It’s mid-October and we are about at the half-mile pole for college football with the cream slowly rising to the top, others gaining ground and some slipping into the pack. Of the field of (128) FBS programs, there are NO Secretariat’s in this group. Ohio State remains number 1 in both of my polls. Michigan State is a close second but actually stole a victory to stay at (7-0) and with pace with Ohio State. The Big 10 has established thier dominance this year but that can change as we head into the last half of the college football season. Utah, Temple and Toledo all exchange places as they settle in behind the leaders in the third through fifth positions.
The college football season has had many great games and non-historic FBS programs earning success this season, but not receiving the media credit coverage from print, radio and televised media that they deserve. Congratulations to Memphis at (6-0) from the American Athletic Conference(AAC), a Non Power 5 or Non BCS conference member. Memphis started out being ranked in my polls at 10th and 11th, then 8th and 11th, last week 10th and 12th and this week 8th and 10th. Memphis has been consistant all season long, but no real mention in the media until now.
Yesterday, Memphis earns a program and conferene credibilty win against SEC member Mississippi. If I recall, was not Mississippi now (4-2), ranked in the top 10 in the preseason polls by the so-called experts and sports media.The only credit Mississippi has to thier credit is the win against Alabama. And NOW ESPN’s Mike and Mike and other college football shows in the sports media in print, radio and television are now showing slight interest. Seems that Memphis deserves more credit that what the media are offering. This also includes Toledo, Temple, Navy, Houston and Utah; they too deserve more media coverage. Oh wait, Toledo, Memphis, Houston, Navy and Temple are not Power 5 Conference members and are left on the back burner. Interesting that they pay the same NCAA and conference membership fees like the Power 5 conferences, compete on the same field of play as them but have to wait to receive media credibilty. That’s like the Kansas City Royals who have won the AL Central and hoping to play in thier second consecutive World Series. Interesting analogy is that the New York Yankees make the most money for MLB but finsihed behind Kansas City this season. Guess who is playing for the possibility to play in the World Series, not the Yankess. The Royals players and coaches EARNED that spot these past two seasons, not given to them. Maybe the sports media should immediately recognize when non-primary or Non-Power 5 FBS college programs are doing better than thier crystal ball expectations and predictions from the media and give them thier just due credit.
And now to this weeks rankings. There have been a few changes with FBS teams moving up, some moving down. As of the half mile pole of the FBS college football season there are (14) 0-loss and (15) 1-loss programs left in FBS colege football. From the 0-loss group; (12) are from the BCS/Power 5 Conferences and (4) are from the Non-BCS/Non-Power 5 conferences. Those (4) are Houston, Memphis and Temple all from the American Athletic Conference(AAC) and Toledo from the Mid-Amercian Conference(MAC). We know that only (1) from the AAC could emerge as the only 0-loss FBS program and still no media coverage. Below are the current rankings based upon my research and assessment on how college football should be ranked; not by popularity, confernece affiliation labels by the sports media mean nothing to me or which FBS progam generates the most revenue dollars is a non factor. Finally, congratulation to Appalachian State from the Sun Belt Conference (SBC) for cracking my Top 25. I hope they continue their success and end up at (11-1). We shall see.
Group 1 Rankings: Professional Model Theory
| OHIO STATE | (7-0) | ↔ |
| MICHIGAN STATE | (7-0) | ↔ |
| TOLEDO | (6-0) | ↑ 3 |
| UTAH | (6-0) | ↑ 1 |
| TEMPLE | (6-0) | ↓ 2 |
| IOWA | (7-0) | ↑ 1 |
| TCU | (7-0) | ↑ 1 |
| MEMPHIS | (6-0) | ↑ 2 |
| LSU | (6-0) | ↑ 5 |
| CLEMSON | (6-0) | ↑ 2 |
| FLORIDA STATE | (6-0) | ↑ 4 |
| BAYLOR | (6-0) | ↓ 1 |
| OKLAHOMA STATE | (6-0) | ↓ 4 |
| HOUSTON | (6-0) | ↑ 2 |
| WESTERN KENTUCKY | (6-1) | ↑ 2 |
| NOTRE DAME | (6-1) | ↑ 3 |
| MARSHALL | (6-1) | ↑ 6 |
| FLORIDA | (6-1) | ↓ 15 |
| ALABAMA | (6-1) | ↑ 9 |
| OKLAHOMA | (5-1) | ↑ 7 |
| STANFORD | (5-1) | ↑ 6 |
| CALIFORNIA | (5-1) | ↑ 3 |
| PITTSBURGH | (5-1) | ↑ 2 |
| DUKE | (5-1) | ↓ 2 |
| APPALACHIAN STATE | (5-1) | ↑ 1 |
Group 2: Professional Model Theory, plus one more categorical varaible
| OHIO STATE | (7-0) | ↔ |
| MICHIGAN STATE | (7-0) | ↔ |
| UTAH | (6-0) | ↑ 1 |
| TEMPLE | (6-0) | ↑ 1 |
| TOLEDO | (6-0) | ↑ 1 |
| IOWA | (7-0) | ↑ 1 |
| TCU | (7-0) | ↑ 1 |
| LSU | (6-0) | ↑ 5 |
| CLEMSON | (6-0) | ↑ 1 |
| MEMPHIS | (6-0) | ↑ 2 |
| FLORIDA STATE | (6-0) | ↑ 3 |
| OKLAHOMA STATE | (6-0) | ↓ 3 |
| BAYLOR | (6-0) | ↑ 3 |
| HOUSTON | (6-0) | ↑ 1 |
| FLORIDA | (6-1) | ↓ 12 |
| ALABAMA | (6-1) | ↑ 11 |
| NOTRE DAME | (6-1) | ↑ 2 |
| WESTERN KENTUCKY | (6-1) | ↑ 2 |
| MARSHALL | (6-1) | ↑ 6 |
| STANFORD | (5-1) | ↑ 7 |
| OKLAHOMA | (5-1) | ↑ 6 |
| CALIFORNIA | (5-1) | ↔ |
| TEXAS A&M | (5-1) | ↓ 12 |
| PITTSBURGH | (5-1) | ↑ 2 |
| APPALACHIAN STATE | (5-1) | ↑ 1 |
The remaining last half mile of this college football season is going to get very interesting with upsets, great games. close games and a wire finish in the last 2-weeks of the season. Some that are ranked in my Top 25, are more than likely not going to be there in the last poll.
If there was a 16-team playoff format based upon my research findings and my book; the group of (29) FBS programs with 0-losses and 1-losses are 100% guarenteed a spot in the field of 16 when the final season completes itself. That means at the end of the FBS season, any 0-loss or 1-loss FBS program are guaranteed a spot in my field of 16. The group of (22) FBS programs with 2-losses have an 83% chance of making the field of 16. We shall see how the last half mile plays out.
If you have any questions or comments about my rankings, please feel free to send comments to me and follow me on twitter @cfbpoexpert