Final 2017 MOCK CFB Playoff Pairings For Field Of 16


The 2017 College Football season has come to it’s regular season conclusion, all except for the Army/Navy game this weekend. When the college football season draws to a conclusion, this sport possesses a post season events like none other to end the calendar year. They call it bowl season and the College Football Playoffs. This is reletively a new tradition that was started in (1996) with a two team playoff format called the BCS. That was suppose to be the “best” way to determine college football’s national champion. However, after a 12-year run, it was determined that the BCS system was a bifurcated system and many were calling for expanding the playoffs. The decision to only select two FBS teams to compete became tougher, because other FBS programs with similar or better records were left out and did not know the reason why. The BCS system ran its course, which allowed the power brokers of college fooball, Mike Slive, Bill Hancock, ESPN and a few other big name college football commissioners; decided to expand the college football playoff to four teams. Let’s expand to four teams and guess what, lets have a committee of “experts” select the four teams, develop criteria, change the criteria, not sure which criteria to use, have committee members who need to be excused from the selection process due to the fact that they are related to a member on the football team or represent that school.

This is where we are now in its early stages, a four team college football playoff (CFP) and after 4 years of this new tradition, the fans are ready for expansion and the “sports media experts” are already talking about expanding the playoffs as a topic, but with no real crystal clear cognitive thoughts on how to explain their reasoning. Becuase they believe they are the “experts” with a platform and voice with microphone or television camera, makes them more knowledgeable then someone with a degree, authored a book, performed research and already investigated the expanded the college football playoff concept. I believe that college football at the FBS level of play, under the NCAA blue logo and allows all FBS members a fair, equal and just opportunity to compete for the $50 MIllions dollars at stake, the gold statue and the notoriety that comes along with winning the national championship and being called a “National Champion” in college football at the highets level.

For the past 10+ years now I have performed a MOCK selection and seeding my field of 16 for college football at the FBS level. I started with the 1996 college football season, and continues to seed and select the current and future college football season. The reason why, is to prove that an expanded playof format can be implimented at this level of college athletics. If I can demonstrate that an expanded playoff format can be implimented based upon research, selection and seeding based upon criteria, then this would provide me with strategic positioning. I developed a ranking and selection system which is based upon the current season, many categorical variables, examines the current scheduled season and developed criterion on how each FBS teams should be ranked. I possess no biases and I treat each FBS team as equals. All playing under the same rules. For those who are going to ask, how do you rank, seed and select for your MOCK field of 16?  I use the professional model theory to rank, seed and select my field of 16. I have been performimg MOCK playoff fields since (2007). Yes, it can be done ranking 1 through 130 FBS teams with not worrying about conference affiliation or member name. Each FBS team is ranked by the criterion in which I developed. My system is more accurate and provides a better playoff picture allowing more FBS programs a playoff opportunity without eliminating any bowl games.

From what my research has discovered, is that every 0-loss team and 1-loss team at the end of the regular season would make the field of 16. All 2-loss programs have an 83% success rate of making my mock field of 16. Yes, it is possible for a 3-loss team to make my field of 16 but only at a 38% chance. That means, that during the course of the college football season, that any FBS team does not have to worry about losing 1 game or requiring them to complete the season with no losses in any games. My expanded playoff format of 16 would significantly decreases emotional and mental pressure from both coaches and players to end the season at 0-losses and placing the fate of their playoff hopes in the hands of a subjective, Democritusly driven and biofurcated system. A loss is a loss. A win is a win. There are no bad losses or good losses. No need to split hairs and try to scrutinze or provide an answer to the reason. No need for a committee to select or seed. All the players and coaches would have full comprehension of how the playoff system, format and selection process works.

I will now present my 2017 MOCK playoff field for college football at the FBS level of play, under the NCAA blue logo. ALL FBS teams are eligible to compete under my research, system and theory. The ONLY way an FBS football program is not eligible to compete for my playoff format is if they are UNDER NCAA violations and or sanctions, which automatically eliminates them from competing in post season.

ALL GAMES BELOW start on the First WEEKEND of December and SEEDS 1 THROUGH 8 RECEIVE Home field advantage becaused they earned it based upon data and records earned.

A B C D
16 WASHINGTON (10-2) 1 WISCONSIN (12-0) 80321 $9.5 MIL
9 USC (10-2) 8 MEMPHIS (10-1) 62380 $7.7 MIL
12 SAN DIEGO STATE (10-2) 5 CLEMSON (11-1) 81500 $9.6 MIL
13 TOLEDO (10-2) 4 GEORGIA (11-1) 92746 $10.5 MIL
14 TROY (10-2) 3 OKLAHOMA (11-1) 86112 $10.1 MIL
11 PENN STATE (10-2) 6 ALABAMA (11-1) 101821 $11.6 MIL
10 OHIO STATE (10-2) 7 MIAMI FLA (10-2) 65326 $8.0  MIL
15 AUBURN (10-2) 2 CENTRAL FLORIDA (11-0) 45323 $6.0 MIL

Last Team Out: TCU (10-2)

The breakdown per conference relationship: American Athletic Conference 2, Atlantic Coast Conference 2, Big 10 Conference 3, Big 12 Conference 1, Southeastern Conference 3, Pac 12 Conference 2, Mountain West Conference 1, Mid American Conference 1, Sun Belt Conference 1, Not represented: Conference USA and the Independents. With this format their will be plenty of represnetation, just not the Power Five Conferences.

Estimated revenue possibly generated from these 8 playoff games: $72+ Million Dollars, exlcuding any advertising dollars and television dollars.

GRID EXPLANATION: A- Visiting Team and Record; B- Home Team and Record, (NOTE: I DO NOT COUNT CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES, explanation below); C- Stadium Seating Capacty of the HOME TEAM and D- Estimated Revenue possibly generated by Ticket Sales, Concessions, Parking, Souvenirs and Tax Based Dollars and Ripple effect by these games in that specific area or region of the country that effects businesses.

