (72-71) 0.503 (41-40) 0.506
20 SBC APPLACHIAN STATE (9-3) (67-69) 0.493 (24-32) 0.429
21 ACC LOUISVILLE (9-3) (71-73) 0.493 (24-20) 0.375
22 ACC FLORIDA STATE (9-3) (84-47) 0.641 (34-30) 0.531
23 AAC HOUSTON (9-3) (68-61) 0.527 (28-36) 0.438
24 CUSA WESTERN KENTUCKY (9-3) (67-65) 0.508 (31-33) 0.484
25 MWC AIR FORCE (9-3) (65-65) 0.500 (31-33) 0.484

Next week, I will post my weekly rankings and the “mock” fictional 16 team playoff brackets in what could be in the future of college football.

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Alabama #1 in Rankings, but #2 In Mock 16 Team Playoff Rank


Alabama remains the #1 ranked FBS program in my weekly rankings, but is seeded #2 in my early MOCK/Fictional 16 Team Playoff Model. The Broncos from Western Michigan are ranked and seeeded opposite of Alabama at #2 and #1. The first order of business, is can both Alabama and Western Michigan remain the only 0-loss programs left standing after the 12regular season game schedule is complete? Research supports and states that on average there are (2.62) 0-loss programs per each FBS season. We have one week remaining in the FBS regular season. Alabama (11-0) hosts (8-3) Auburn, while (11-0) Western Michigan host (9-2) Toledo. Both games are not easy games to win as Alabama and Western Michigan look to stay un-defeated. We shall see which one of these two stay at 0-loss or who falls into the 1-loss group.

Weekly rankings and seeding criteria are different in relationship to how each assigned ranking and seeded number is applied to each FBS program. The playoff seeding rank is a quantifiable process based upon research and multiple quantifiable variables which are standardized and used for all FBS programs. This weeks Playoff (PO) seeded positions are not 100% accurate, but a quick look at where the seeding of the mock field of 16 would be seeded. Preliminary seedings indicates some great first round games. Looking quickly at the games we would possibly have are ; Alabama hosting Houston, Western Michigan hosting Oklahoma State, Boise State hosting South Florida, Ohio State hosting Colorado, Michigan hosting Nebraska, Clemson hosting Wisconsin, Washington hosting Louisville and Penn State hosting Oklahoma. I can guarentee you all of those games would be exciting and SOLD OUT.

Currently, 65 FBS programs are bowl eligible with another 18 FBS programs still eligible to become bowl eligible with 5-wins and 1 or 2 games remaining on the FBS season. If all 18 eligible FBS programs win their last games then, the total number of bowl eligible FBS programs would be at 83 and no need for any (5-7) program to be considered for any open bowl spots. The last week of college football will be entertaining to watch all weekend long, starting with 3 MAC games on Tuesday night and concluding with UMass and Hawaii on Saturday.

On to this weeks rankings:

RANK CONF TEAM RECORD OPP W/L OPP % CONF W/L CONF % PO SEED
1 SEC ALABAMA (11-0) (63-46) 0.578 (22-27) 0.449 2
2 MAC WESTERN MICHIGAN (11-0) (42-68) 0.382 (18-31) 0.367 1
3 B10 OHIO STATE (10-1) (67-54) 0.554 (28-34) 0.452 4
4 B10 MICHIGAN (10-1) (63-59) 0.516 (25-37) 0.403 5
5 MWC BOISE STATE (10-1) (58-63) 0.479 (25-26) 0.490 3
6 ACC CLEMSON (10-1) (67-42) 0.615 (30-29) 0.508 6
7 P12 WASHINGTON (10-1) (52-56) 0.481 (26-40) 0.394 7
8 B10 PENN STATE (9-2) (68-53) 0.562 (30-33) 0.476 8
9 B10 WISCONSIN (9-2) (64-56) 0.533 (33-31) 0.516 11
10 B12 OKLAHOMA (9-2) (62-55) 0.530 (23-37) 0.383 9
11 B10 NEBRASKA (9-2) (61-60) 0.504 (30-34) 0.469 12
12 ACC LOUISVILLE (9-2) (60-61) 0.496 (22-36) 0.379 10
13 P12 COLORADO (9-2) (67-54) 0.554 (34-41) 0.453 13
14 AAC HOUSTON (9-2) (57-51) 0.528 (20-29) 0.408 15
15 AAC SOUTH FLORIDA (9-2) (54-55) 0.495 (22-27) 0.449 14
16 B12 OKLAHOMA STATE (9-2) (52-54) 0.491 (23-37) 0.383 16
17 MWC SAN DIEGO STATE (9-2) (41-69) 0.373 (18-33) 0.353
18 SEC FLORIDA (8-2) (55-50) 0.524 (24-34) 0.414
19 AAC NAVY (8-2) (54-45) 0.545 (22-26) 0.458
20 B12 WEST VIRGINIA (8-2) (50-47) 0.515 (28-26) 0.519
21 SBC TROY (8-2) (48-47) 0.505 (22-16) 0.579
22 P12 USC (8-3) (68-53) 0.562 (33-40) 0.452
23 P12 STANFORD (8-3) (62-58) 0.517 (36-37) 0.493
24 SBC APPLACHIAN STATE (8-3) (59-58) 0.504 (19-26) 0.422
25 SEC TENNESSEEE (8-3) (72-37) 0.661 (29-24) 0.547

 

Key:

Record- Team Overall Win Loss Seasonal Record

OPP W/L Record- The Combined Overal W/L Record of ALL Scheduled FBS programs that you played to this point in the season.

OPP %- The W/L Percentage Rate of the combined OPP W/L Records.

CONF W/L Record- The Combined Overall W/L Record of Scheduled FBS Conference Opponents ONLY, already played to this poing in the season.

PO Seed- Current Mock Playoff Seeding in my ficticious 16-Team Playoff Format. This seed number is not accurate or solidified until the completion of the 12-Games FBS season is complete.

 

If you have any questions, please contact me via twitter @cfbpoexpert