With the 2012 FBS college football season drawing to a close, Notre Dame has secured one of the hypothetical playoff spots in my field of 16 teams. Notre Dame’s seed position is yet to be determined. However, the 5 years of college football research in which was performed by myself, examined that from 1996 to the present, that any FBS team that earns 11+ victories are 100% guaranteed a seed within the field of 16. Since 1996, the largest number of 11-win FBS programs were 8, in 1998 and 2001. Lets not forget about Ohio State, if not placed on probation by the NCAA would have also secured a playoff spot like Notre Dame with seed to be determined. By playing by the rules, Ohio State or any FBS program could be playing for prestige, honor and national notoriety. This excludes the increases in media exposure, recruiting and financial gains by participating in additional games.
There are specific criterion that determines the field of 16 in my playoff format. Although hypothetical for now, the criteria possesses NO vested interest, NO human polls and NO computer calculations. The seed selection process is determined by multiple variables that are determined within the current season and no hypothetical situations.
The remaining 15 spots in my playoff format are still up for grabs. However, as the 2012 season concludes, the current situation is as this for the remaining spots. I will not specifically name any FBS programs currently competing for the remaining seeds, until they have actually secured one of the 16 spots. Of the current (9) 10-win FBS teams, there is an 80% significance that they secure a spot within my field by earning their 11th win. By earning the 11th win, they are 100% guaranteed to secure a spot in the filed of 16, with seeding to be determined. There is still a chance that some or all of these (10) win FBS programs lose this week staying at (10) wins. Of the current (13) 9- win FBS teams, they can become part of the (10) win with an 80% significance in securing one of the 16 playoff spots. By ending the season with 10 wins, the significance of securing one of the 16 playoff spots is significant. By ending the season as a (9) win FBS team, there is only a less than 9% significance in earning one of the 16 seeds. The largest number of 10- win FBS teams were 10 in successive years, 2006 and 2007. However, in 2007 all (10) 2-loss FBS programs made the field of 16. In 2007, of the (15) FBS teams with 2-losses (10) made the final field of 16. Does this mean that an FBS team currently with (8) wins looking for the 9th or even 10th are not being considered, No. They still have an “FAIR” opportunity to make the field of 16.
There are 2-weeks still left of the FBS football 2012 season, but many finish the regular season this coming weekend. Only the Big East, Big 12 and the Army/Navy game extends into the first weekend of December. Conference Championship games are not take into account when the selection process. I will not explain why for now.
You will surprised at who is being seeded where………..stay tune for more.
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