Conference championship games are only an extra game to help determine who the conference champion is and not automatically scheduled. The conference championship games are earned, not entitled. If my expanded playoff format were to be implimented, then the conference championship games would be replaced by the first round of 16, on the first weekend of December. The second week of December is scheduled for Acadmics Final week. Student Athletes need time to take their final exams to remain eligible as student athletes for the second semester and the bowl season. The winners of the first round of 16 games will move forward to play in first set of bowl games on the third weekend of December when bowl season starts.

Winner of Seed 16 and 1 will play Winner of Seed 8 and 9

Winner of Seed 12 and 5 will play Winner of Seed 13 and 4

Winner of Seed 14 and 3 plays Winner of 11 and 6

Winner of Seed 10 and 7 plays the Winner of Seed 15 and 2

This creates four more games and use of the four early bowl games to add more revenue and more excitement. Keep the bowl game names and game dates in tact but move the bowl game sites to another location to increase seating capcacity. This would create an exponential influx of revenue, advertising dollars and significantly improve the beginning of bowl season with games that possess meaning and purpose. Each of these Quarter-Final Games would more than likely sellout, generate more revenue and fan interest. You do realize that there are 37+ Million college football fans across America.

Once these four games are decided then the four winners advance to the Semi Final Bowl Games and Championship Game which are already in place and sites already established. With this playoff format, the college football season DOES NOT start any earlier than scheduled within the rules and bylaws of the NCAA guidelines and DOES NOT end any later than the college football season that ends now. NO DRASTIC changes.

I believe that the exponential financial growth from an expanded playoff format such as the one I developed, would generate in upwards of $250 MIllion Dollars over the course of the college football playoff format. This is all hypothetical because the power brokers fear a playoff expansion due to the fact they want to control every part of the system.

In conclusion, the playoff system we have now for college football may be better. However, with that said, the committee has a tough job in selecting and seeding four FBS college football teams and making it right. Furthermore, the criterion in which they are to use is always ever changing. There is no one specific criterial process in which they follow. It’s very sad for those FBS programs within the Group of Five Conferences to work so hard, achieve greatness and sometimes end with 0-losses. All to find out that they will NEVER compete for the $50 Million Dollar prize, the gold statue and the notoriety that comes with being called “national champion”. It’s time to seriously think about expanding the playoffs for college footbal and increasing  the number to 8 then 16. Either way 8 and 16 work.

If you plan on using any of my ideas, thoughts or rankings to discuss publically in print, web based media postings or on air debates either in television or radio; please adhere to the APA/MLA policies and procedures when citing sources.

My book “College Football In The BCS Era The Untold Truth Facts Evidence and Solutions” (Siggelow, 2016); is the published research, The book is available at lulu.com

 


College Football Playoff Field of 16 Mock 2107.4


This is the fourth installment of my MOCK college football playoff field of 16 for the FBS level of play. If only the power brokers of college football could be more open minded to assess and evaluate, how this expanded playoff format would be more beneficial to the the fans of college football and the exponential potential in generating more revenue, then college football would truly possess a real “National Champion”.

If you have followed along with my MOCK field of 16 as I have posted them throughout the course of this FBS season, you can admire the changes from week to week, in how the games have become more interesting as the season winds down. I believe that this type of playoff format would make for better entertainment, excitement and causes confusion amongst the television media on which game to show to the fans who cannot be in attendance. All 8 of these games would make for great television, viewership and media attention.

At this current time ONLY USC at (10-2) is in the clubhouse and has at least secured one (1) of the sixteen (16) seeds within my expanded playoff format for college football. USC’s actual seed placement cannot be determined until the regular season of college football is completed and at least all playoff possibilities are eliminated. This last week of college football is going to be very interesting, exciting and possible upsets.

This is how the field of 16 would be seeded if the season were to have concluded this past weekend and the playoffs starting this following weekend:

16 SEED TOLEDO (9-2) AT 1 SEED WISCONSIN (11-0)

9 SEED MEMPHIS (9-1) AT 8 SEED USC (10-2)

12 BOISE STATE (9-2) AT 5 SEED OKLAHOMA (10-1)

13 SEED OHIO STATE (9-2) AT 4 SEED CENTRAL FLORIDA (10-0)

14 SEED PENN STATE (9-2) AT 3 SEED MIAMI FLA. (9-0)

11 SEED NOTRE DAME (9-2) AT 6 SEED GEORGIA (10-1)

10 SEED SOUTH FLORIDA (9-1) AT 7 SEED CLEMSON (10-1)

15 SEED SAN DIEGO STATE (9-2) AT 2 SEED ALABAMA (11-0)

If you examine the playoff pairings; of these 8 games, everyone has potential for excitement and upset potential. Six (6) of the games would have 6 FBS programs traveling some distance to play the games. However, in today’s scheduling of regualr season games; I don’t think traveling would a problem. With an average of 37+ Million fans that attend collge football games annually, I believe each of these games would be SOLD OUT. Can you imagine how much fun, excitement and media coverage the first weekend of December would be for college football with so much at stake.

The breakdown for this field of 16 based upon conference affiliation, numbers per conference, Power Five Conference and Group of Five Conference is; 10 FBS programs from the Power Five Conferences and 6 FBS programs from the Group of Five Conferences. This is a great demonstration of how balance and parity appears during the college football season. ALL Power Five Conferences would possess representation into this field of 16. Is that not what the power brokers want. The opportunity to be part of the playoffs and not left out because of subectivity. Within this playoff mode and pairings, only the Sun Belt Conference would not be represented in this grouping of playoff caliber programs from the Group of Five Conferences. I believe that ALL the Group of Five Conference programs want is the OPPORTUNITY to compete in the playoffs, compete for the $50 Million dollars on the table, the gold statue and the notoriety which comes along with being called ” National Champion”.

As for the breakdown for each conference;  the Power Five Conference breakdown is led by The Big 10, who would possess 3 seeds, the ACC and the SEC would each hold 2 seeds and concluding with the Pac 12 and the Big 12 with 1 representation. Notre Dame would be the only Independent program represented in the playoffs. In addition to those 10 FBS programs, the Group of Five Conferences would be represneted with 3 FBS programs from the American Athletic Conference (AAC), 2 FBS program from the Mountain West Conference (MWC) and 1 from the Mid-American Conference (MAC).

