Week 2 of CFP Predictions

The CFP committee will release their College Football Rankings which has a direct effect on which four (4) FBS programs, oh mis-spoke, which four (4) Group of Five FBS programs will compete for the $50 Million Dollar prize at the end, plus being called National Champion for college football at the NCAA level. I am sorry Houston, even if you are the only 0-loss program left standing at the end of the FBS season before the committee makes thier FINAL selection, you will not be invited and biasly left out based upon your classification status in college football at the FBS level in the NCAA. Eventhough you pay the same memberhsip fee to the NCAA as the Group of Five, you are not part of the “Roman Empire”. If it were me making the selection, you would be the Number 1 seed in the final rankings. The committee released their first rankings last week and I was correct on 96% percent of the selected pool or field with 8% correct on accruate placements. I will work on improving my placement accurcy this week. I selected North Carolina in the pool of 25 and the committee selected Northwestern in the pool of 25.

Let’s move to week two (2) for the CFP selection committee and I will continue to make my predictions again with an adjustment to my CFP rankings. I do believe, I have the committee figured out. Intersting, I am not in the room and I can select and rank the CFP Top 25 in a matter of minutes not days. The first rankings were released with all great quality FBS college football programs and then by the following Saturday of college football we had seven (7) of the Top 25 lose. Nerves or did those teams lose to quality FBS programs under the sports quote “on any given day ,at any given time, anyone can beat anyone”. Well that holds true.

Here is my predictions, not my rankings, on how the CFP Top 25 will look tonight from the very in-experienced CFP committee.

CFP PREDICTION in rank order

CLEMSON (9-0)
ALABAMA (8-1)
OHIO STATE (9-0)
OKLAHOMA STATE (9-0)
NOTRE DAME (8-1)
BAYLOR (8-0)
IOWA (9-0)
STANFORD (8-1)
FLORIDA (8-1)
UTAH (8-1)
OKLAHOMA (8-1)
LSU (7-1)
MEMPHIS (9-0)
TCU (8-1)
MICHIGAN (7-2)
MICHIGAN STATE (8-1)
MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-2)
NORTHWESTERN (7-2)
TEMPLE (8-1)
FLORIDA STATE (7-2)
HOUSTON (9-0)
UCLA (7-2)
NORTH CAROLINA (8-1)
MISSISSIPPI (7-3)
NAVY (7-1)

I gave my rankings some thought with this very sensitive ranking subject matter. Rather than rank this group, since $50 Million Dollars is on the line, national prestige and the trophy that comes with it. I used my athletic directors and coaches mind set to rank these teams differently. Why differently you may ask. I believe that with the pressure that comes with college athletics at this level, the money that is involved, very LIMITED access to $50 Million Dollars with 3.6% of the FBS pool being selected and the level of athletic competition; that other factors go into account for rankings. That’s why you see a 0-loss or 1-loss FBS programs lose after the first CFP ranking when you think they should not lose. The loss happens as we saw last weekend when seven (7) CFP Top 25 FBS programs lost due to the level of competition and what is on the line. Their rankings will be effected this week, that’s just common sense.

When a prestiguous program receives a high ranking in the CFP polls, attentional focus is affected, and the mind set changes based upon the number or rank associated with your ranking. That number association with your rank is a sports societal pressure. Something that the sports media has no direct relation to or comprehension skill to associate with in what it’s like to be being placed in that type of position with performance anxiety and attentional focus effected. The sports media can not even come close to what these student athletes are going through since we as a sports society place this pressure upon them. Then when the desired results do not occur the sports media places some negative affect on that program and athletes, questioning why they lost and how that will effect them in the CFP Rankings. So for me, if I were to rank the playoff eligble FBS programs I would rank them like so:

MY CFP RANKINGS, not in rank order:

BAYLOR (8-0)
CLEMSON (9-0)
HOUSTON (9-0)
IOWA (9-0)
OHIO STATE (9-0)
OKLAHOMA STATE (9-0)
ALABAMA (8-1)
FLORIDA (8-1)
LSU (7-1)
MEMPHIS (8-1)
MICHIGAN STATE (8-1)
NAVY (7-1)
NORTH CAROLINA (8-1)
NOTRE DAME (8-1)
OKLAHOMA (8-1)
STANFORD (8-1)
TCU (8-1)
TEMPLE (8-1)
TOLEDO (7-1)
UTAH (8-1)

This is my list in alphabetical order and by 0-loss and 1-loss order of FBS programs that I am considering for the four (4) CFP spots to compete for the $50 Million Dollar prize and to be called National Champion in college football at at the FBS level in the NCAA. This list places those teams on notice and does not rank them by order by hiearchal best to worst in which we as a sport society crave to have. We associate our teams by a rank in which they possess when the actual rankings by subjective systems and human voters possess NO true or valid ranking criteria in which to rank them. The rankings are opinion based not criteria based. As for the 2-loss FBS programs, I would say that you are on the watch list. I am well versed in knowing how the final numbers and statistical analysis correalte to final seaon records and how many 0-loss or 1-loss programs will remain at the end of the FBS season. So for this group of twenty (20) remaining 0-loss and 1-loss FBS teams, this is where the field of four (4) will derive from and my mock 16-team CFB playoff selection will derive from, unless we have a very small number of 0-loss and 1-loss programs.

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