At the conclusion of this weeks games, I willhopefully have enough data and information to publish the final pairings of my MOCK field of 16 for college football. In addition to the final posting, I will even post how the playoffs would be played out in the month long tournament.

If you plan in using any of my ideas, thoughts or ranking to disucss publically in print, web based media postings or on air debates either in television or radio; please adhere to the APA/MLA policies and procedures when citing sources.

My book “College Football In The BCS Era The Untold Truth Facts Evidence and Solutions” (Siggelow, 2016); is the published research, The book is available at lulu.com


CFP Playoff Field of 16 Mock 2017.3


This is the third installment of my MOCK college football playoff field of 16 for the FBS level of play. If only the power brokers of college football could see how this expanded playoff format would be more beneficial to the the fans of college football, then we woudl truly possess a real “National Champion”.

If you have followed along with my MOCK field of 16 as I have posted them throughout the course of this FBS season, you can admire the changes from week to week, in how the games have become more interesting as the season winds down. I believe that this type of playoff format would make for better entertainment and causes confusion amongst the television media on which game to show to the fans who cannot be in attendance. All 8 of these games would make for great television, viewership and media attention.

This is how the field of 16 would be seeded if the season were to have concluded this past weekend and the playoffs starting this following weekend:

16 SEED OHIO STATE (8-2) AT 1 SEED WISCONSIN (10-0)

9 SEED WASHINGTON STATE (9-2) AT 8 SEED USC (9-2)

12 SEED OKLAHOMA STATE (8-2) ST 5 SEED OKLAHOMA (9-1)

13 SEED NOTRE DAME (8-2) AT 4 SEED CENTRAL FLORIDA (9-0)

14 SEED BOISE STATE (8-2) AT 3 SEED MIAMI FLA. (9-0)

11 SEED SOUTH FLORIDA (8-1) AT 6 SEED GEORGIA (9-1)

10 SEED MEMPHIS AT 7 SEED CLEMSON (9-1)

15 SEED MICHIGAN AT 2 SEED ALABAMA (10-0)

If you examine the playoff pairings; of these 8 games, 3 of the games would be conference bragging rights or rematches between top programs. Three (3) of the games would have 3 FBS programs traveling some distance to play the games. However, in today’s scheduling of regualr season games; I don’t think traveling would a problem. With an average of 37+ Million fans that attend collge football games annually, I believe each of these games would be SOLD OUT. Can you imagine how much fun, excitement and media coverage the first weekend of December would be for college football with so much at stake.

The breakdown for the field of 16 based upon conference affiliation, numbers per conference, Power Five Conference and Group of Five Conference is; 12 FBS programs from the Power Five Conferences and 5 FBS programs from the Group of Five Conferences. ALL Power Five Connferences would possess representation into this field of 16. Is that not what the power brokers want. The opportunity to be part of the playoffs and not left out because of subectivity. The remaining 4 playoff spots would be secured by the Group of Five Conferences. I believe that ALL the Group of Five Conference programs want is the OPPORTUNITY to compete in the playoffs, compete for the $50 Million dollars on the table, the gold statue and the notoriety which comes along with being called ” National Champion”.

As for the breakdown for each conference;  the Power Five Conference breakdown is led by The Big 10, who would possess 3 seeds, the ACC, the Big 12, the Pac 12 and the SEC would each hold 2 seeds. Notre Dame would be the only Independent program represented in the playoffs. In addition to those 12 FBS programs, the Group of Five Conferences would be represneted with 3 FBS programs from the American Athletic Conference (AAC) and 1 FBS program from the Mountain West Conference (MWC).

In about two (2) weeks, I will publish the final pairings of my MOCK field of 16 for college football. In addition to the final posting I will even post how the playoffs would be played out in the month long tournament.

If you plan in using any of my ideas, thoughts or ranking to disucss publically in print, web based media postings or on air debates either in television or radio; please adhere to the APA/MLA policies and procedures when citing sources.

My book “College Football In The BCS Era The Untold Truth Facts Evidence and Solutions” (Siggelow, 2016); is the published research, The book is available at lulu.com


CFP Playoffs Field of 16 Mock 2017.2


How the games that are played during the regular season can change the field of 16 in a matter of moments. If you think last weeks field of 16 had some great games, this weeks field of 16 has even better games and rematches. This mock field of 16 for a future college football playoff format,  is what the media won’t speak about yet, but internally want this more than ever. I believe that their are a group of college football coaches at the FBS level who would embrace the college football playoff being expanded. Their thoughts are concurrent with mine. However, my research in my book supports and proves that an expanded field of 16 can be implimented into the FBS level of college football, under the NCAA blue logo, allowing all FBS football programs equal, fair and just opportunity to compete for the National Championship and exponentially generate more revenue for the college athletics.

Here is the second edition of the Mock 2017.2 Field of 16:

Seed 16 Washington State (8-2) at Seed 1 Wisconsin (9-0)

Seed 9 Clemson (8-1) at Seed 8 Toledo (8-1)

Seed 12 Memphis (8-1) at Seed 5 Central Florida (8-0)

Seed 13 South Florida (8-1) at Seed 4 Miami (Fla.) (8-0)

Seed 14 USC (8-2) at Seed 3 Alabama (9-0)

Seed 11 Washington at Seed 6 Notre Dame (8-1)

Seed 10 TCU (8-1) at Seed 7 Oklahoma (8-1)

Seed 15 San Diego State at Seed 2 Georgia (9-0)

This field is well represented by ALL Power Five Conference, Independents and three (3) of the Group of Five Conferenes. The Pac 12 and AAC earned three (3) berths, the SEC, ACC, and the Big 12 earned two (2) berths, and the Big 10, the MAC, the MWC and Notre Dame earned one (1) berth. This is what could be and possibly will be in the future. Please rememebr, each week this will change until the FINAL FIELD of 16.

Each week prior to the final Mock 2017 Field of 16 for college football I will post a new bracket. Once any FBS program earns at least a berth into my Field of 16, but not the exact seeding placement; I will place them in BOLD.  This will notify anyone who reads this blog post that, that FBS program has earned a berth to my field of 16.

If you plan in using any of my ideas, thoughts or ranking to disucss publically in print, web based media postings or on air debates either in television or radio; please adhere to the APA/MLA polocies and procedures when citing sources.

My book “College Football In The BCS Era The Untold Truth Facts Evidence and Solutions” (Siggelow, 2016); is the published research, The book is available at lulu.com


CFP Brackets Released, Field Of 16


If college football possessed an expanded playoff format which included all FBS programs equal and just opportunity to compete for; the $50 Million Dollars at stake, the crystal football trophy and the right to earn and be called a “National Champion”, what would that bracket reveal? Since published  research supports that an expanded college football play can be implimented with a field of 16 FBS programs, then what would the early version of playoff pairings look like.

Here is the MOCK version at this stage of the college football season with the field of 16:

16 Seed Virginia Tech (7-1) at  1 seed Wisconsin (8-0)

9 Seed Ohio State (7-1) at 8 Seed Oklahoma (7-1)

12 Seed Clemson (7-1) at 5 Seed Central Florida (7-0)

13 Seed TCU (7-1) at 4 Seed Miami (Fla) (7-0)

14 Seed Washington (7-1) at 3 Seed Alabama (8-0)

10 Seed Penn State (7-0) at 7 Seed Oklahoma State (7-1)

11 Seed Toledo (7-1) at 6 Seed Notre Dame (7-1)

15 Seed Memphis (7-1) at 2 Seed Georgia (8-0)

The breakdown of this field indicates that 13 FBS programs are from the Power 5 Conferences and 3 FBS programs are from the Group of 5 Conferences. Taking the break down even further, ALL P5 Conferences would have representation within this expanded playoff format; 3 each from the Big 12, Big 10 and ACC, 2 each from the AAC and SEC and 1 representation from the PAC12, Independents, and MAC. This style of an expanded playoff format allows all FBS programs from ALL of the FBS Conferences and Independents, an equal and fair opportunity to compete for the National Championship. All the Group of Five Conference FBS members and the 3 Independent FBS members want, is an opporunity to compete for what’s at stake at the end of the college football season. Just like the other 87 NCAA sponsored Championship Events, all FBS schools are considered to compete for the National Championship. It is only the NCAA ponsored sport of Football, in which ONLY the FBS members from the Group of Five Conferences are NOT considered. The current CFP system and the previous BCS system are based upon an exclusive club membership based upon sports media lable status and not who has earned the right to compete for the “National Championship”.

The CFP committee has a tough time narrowing the field to the four FBS teams they believe should be part of the playoff. Expansion to 16 FBS teams makes it fair for all FBS programs within college football. Time for a change.

As the remaining weeks play out within this 2017 FBS college football season, this MOCK expanded playoff seedings will change.

 

 


2016 FIELD of 16 MOCK CFB PLAYOFF


What an exciting year for College Football. So many great games this 2016 FBS season and so many FBS programs either surprised us, let us down, under performed than expected by the oh so “credible” ESPN FPI system and the experts pre-season analysis and predictions. So, let’s have REALITY tell us how this should work and play out, not “crystal ball” predictions like the sports media use my subjective vested interest in seeding and selecting.

Reality…. Means this really happened the FPI didnt predict it or was right all the time: Oklahoma beats West Virginia, Washington beats Standford, USC beats Washington, Stanford beats USC, Clemson beats Louisville, Penn State beats Ohio State, Ohio State beats Michigan, Michigan beats Penn State, Ohio State beats Oklahoma, Wisconsin beats Nebraska, Michigan beats Colorado, Colorado beats Stanford, Alabama beats USC and many more. Within that last sentence are “cyclical triads”, something the CFP committee does not comprehend or knows how to handle this scenario. If reality were to come into play and use the professional model theory of seeding and selecting, then this is how my “MOCK” 16 team playoff seeding and selection would look like, with crystal clear explanations. I use research and data to determine my seedings and selction, and take into consideration to those who deserve and earned the opportunity to be part of this championship drive process, the $50+ Million dollars on the table, prestige, national accolades, and the earned right to be called National Champion.

This is contingent on Navy beating Army.

#1 Seed Western Michigan (12-0) MAC CHAMP, (54-77) combined overall OPP record, (27-37) combined CONF overall OPP record, played a balance scheudle of 6/6, played 2 NON CONF road games, FCS game, and played on off nights during the course of the season to accomodate ESPN’s $$$. (Western Michigan should be in the CFP 4, but protocols vehemently denies them access)

#2 Seed Alabama (12-0) SEC CHAMP, (76-55), (30-34), FCS game LATE in the season, played 4 more EXTRA Home games in the NON CONF schedule, played in the premier time slots and never had to really change customary behavior patterns on games played and times. All games on TV.

#3 Seed Ohio State (11-1), (84-59), (41-40), played 1 NON CONF game on the road AT OKLAHOMA and WON, NO FCS game, played in the best FBS CONF this year in the Big 10, plus was (3-1) record vs. other teams ranked in my top 16, W vs. Michigan Wvs. Oklahoma, W vs. Wisconsin, L vs. Penn State.

#4 Seed Clemson (11-1) ACC CHAMP, (79-52), (33-31), played 1 NON CONF game on the road AT AUBURN and WON, played and W vs. Louisville.

#5 Seed Washington (11-1) PAC 12 CHAMP, (66-64), (36-45), (1-1) record vs. those seeded CFB teams. W vs Stanford, L vs. USC

#6 Seed Michigan (11-1), (81-64), (39-42), (3-1) record vs. those seeded CFB teams, W vs Penn State, W vs. Wisconsin, W vs.Colorado, L vs Ohio State, NO FCS game, played in best CFB CONF this year the Big 10.

#7 seed Penn State (10-2) Big 10 CHAMP, (77-67), (35-46), (1-1) record vs. those seeded CFB teams, W vs. Ohio State, L vs. Michigan, NO FCS game, played in best CFB CONF this year the Big 10.

#8 Seed Oklahoma (10-2), Big 12 CHAMP, (78-66), (36-45), (1-1) record vs. those seeded CFB teams, W vs. West Virginia, L vs. Ohio State, NO FCS game.

#9 Seed Boise State (10-2), (75-70), (32-32), NO FCS game, W vs Washington State.

#10 Seed Wisconsin (10-2), (76-67), (41-40), NO FCS game, (0-2) record vs. those seeded CFB teams, L vs. Ohio State, L vs. Michigan.

#11 Seed Colorado (10-2), (80-64), (35-46),  (1-2) record vs. those seeded CFB teams, W vs. Standford, L vs. Michigan, L vs. USC.

#12 Seed South Florida (10-2), (65-66), (29-35), (1-0) record vs. those seeded CFB teams, W vs. Navy.

#13 Seed Navy (10-2), (70-56), (29-35), (0-1) vs. those seeded CFB teams, L vs. South Florida.

#14 Seed West Virginia (10-2), (66-66), (29-35), (0-1) vs. those seeded CFB teams, L vs Oklahoma, NO FCS game.

#15 Seed USC (9-3), (78-66), (37-44), (2-2) vs. those seeded CFB teams, W vs. Washington, W vs. Colorado, L vs. Alabama, L vs. Stanford, NO FCS game.

#16 Seed Stanford (9-3), (73-71), (41-40), (1-2) vs. those seeded CFB teams, W vs USC, L vs. Washington, L vs. Colorado, NO FCS game.

 

Playoff seedings and the remaining schedule of tournament:

1st Weekend of December

#1 (12-0) Western Michigan Hosting #16 (9-3) Stanford

#8 (10-2) Oklahoma Hosting #9 (10-2) Boise State

#5 (11-1) Washington Hosting # #12 (10-2) South Florida

#4 (11-1) Clemson Hosting #13 (10-2) Navy

#3 (11-1) Ohio State Hosting #14 (10-2 ) West Virginia

#6  (11-1) Michigan Hosting # 11 (10-2) Colorado

#7 (10-2) Penn State Hosting #10 (10-2) Wisconsin

#2 (12-0) Alabama Hosting #15 (9-3) USC

3rd weekend of Decemeber; Satruday Decemer 17: First Four Bowl Games (Quaterfinals)

Camelia Bowl  (2) Winners from the games of  #1 and #16 vs. #8 and #9

Cure Bowl  (2) Winners from the games of  #5 and #12 vs. #4 and #13

New Mexico Bowl (2) Winners from the games of #3 and #14 vs. #6 and #11

New Orleans Bowl (2) Winners from the games of #7 and #10 vs. #2 and #15

Semifinal Games: January 1 New Years Day (both games played on this date)

Semifinal Game 1: Fiesta Bowl: Camelia Bowl Winner vs. Cure Bowl Winner

Semifinal Game 2: Sugar Bowl: New Mexico Bowl Winner vs. New Orleans Bowl Winner

Championship Game: January 9

Championship Game: Sugar Bowl: Last two left…..

If you have any questions about this “MOCK” field of 16, please contact me, share this link and more.

Please follow me on twitter at cfbpoexpert. If you read and talk about my posting, please remember to site the source and give proper APA/MLA citings.


2015 Field of 16 for College Football


During the coursse of my research of 8 years, I have been selecting a mock expanded college football playoff bracket which includes a field of 16. I have selected and seeded the mock field of 16 from the 1996 thourgh 2015 FBS seasons. The criteria I used is based on the professional model theory, plus other categorical variables which are quantitative, measureable and eye tests is omitted. The eye test is purely subjective and possesses no true validity in ranking criteria. This group of 16 FBS programs has earned their spots. The seeding process is based upon multiple variables plus the professional model theory. There is no one in the room with me when I seed and select. Biases are set aside and each of these FBS teams that are ranked at this level are given fair, just and equal consideration. That’s the way it should be.

Remember the criteria I use is that those FBS teams seeded one (1) through eight (8) host the first round games in their stadiums and ome sites. They earned their home field advantage playoff game. This field of sixteen (16) is comprised of thirteen (13) Power 5 members and three (3) Group of 5 members.  This system offers ALL 128 FBS members opportunity to compete for the FBS NCAA National Championship. The current and past system is not fair to all 128 FBS members.

#1 Clemson (12-0) vs. #16 Oklahoma State (10-2)

#8 North Carolina (11-1) vs. #9 Stanford (11-1)

#5 Ohio State (11-1) vs. #12 Temple (10-2)

#4 Michigan State (11-1) vs #13 Western Kentucky (10-2)

#3 Oklahoma (11-1) vs #14 Northweester (10-2)

#6 Houston (11-1) vs. #11 Florida (10-2)

#7 Alabama (11-1) vs. #10 Notre Dame (10-2)

#2 Iowa (12-0) vs. #15 Florida State (10-2)

Seeding Explanations:

#1 Clemson (12-0) overall, (67-64) vs. scheduled opponents combined records (2-0) vs. ranked in Top 16, (0-0) vs. seeded above them, 1 FCS Game and 1 Away Non Conf. Games.

#2 Iowa (12-0) overall,  (57-75) vs. scheduled opponents combined records, (1-0) vs. ranked T16, (0-0) vs. seeded above them, 1 FCS Game and 1 Away Non Conf. Games.

#3 Oklahoma (11-1) overall,  (76-64) vs. scheduled opponents combined records, (3-0) vs. ranked in T16,  (0-0) vs. seeded above them, 0 FCS Game, and 1 Away Non Conf. Games.

#4 Michigan State (11-1) overall, (70-61) vs. scheduled opponents combined  records,  (1-0) vs. ranked in T16, (0-0) vs. seeded above them, 0 FCS Game, and  1 Away Non Conf Games.

#5 Ohio State (11-1) overall, (73-71) vs. scheduled opponents combined records, (0-1) vs. ranked in T16, (0-1) vs. seeded above them, 0 FCS Game and 1 Away Non-Conf. Games.

#6 Houston (11-1) overall, (56-74) vs. scheduled opponents combined  records, (1-0) vs. ranked in T16, (0-0) vs. seeded above them, 1 FCS Game and 1 Away Non Conf. Games.

#7 Alabama (11-1) overall (81-50) vs. scheduled oppenets combined records, (0-0) vs. ranked in T16, (0-0) vs.seeded above them, 1 FCS Game and 0 Away Non Conf. Games.(neutral site game DOES NOT COUNT)

#8 North Carolina (11-1) overall, (54-66) vs. scheduled opponents combined records, (0-0) vs. ranked in T16, (0-0) vs. seeded above them, 2 FCS Games and 0 Away Non Conf. Games.

#9 Stanford (10-2) overall, (70-63) vs. scheduled opponents combined records, (1-1) vs. ranked in T16, (0-0) vs. seeded above them, 0 FCS Game and 1 Away Non-Conf. Games.

#10 Notre Dame (10-2) overall, (77-65) vs. scheduled opponents combined records, (1-2) vs ranked in T16, (0-2) vs. seeded above them, 0 FCS Game, and 2 Away Non-Conf. Games.

#11 Florida (10-2) overall, (76-66) vs. scheduled opponents combined records, (0-1) vs. ranked in T16, (0-1) vs.seeded above them, 0 FCS Game, and 0 Away Non-Conf. Games.

#12 Temple (10-2) overall, (62-82) vs. scheduled opponents combined records, (0-1) vs. ranked in T16, (0-1) vs. seeded above them, o FCS Game, and 2 Away Non-Conf. Games.

#13 Western Kentucky (10-2) overall, (64-79) vs. scheduled opponents combined records, (0-0) vs. ranked in T16, (0-0) vs. seeded above them, 0 FCS Game and 3 Away Non-Conf. Games.

#14 Northwestern (10-2) overall, (74-58) vs. scheduled opponents combined records, (0-1) vs. ranked in T16, (0-1) vs. seeded above them, 1 FCS Game and 1 Away Non-Conf. Game.

#15 Florida State (10-2)overall, (68-64) vs. scheduled opponents combined records, (1-1) vs. ranked in T16, (1-1) vs. seeded above them, 1 FCS Game and 1 Away Non-Conf. Game.

#16 Oklahoma State (10-2) overall, (68-64) vs. scheduled oppenents combined records, (0-1) vs. ranked in T16, (0-1) vs. seeded above them, 1 FCS Game and 1 Away Non-Conf. Game.

Those who were evaluated but missed the cut in order:

Appalachian State (10-2) overall, (61-72) vs. scheduled opponents combined records, (0-1) vs. ranked in T16, (0-1) vs.  seeded above them, 1 FCS Game and 2 Away Non-Conf. Games.

Navy (10-2) overall, (70-61) vs. scheduled opponents combined records, (0-2) vs. ranked in T16, (0-2) vs. seeded above them, 1 FCS Game and 1 Away Non-Conf. Game.

TCU (10-2) overall, (65-67) vs. scheduled opponents combined records, (0-2) vs. ranked in T16, (0-2) vs. seeded above them, 1 FCS Game and 1 Away Non-Conf. Game.

Toledo (9-2) overall, (60-72) vs. scheduled opponents combined records, (0-0) vs ranked in T16,(0-0) vs. seeded above them, 0 FCS Game and 0 Away Non-Conf. Game.

Key:

Overall Record- Final record after the regular season is completed. Conference Championship Games DO NOT COUNT. Only 10.6% of the FBS pool play a 13th game to be evaluated by.

VS. Scheduled Opponents- The combined records of the scheduled games on thier FBS Schedule minus (-) any FCS game. FCS program records DO NOT COUNT. FCS is not eligible for the FBS playoffs.

VS. Ranked in Top 16- The record versus those FBS programs ranked in my Top 16.

VS. Seeded Above Them- The record versus those FBS teams already seeded in my field of 16 above your seeded position.

FCS Games- Number of FCS games scheduled during the regular season. These games count overall but held against the FBS program since they should be scheduling FBS programs.

Away Non-Conference Games-Number of Non-Conference Games that were scheduled during the regular season, excluding neutral site games since their is regional home field advantage. The greater the number of Away games scheduled, the greater the risk and reward if you win on the road away from home.

It’s interesting that it takes a committee of twelve (12) to select what they beleive is the best four (4) and I can select a field of sixteen (16) which is fair, just and offers all 128 FBS programs equal opportunity to compete for the national championship. Thus making the statement of being called a true national champion for college football and the financial revenue that comes with that prestiguous honor. You don’t need a committee, your don’t need subjectivity and the Power Brokers and their conference members don’t need to have total access to the $50 Million dollar prize.

To the sports media, If you use any of my postings for your own in comments within your publishings or articles or posts, this includes use of radio and television broadcast’ please use the APA/MLA format and cite the the source.

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here or through twitter at     cfbpoexpert.com

 


The Real College Football Playoff: 2014 Field of 16


The 2014 NCAA/FBS Field of 16 is ready to be announced and WAY before the “SIGNIFICANTLY INEXPERIENCED” CFP committee who are using variables to select with no true criteria, changing their minds on head to head, using a variable of “game control” which possesses no peer reviewed research to be used as a variable of objective matter with credibility. I have also caught the CFP committee chair contradicting himself every week while being interviewed on ESPN every Tuesday for the past 5+ weeks.

I will post 2 ways that the NCAA/FBS field of 16 could resemble. When you review the pairings, I have my own criteria which is researched based, objective, subjective and I possess no bias against any FBS team. I do not possess any agenda nor do I use a made up variable which is not peer reviewed supported. Seeds are earned based upon the professional model theory and how the FBS programs schedule. This would be the first round of games held first weekend of December. Pairings are shown in the traditional 16 team bracket format. The better seeded team, meaning the lower the seed #, you host the first round game.

The only games that have playoff seeding implications are Kansas State vs. Baylor and TCU vs. Iowa State.

IF Kansas State Wins, Baylor Losses and TCU wins

#1 Florida State (12-0) vs. #16 Wisconsin (10-2)

#8 Arizona (10-2) vs. #9 Boise State (10-2)

#5 TCU (11-1) vs. #12 Georgia Tech (10-2)

#4 Marshall (11-1) vs. #13 Kansas State (10-2)

#3 Oregon (11-1) vs. # 14 Baylor (10-2)

#6 Alabama (11-1) vs. #11 Northern Illinois (10-2)

#7 Michigan State (10-2) vs. #10 Colorado State (10-2)

#2 Ohio State (11-1) vs. Mississippi State (10-2)

Missouri (10-2) last team out.

 

IF Kansas State Losses, Baylor Wins and TCU wins

#1 Florida State (12-0) vs. #16 Missouri (10-2)

#8 Michigan State (10-2) vs. Arizona (10-2)

#5 Baylor (11-1) vs. #12 Northern Illinois (10-2)

#4 Marshall (11-1) vs. #13 Georgia Tech (10-2)

#3 Oregon (11-1) vs. #14 Mississippi State (10-2)

#6 TCU (11-1) vs. #11 Colorado State (10-2)

#7 Alabama (11-1) vs. #10 Boise State (10-2)

#2 Ohio State (11-1) vs. #15 Wisconsin (10-2)

Kansas State (9-3) out.

If you have any questions pertaining to my seeds and how I seeded the field of 16. Please contact me via twitter @cfbpoexpert  I look forward to your comments, questions and if you would like to interview me for a segment on college football on your sports radio talk show contact me using the same handle or email cfbpoexpert@gmail.com

On a side note: I have been updating my book statistically,adding more tables, adding 4 new chapters and making some adjustments to the chapters. The target release date is planned for March 2015.


2013 College Football Field of 16 (Fiction), Could be the Future


With the conclusion of the 2013 FBS/NCAA college football season complete, now is the time to announce the fictional field of 16 based upon my research and findings. I know many of you will have issues with how I seeded the field of 16, but please remember the professional model theory, which I used as a basis to seed the field of 16. On a side note, I have been asked by twitter followers; if the 4 team playoff were to start this season, which 4 teams do I think would make the field? After reviewing the pool of FBS/NCAA teams that I believe would be considered and to narrow that field down to just four, my (4) teams would be in no seed order: Florida State, Ohio State, Northern Illinois and Auburn. Teams on the outside looking in: Michigan State, Stanford, Central Florida and Alabama; maybe in that order. That’s just my opinion.

Now to the field of 16. First off remember I do not include conference championship games as part of the regular season. The regular season ends after 12 games. Only 12.8% of the FBS/NCAA football programs compete in a 13th game, those primarily being conference championship games along with Hawaii usually invites an FBS program out at the end of the season for a 13th game in December. What a 13th game on your FBS schedule prior to final exam week a weekend or couple of days in Hawaii. SIGN ME UP!!!. Since ALL of the FBS/NCAA programs do not play or schedule a contractually obligated 13th regular season game or ALL conferences possess a conference championship; then those 13th games cannot be factored in. Conference championship games are earned, not scheduled. For those SEC fans and 30+ Million college football fans, ask yourself this, when the 2013 FBS/NCAA football season schedules were announced, finalized, published, viewable on the World Wide Web in late spring or early summer of 2013; look at the end of your teams or various teams schedule? Someone please tell me or show me who scheduled, meaning those teams have a contractual obligation to play, not forecasting, the conference championship game and whose schedule shows which bowl game they are going to participate in? What many of you fail to comprehend is the conference championship game and bowl games are earned extra games, not automatically scheduled. In addition to that previous comment, MANY college football fans, audience, sports reporters and the Expert Sports Programming network fail to comprehend is that the BCS computerized system accounts for the 13th game for those who played a 13th game but possess a negative factor or accountability to those NCAA/FBS programs who do not play a 13th game to counteract the data and not skew the numbers. If I remember my math and statistical analysis from my Master class, uneven data when comparing 2 teams or a group of teams and data makes for a non-interpretive information.13 does not equal 12, a.k.a conference championship games being the 13th game and the regular season ending with a 12th game.

Yes, there were some great, exciting and upset conference championship games yesterday from what I could view, while I was on break at work yesterday during my 16 hours, but I cannot factor those results into my fictional field of 16 based upon research and historical factors. And now for the selection, seeds and where the big games will be played.

Better seeded teams host 1st round games because they EARNED it, after that its all neutral bowl game sites.

GROUP A (First Round) 1st weekend in December

#1 Northern Illinois (12-0) vs. #16 Oregon (10-2)-winner advances to the New Mexico Bowl

#8 Auburn (11-1) vs. #9 Alabama (11-1) (Rematch 1)-winner advances to New Mexico Bowl

#5 Louisville (11-1) vs. #12 Oklahoma State (10-2)-winner advances to Idaho Potato Bowl

#4 Central Florida (11-1) vs. #13 South Carolina (10-2) (Rematch 2)-winner advances to Idaho Potato Bowl

GROUP B

#3 Florida State (12-0) vs. #14 Ball State (10-2)-winner advances to Poinsetta Bowl

#6 Missouri (11-1) vs. #11 Fresno State (10-1)-winner advances to Poinsetta Bowl

#7 Michigan State (11-1) vs. #10 Baylor (11-1)-winner advances Beef O Brady Bowl

#2 Ohio State (12-0) vs. #15 Stanford (10-2)-winner advances to Beef O Brady Bowl

Second week of December off for final exam week.

Round 2 Bowl Games played 3rd weekend of December like they are usually.

Group A

Winner from #1 and #16 vs. Winner from #8 and #9 in the New Mexico Bowl- winner advances to the Rose Bowl

Winner from #5 and #12 vs. Winner from #4 and #13 in the Idaho Potato Bowl- winner advances to the Rose Bowl

Group B

Winner from #3 and #14 vs. winner from #6 and #11 in the Poinsetta Bowl- winner advances to the Fiesta Bowl

Winner from #7 and #10 vs. winner from #2 and #15 in the Beef O Brady Bowl- winner advances to Fiesta Bowl

Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl played on the same day on New Years Day.

NCAA/FBS College Football Championship Game played 7 days later in the Orange Bowl with the 2 remaining programs.

If you break down my brackets this is how the data looks:

13 NCAA/BCS/AQ programs were selected and 3 NCAA/NON-BCS/NON-AQ programs were selected. All 125 FBS/NCAA programs have an equal opportunity to make the field of 16, with the exception of those FBS/NCAA programs placed on probation by the NCAA for rules violations and completion of their investigation.

ALL 0-loss and 1-loss teams made the field and only (35) of the (8) 2-loss teams were selected and the remaining (3) were considered but on the outside looking in (Clemson, Duke and Arizona State). Sounds familiar, better get use to it next year.

Conference representation and well balanced.

SEC received 4: Auburn, Alabama, Missouri and South Carolina

Big 10 received 2: Ohio State and Michigan State

Big 12 received 2: Baylor and Oklahoma State

PAC 12 received 2: Stanford and Oregon

American received 2: Central Florida and Louisville

MAC received 2: Northern Illinois and Ball State

ACC received 1: Florida State

Mountain West received 1: Fresno State

8 of the 10 conference were represented. Only the Sun Belt and Conference USA were not selected. Closets teams from those (2) conferences to be considered were Rice at (9-3) and Louisiana Lafayette at (8-4).

Imagine if this were true……..and reality…..the fun we would have watching college football for 5+ weeks.

Please be respectful of my selections, because this time next year, you the fans and the college football audience are relying on an very in-experienced group of 13 to select 3.1% of the field and some programs will be on the outside looking in. I respect that many of you may have issue with, dislike, difference of opinions on the how I seeded the field of 16, remember this is FICTIONAL, based upon my experience of reviewing thousands upon thousands of data points. At least I am fair and honest with my selection and on one paid me $$, called me on the phone, sent me an email to consider or lobby for their FBS/NCAA program over another. This is totally un-biased. This could be a possibility in the future for college football. I could also sense that all of you would agree that this is a great field of 16 and the FBS teams I left on the outside looking in you would agree with. This type of college football playoff format would  more than make college football in December and through the New Year, VERY enjoyable to watch and root for some great games and or even rematches. I did a selection process in only hours today, in which the future college football playoff committee will take days to complete, debate and publish. I even published this before ESPN could have their selection show.

If you have any questions or would like to pick who would advance, please tweet me @cfbpoexpert or leave a comment.

 

 

 

 

 


FBS: The Field of 16


Do you ever wonder what college football would be like at the FBS level if there were a field of 16? Throughout the exhaustive research of college football at the FBS level, I was able to develop a FAIR, measurable and non-subjective criteria to determine who would make the field of 16 FBS playoffs. My system eliminates computer systems and human voters who possess vested interest and bias who can manipulate the rankings when large sums of money becomes the ultimate mission. The players and coaches are the ones who make the cognitive decisions on the field that ultimately creates their overall record and assists in determining their seeding spot if selected into the field of 16. There are also other measurable criteria that assists in seeding the field of 16 which I will not divulge at this moment and time. What I can say is that research and peer reviewed journal articles assisted in the thought process of designing the 16 team traditional playoff format. All I can say is some decisions are easy, some are challenging needing investigative analysis and some are very difficult to make.

NOTE: all games played as conference championship games were not taken into account due to the fact that ALL conferences do not possess a championship game, in addition to that only 10% of  the FBS plays a 13th game. The regular season ends after the 12th game of the season is complete. There were no favortism or bias into the seeding of these 16 FBS programs, the FBS programs earned these seeds.

This is how a traditional style bracketed playoff format could look like if the FBS/NCAA possessed a 16 team playoff.

1st Weekend of DECEMBER(higher ranked seeds Host and are Home)

#1 Notre Dame (12-0) vs #16 Clemson (10-2)

#8 Northern Illinois (11-1) vs. #9 Stanford (10-2)

#5 Florida (11-1) vs. #12 South Carolina (10-2)

#4 Georgia (11-1) vs. # 13 LSU (10-2)

#3 Oregon (11-2) vs. #14 Utah State (10-2)

#6 Alabama (10-2) vs.#11 Oklahoma (10-2)

#7 Kansas State (11-1) vs. #10 Boise State (10-2)

#2 Kent State (11-1) vs. #15 San Jose State (10-2)

3rd weekend of DECEMBER(neutral sites)

POD A

ND, CLEM, NIU  and STAN-  2 winners play at New Mexico Bowl.

FLA, SC, GA and LSU- 2 winners play at Idaho Potato Bowl.

POD B

ORG, UTST, ALA and OU- 2 winners play at Poinsetta Bowl.

KST, BOIST, KENST, and SJST- 2 winners play at Beef O Brady Bowl.

NEW YEARS DAY

POD A- final 2 remaining winners play at Orange Bowl.

POD B- final 2 remaining winner play at Rose Bowl.

JAN 7th

Championship Game with POD A  remaining winner vs POD B remaining winner at the Sugar Bowl.

Imagine the excitement, fans, media coverage and the revenue this would generate in regions across the country. The taxed based dollars would generate revenue and ALL playoff games would be SOLD OUT, no empty seats.

For those who are asking why my (10-2) team did not earn a seed, here is the best explanation without getting to deep. Both Texas A&M and Florida State only played 10 FBS games. FCS programs are in-eligible to play for the FBS championship. Yes, some seeded programs played 1 FCS program, so whats the difference? They won more games and the FCS game they played were used as analysis to assist in the seeding process with like records. Best suggestion, schedule FBS programs or only schedule 1 FCS program and/or schedule FCS programs that have made the FBS commitment in the coming years. Louisville’s Non-Conference schedule was not as credible with a combined record of (12-36). Nebrasks was the final decision on not making the field of 16. Nebraska possessed a stronger Non-Conference combined record of (18-18), but other FBS programs seeded earned a record versus those already seeded and played a tougher non-conference schedule based upon number of home and away games.

How does this playoff format change the bowl system, in reality it doesnt. The bowl games can still run congruent with this playoff format but with 76 Bowl eligible FBS teams this season, that leaves 60 FBS bowl eligible programs to be selected into the remaining bowls. My next post in the coming days will have the adjusted Bowl Games with the remaining eligible FBS teams trying to stay within the bowl contractual agreements as possible.

This is what college football could possess, just like the NCAA March Madness, but in December and Traditional New Years week. The purpose of this post was to make you look at college football differently. Yes, even during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament selection, some teams do not understand why they were left out or how they are seeded the way they were. The difference is, THEY GO PLAY no matter what. They respect the system in use and earn the championship by playing out the tournament.

Please feel free to leave me quality question(s) on here, no rants or abuse will be tolerated or you can reach me through twitter at cfbpoexpert.